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00:00A full Wednesday slate around Major League Baseball.
00:03We've got 15 games, eight of them in the afternoon,
00:06hours where that stadium is located.
00:08A ton of day baseball on this Wednesday
00:11in a huge divisional duel this week in the NLEs
00:14continues tonight in Philadelphia.
00:17It's the Phils and the Braves.
00:19Yesterday, Ranger Suarez on the bump,
00:21blanking Atlanta.
00:22The Braves did not record a run.
00:24They were shut out.
00:25The Phils take the opener by a score of two zip.
00:28Could we see something similar tonight
00:31with the Phillies' ace on the mound in Philadelphia?
00:34That being Zach Wheeler.
00:36Philadelphia booked as a minus 154 home money line favorite.
00:40Yesterday, the RS only two total runs scored,
00:43and yet the total was nine.
00:44Today, that total down to seven and a hook.
00:47What do you like for game number two
00:48between these familiar foes?
00:50If anybody out there has ever listened to the Howard Stern show,
00:53you know, the famous character Beetlejuice
00:55and the Whack Pack, Ben, how about this one?
00:56Hey, Atlanta, what are you going to do tonight?
00:58Nothing.
01:00Hanging out.
01:00That's what you're going to do against Zach Wheeler.
01:02He's going to set you up and sit you down tonight.
01:04Here's the issue.
01:05This game's not even going to be played, though.
01:07It is a terrible rainy forecast tonight in Philadelphia,
01:10and maybe a much-needed break here for the Atlanta Braves
01:12that are going to get Zach Wheeler on the mound,
01:14whether it's today or tomorrow.
01:16But you look at Zach Wheeler.
01:16He's been nothing short of spectacular.
01:18If Ranger Suarez went there and laid waste to that lineup,
01:22where did he get a hold of Zach Wheeler?
01:23Like, what's the best effort out of the Braves tonight?
01:24Like, six innings and maybe you scrape together two runs at this point?
01:29That certainly doesn't hold up.
01:30Now, the question's going to be on the Phillies side.
01:32A.J. Smith-Schalver is an okay pitcher.
01:34He's had a decent season here.
01:35That's a good Phillies lineup.
01:36But is Bryce Harper going to be back in this lineup tonight,
01:39or is he going to miss a day with the contusion to the elbow
01:41that he took the pitch off yesterday?
01:43Which, thank goodness, the X-Rays for Phillies fans
01:45and Phillies backers came up negative here.
01:47The Phillies are the better team.
01:48How much you want to lay, that's interesting.
01:49But also understand this, too, Ben.
01:51If we do have a game underway tonight, and you have Zach Wheeler,
01:55and that's the reason why you bet the Philadelphia Phillies,
01:57and you play two innings, and there's a 45-minute rain delay,
02:00and he doesn't come out, now it's bullpen on bullpen,
02:03you lost your advantage in that game.
02:05So, for me, it is a stay away.
02:06If it was bright and sunny and nice tonight at the start of the game,
02:10you know what?
02:10Zach Wheeler's going to win this game, and the Phillies will go away,
02:12and I'll take that price point.
02:13But the fact that there's rain in the forecast where I don't think it's going to play,
02:16and if it does, I might lose Zach Wheeler, yeah, I'm not interested in this game at all.
02:20The Titans have the best record in the National League, 35-19,
02:24a game and a half better than anybody else, including in their own division.
02:28That would be the New York Mets, a game and a half lead for Philadelphia,
02:32minus 110 the price for the Phillies to win the National League East title.
02:36Of course, Atlanta maybe not even focused on the division,
02:39placed on Fork Watch on this Wednesday, May 28, 2025.
02:44The Braves, three games sub-500, 25-28, just trying to be a playoff team by the end of 2025.
02:5334-21, the record for the Mets, and two other teams around the NL tied for second best.
02:58The Chicago Cubs and the National League Central, and the World Series favorites,
03:02the L.A. Dodgers, 34-21, victorious in each of their first two games so far this week.
03:08In Cleveland, seeking a sweep with some afternoon baseball in the land against the Guardians.
03:14Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for Dave Roberts at L.A.
03:17The Dodgers booked as greater than a dollar and a half favorite on that money line.
03:22DRS, did you check the number on Shohei Otani to go yard once again?
03:27Plus 190 for a guy that has hit a home run in three consecutive games
03:32and has 20 dingers this year, the most in Major League Baseball.
03:35Rain in the forecast again as we sit here in late May.
03:39Temperatures in the 50s with a light wind blowing out to left field to see if this game,
03:42we're expected to play, but again, we're just not getting the opportunity where you love RBI,
03:47you love home runs here of getting that through.
03:49Now, Clayton Kershaw hasn't been good by any stretch so far in the Major League Baseball season,
03:52but once again, he's only faced 26 total batters.
03:55The one thing they have to like about that for Kershaw's side is
03:58the Cleveland Guardians haven't really shown up over the past month, Ben, against left-handed pitchers.
