- 7/1/2025
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00:00the first day of july some might call it the dog days of summer despite us hyping up everything
00:06around football here in this month but drs on this first day of july what a week we have and
00:14what a slate we have in major league baseball a very full slate on this tuesday with some great
00:22aces on the bump in arms all around mlb one of the best teams in the month of june that was the
00:29milwaukee brewers they take that strong june record and now only trolling the cubs by just a few games
00:35in the nl central today to city field where the end of june for the new york mets was dismal the
00:43mets were 45 and 24 on june 12th the best record in major league baseball from that point on to end
00:50out the month three and 13 can they find their way back to the win column today as an ever so slight
00:58home favorite against the brew crew total is eight and a half it's a minus 124 price now
01:04on the money line how does this series begin on a tuesday now in july will the calendar flipping
01:11be a good sign for new york yeah hopefully it is just a fresh beginning and a fresh start here in
01:17the month of july because they need some wins here the philadelphia phillies continue to play good
01:20baseball here outside of that outlandish terrible streak at the plate they picked up a couple wins
01:24now sit two games above the new york mets in the win column there for first place if we are looking
01:29at clay holmes on the mound the one thing he's had a decent season overall he comes in let's just say
01:34the last 45 days in major league baseball 103 x fit minus number which is average of 4.34 excuse me
01:40a uh hold on i read the wrong one there 2.75 yora which is really good but that x fit number ben is a
01:46little bit high the x fit minus number slightly above average at a 112 here here's the issue clay holmes has
01:52really been struggling with left-handed batters so the first thing i look at which left-handed batter
01:56do i always like in that lineup tonight for the milwaukee brewers it's kristin yelich a 254 iso power
02:02number a 443 weighted on base percentage over his last 65 at bats over the past month against right
02:07handed pitchers which clay holmes is and also if you go down that lineup there isaac collins who is
02:11a switch hitter hold back from the left hand side tonight his last 59 at bats ben as they weighted
02:16on base percentage of 382 against right-handed pitchers the one thing i have to say is every day
02:20typically that middle of that order always looks really good for the new york mets freddie peralta
02:25on the mound his last 45 days a 101 x fit minus he's been averaging era decent at 3.19 that x fit number
02:33of 410 brandon nimmo won soto peter alonzo jeff mcneil all with really good numbers against right
02:38handed pitchers but you take a look at freddie peralta's last 113 batter's face he's got a 176 iso
02:44against which is slightly elevated but only a 290 weighted on base percentage and a decent k rate i'm sorry
02:49like right now you just can't say sooner than later the mets are going to bust out the brewers
02:54playing good baseball i take them at home again tonight but more than importantly my favorite
02:58play probably christian yelich rbi once again tonight the rays lost last night at home against
03:04the a's to end out june 17 and 10 the brewers were 16 and 9 in the month of june matching tampa for that
03:11second best record behind the houston astros but in fact drs it dates back even further than that for
03:18the brew crew three games sub 500 25 and 28 on may 24th they've won 22 of 31 from that point and
03:26again it is why milwaukee enters this month of july just two games back of the chicago cubs for that
03:33top spot in the national league central speaking of the top spot in the national league east the
03:38mets trail the phillies by two games the phills behind another dominant outing by zach wheeler last
03:44night eight innings of shutout baseball king 10 they got that victory to start off their series
03:51planking the san diego padres today it's one of donnie's favorites pitching nick provetta on the
03:56bump in philadelphia but christopher sanchez on the other side for the fightings minus 162 that home
04:03money line price in favor of philly in philly total is eight and a half will the phillies make it two
04:09straight against san diego here to start off this midweek set yes they will they're going to win this
04:14game again like them yesterday run line minus one and a half just got burned a little bit on that
04:17team total over four and a half they scored four runs had the three run home run taken away but
04:21they had the four runs by the fifth inning so again six seventh and eighth innings no runs there but a
04:25victory still for the philadelphia phillies let's understand something again the phillies every single
04:30day they are better than your rotation and that includes christopher sanchez will be on the mound
04:35today his last 45 days been in major league baseball how about an expert minus number of 71 it's
04:40stellar that's second best on the card today in era over the past 45 days 2.68 an x whip up 2.83
04:47nothing short of spectacular and let's look at the optics here of how he got to those numbers his last