04:01The only positives there, Jose Ramirez, who's a switch hitter, he'll be batting from the right-hand side,
04:05but everybody else really not in love with what they're providing right now,
04:09which is never a good thing when you're facing the Los Angeles Dodgers.
04:11Kobe Allard on the mound is who I'm showing here.
04:13Only 69 batters that he's faced on the season.
04:16Has done very well, ISO and weighted on base percentage-wise,
04:19but a low K rate at that point tends to get you in trouble.
04:22The Dodgers should win this game, even with Clayton Kershaw on the mound,
04:25but again, cool temperatures, rain in the forecast, just not advantageous to get a clean look.
04:31Two pitchers that can be hit.
04:32I just wish we had some better conditions,
04:34so maybe Cleveland could show up with a couple runs here as well today.
04:37PRS, the offense for LA, at least in this midweek set against the Guardians,
04:41has not been wanting for anything, fighting seven runs in the opener,
04:46nine runs yesterday in the 9-5 win.
04:48It's funny, Shohei Otani, three consecutive games with a home run, as we have shared.
04:52He's only had one base hit in each of those three games.
04:55It just happened to be a very long one that has flown over the wall.
04:59More day baseball today in Detroit.
05:02Better weather in the Motor City, my guess would be maybe not great.
05:06The Tigers, an ever-so-slight home favorite, minus 116 against the San Francisco Giants.
05:12The Tigers have taken each of the first two games in this midweek set,
05:15DRS, by the same exact final score, 3-1.
05:18A little bit stronger of a favorite now at minus 116 than you see on your screen.
05:23Total is eight.
05:24What's the weather look like today in Motown?
05:26Not really.
05:27I mean, the chances as the game goes on, more rain creeps into the forecast.
05:31But again, we're in the 50s with a double-digit wind blowing in from right field.
05:34So again, you're seeing yourself, all right, well, Landon Raup has been a decent pitcher
05:37on the season so far.
05:39Struggles a little bit lately with left-handed batters.
05:41Oh, that's perfect, right?
05:42Kerry Carpenter, Cole Keith, Riley Green in that lineup.
05:44They should be able to do some damage.
05:46But again, hitting into the teeth of the wind, not necessarily a great thing.
05:49Those balls that are getting hit to the wall, it's like, no, could have been three or four
05:53seats back.
05:53It's a home run, turns into an out at that point.
05:56So it's almost like a no-go for me looking at offensive statistics.
05:59But then Jackson Jobe on the other side, not a great pitcher by himself.
06:02Struggles against left-handed batters.
06:04You're going to have multiple left-handed batters, but not a great lineup here for the
06:07San Francisco Giants entering in this game the same way we talked about it yesterday.
06:11Heliot Ramos has good statistics.
06:12Willie Adamas has good statistics.
06:14But they're also right-handed batters.
06:15This game should have the tendency to go over with these two pitchers on the mound
06:19matching up to these lineups, which again, I don't like from a San Francisco side.
06:23But just having those weather conditions, cold with maybe rain creeping in, I always
06:27have this as well because Major League Baseball understands the task at hand.
06:31It is a business.
06:32The last thing you want to do is start this baseball game and have it play for seven hours
06:36with multiple rain delays, which means the umpires behind the plate, that's usually a
06:41ball, and that's a strike today, boys.
06:42So I take the under eight in this game, knowing that they have to get this in before the rain
06:46creeps in, and they'll try to get it done as fast as possible.
06:49Best record in Major League Baseball.
06:51That still remains.
06:52The Detroit Tigers at 36-20.
06:54The victory yesterday, DRS, 3-1, but some bad news.
06:58Matt Bierling, who is having a great year at the dish for Detroit, placed on the IL with
07:02a shoulder issue.
07:04Wenzel Perez, though, making his MLB debut in 2025 for Detroit, or at least his season debut
07:10this season for the Tigers yesterday, didn't hit a home run in his first at-bat of the
07:15year.
07:15More about the bigs up next.
07:17A quick correction for something that one of the hosts, not going to name names, said
07:21on the early line in our last segment, that Matt Bierling back on the IL for Detroit,
07:25not exactly having the greatest season.
07:27He's only played in four games.
07:29He's only had 11 at-bats.
07:31But tough injury news for the Tigers, nonetheless.
07:34Again, not going to point fingers at who made that critical mistake here on this Wednesday
07:38morning on TEL.
07:40It is Skins Day 35 in the history of Major League Baseball.
07:45Out in Arizona, the Pirates taking on the D-backs.
07:48A 3.41 p.m.
07:50Eastern time start.
07:51That's some afternoon baseball in downtown Phoenix.
07:54Zach Gowan gets the start for Arizona.
07:57On the other side, of course, it is Paul Skins.
08:00Not often, DRS, you see Paul Skins get a start for Pittsburgh, and the Buccos not be
08:05booked as the favorites, even on the road.
08:07The nod goes to Gowan and the Diamondbacks today.
08:10Minus 134, that updated money line price, a total of 7.5.
08:15What can we expect from Paul Skins?
08:17What can we expect in this matchup out in the desert?
08:20That is a low number at 7.5, but isn't it warranted, right?
08:22Like, as long as somebody has a pulse opposite Paul Skins, you're probably getting an under
08:26because that lineup can't hit.
08:27Like, O'Neal Cruz against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days, he's been great.
08:32A .245 ISO and a .399 weighted on base percentage.
08:35But outside of that, you don't get anything back.
08:38And if you take a look at Zach Gowan looking to regain that form, he's been filthy against
08:41left-handed batters, which in the lineup tonight is Cruz, is Reynolds, is Horowitz, is Frazier.
08:46So at least four of those guys will be lefties.
08:48The question is, can some of those right-handed bats start to break through?
08:51And nobody in that lineup from the right side actually peaks my, what, Henry Davis with a .343
08:56weighted on base percentage for only 22 at-bats, batting ninth in the lineup.
09:00It's supposed to scare me.
09:01Now, we always like the Arizona lineup all the way through.
09:03Regardless of lefty or righty pitching, there's a lot of talent there.
09:06But you're getting one of the most, if not the most talented, pitcher in Major League Baseball
09:10that doesn't have to worry about pitching in 62-degree weather.
09:13He's going to be in a dome out there on the West Coast, full gas probably for seven total innings.
09:18I don't see this game getting the eight runs, and it's not the fault of these lineups.
09:21You have two good pitchers, one lineup that is horrendous, and one lineup that's hoping
09:24they just wait Paul Skeens out.
09:26That's how I see it today.
09:27I don't know if we get the eight runs.
09:28It would be a surprise if we did.
09:30Three and five, the record four Skeens this year with a .236 ERA.
09:35Of course, they have had to already address potential speculation around a trade for Paul Skeens.
09:42They have said they are not interested in doing so at this moment.
09:46DRS yesterday for the Pittsburgh Pirates in Arizona after losing the opener and getting
09:51shut out, no surprise once again.
09:54The Buccos scored nine runs.
09:56That was their most in a single game since April 22nd.
10:03Over a month since the Pirates scored nine runs.
10:07And I believe, as I'm doing a quick check here, no, they did score 10 back in the middle
10:11of April, but that ties their second highest run output of the year with nine runs plated
10:16yesterday.
10:17Let's head to Tampa, DRS.
10:19We're the only other team at .500 in the American League East, not named the New York Yankees,
10:25resides right now.
10:26The Rays in a matchup today with some, I believe, afternoon baseball indeed against the Minnesota
10:31Twins, minus 112 as a slight pick-em-ish favorite against the Twins.
10:37Pablo Lopez on the bump for Minnesota.
10:39Drew Matt Rasmussen on the other side for Tampa.
10:42Total stands at eight.
10:44What's the play in the rubber match today in Tampa?
10:47It's a shame, too, because you look at that eight and say, oh, what's that, bad weather?
10:50No, it's 91 degrees at first pitch.
10:52These are the games that the Major League Baseball worries about, but you have to have getaway
10:55games.
10:55And if it's in a dome, it doesn't matter.
10:57If it's at night, it's a little bit cooler.
10:58But this is an afternoon game, roasting and also double-digit wins blowing out to center
11:02field.
11:03Here's the issue, though, if you want runs.
11:04Pablo Lopez coming into his last 30 days, Ben, 114 batters he's faced.
11:08How about an ISO of 087 and a weighted-on-base percentage of 236 and a K-rate of 30 percent?
11:14You take a look at him in some analytical numbers.
11:16How about an 80 XFIP minus and an XFIP of 3.25 on the season?
11:22Now, you flip it over and have Rasmussen.
11:24They even had a household name, and he's getting touched up a bit by lefties over the past 30
11:28days.
11:28But on his season, Ben, how about an 86 XFIP minus?
11:31And you take a look at his overall production here on the season of a 128 ISO against and
11:36a 272 weighted-on-base percentage.
11:38But as I said, leaking a little bit here over the past 30 days, which then puts me back in
11:43and saying, all right, can I get a pick-em price or right around a plus price here on
11:46Minnesota?
11:47That's probably the way I would lean because the better pitcher.
11:49And also, if I'm looking for a single RBI prop in this game or maybe two of them, I'm
11:53looking for the left-hand side for Minnesota today.
11:55Trevor Larnock, a 183 ISO power number to weighted-on-base percentage of .352 over his
12:00last 30 days against right-handed pitching.
12:01But how about former Philly and former great son of Roger Clemens, Cody Clemens?
12:06Wow.
12:0650 at-bats against right-handed pitching over the past month, Ben?
12:09How about a .422 ISO and a .487 weighted-on-base percentage?
12:13Maybe a chance for a home run out of Larnock or Clemens today.
12:16But no doubt, one of those two guys probably getting an RBI in the heat and humidity down in
12:20Tampa.
12:20The rubber match today in Tampa.
12:22Again, the Twins on May 2nd, 13-20.
12:26They then rattled off 13 consecutive wins.
12:29They are now 30-24, 17-4 since May 2nd.
12:34Hour number three, up next.
12:36Hone number three, up next.
12:54After all, on Piano Coco Pialco.