04:52133 batters that he's faced how about a walk percentage only 4.5 percent how about an iso power
04:58number of 064 a weighted on base percentage of 233 and a k rate of 25 percent he's been spectacular this
05:05entire season louis rise manny machado jackson merrill plus batters with weighted on base percentage
05:10against left-handed pitching the rest of that lineup is terrible now flip it over to the phillies
05:14because we do like what pavetta has done and on the card today ben over the past 45 days he does
05:19come in seventh on the card in 83 x fit minus a 3.66 uh era to go with a 3.33 x fit number you look
05:27at the lineup today it's better for the phillies than it is for the padres so understand this better
05:32lineup for the phillies better pitcher on the mound even though pavetta is a good one sanchez is better
05:36you see that eight and a half total it's 81 degrees with the wind blowing out and maybe the
05:40san diego bats wake up but you saw what you saw last night four to nothing final i'm not saying four
05:45to nothing tonight but i don't think we get nine runs so i do think the phillies win it's a higher
05:50price but i don't think we get the nine runs regardless if the phillies win or not i'm taking the
05:54under in philadelphia i like that look drs eight and a half is the total yesterday out in arizona
06:01a divisional duel began between the giants and the d-backs ryan nelson the starter for the snakes
06:06actually got the better of the giants starter logan webb and san francisco was a road favorite
06:11in the opener arizona wins four to two tonight out in the desert between the d-backs and the giants
06:18zach gallon on the mound for arizona and this time the diamondbacks are a home favorite at minus 134
06:25total nine and a half what's the play in this desert duel yeah birds only gallon 18
06:31and 19 on the card today with the x fit minuses each of 117 and 113 respectively zach gallon take
06:37a look at his numbers the past 30 days i mean iso power number to both lefties and righties high
06:42weighted on base percentage high here low k rate very unzac gallon like he hasn't really performed
06:46all that well but let's always focus there on that arizona lineup which we love a lot of guys in
06:51that lineup swiss army knives can hit from the left side or the right side bird song really struggles
06:55with left-handed batters for domo martay smith nailer you take a look at those first four guys
07:01in the lineup all lefties they should do some damage why not a total out in the desert tonight
07:05i just told you in philadelphia i don't like runs i think we might be getting runs out there in arizona
07:09tonight ben oh okay only six yesterday maybe some more offense out in phoenix tonight we continue our full
07:18breakdown next it's a holiday for our friends north of the border if it's our independence day on
07:26friday today is canada day july 1st 2025 up in toronto when really all of canada as the blue jays
07:36are playing host with some day baseball drs 306 p.m eastern time to start today in our first
07:43of 15 games on this tuesday for toronto hosting the new york yankees max fried gets the start for
07:51the pinstripes who are a road favorite tonight or this afternoon in toronto no love for candidate
07:58canada day that celebrates the union of the canadian provinces back in 1867 and its sovereignty
08:07as a true nation under the british empire the dominion of canada as it was known back in 1867
08:16will those darn yankees play spoiler to the blue jays on canada day yeah look i mean the kind of can
08:23do two things right this week they can celebrate today ben and on the 4th of july if they play their
08:27cards right that's my drift here at this point so let's get to the handicap here on the yankees and
08:33the toronto blue jays winning all over the place and by the way you do have an afternoon game you
08:37can enjoy that you know you don't enjoy max fried's on the mound the man has been absolutely filthy
08:41outstanding since signing as a free agent from the atlanta braves here take a look at his last 45 days
08:46an era of 2.81 an xfif number of 63 and x excuse me an xfif minus of 63 and the xfif 2.62 here you look
08:54at galsman on the mound he's been okay ben you take a look at the era 4.44 don't love that all that much
09:00over the past 45 days a 93 xfif minus which isn't bad and a 380 xfif number the yankees lineup here
09:06ben rice aaron judge cody bellinger jazz chisholm anthony volpe over the past month very good iso power
09:12numbers it's hard like that's a heavy number for a road team in the yankees that aren't playing that
09:17great a base was of late which means the offense needs to start waking up just a little bit more
09:21but for my money in this game i'm not betting against max reed he has been tremendous i give that
09:26lean to the new york yankees today in a nice weather should be open today 82 degrees with
09:30a light wind blowing out the right field that should help those yankee bats as well give me
09:33the yanks today to take care of business against the jays max free this year drs in his first year
09:39up in the bronx of course today rano is 10 and 2 that ties tarik skubel for the most wins in the
09:45bigs with a 192 era second best era in baseball only behind houston's hunter brown it was the blue jays
09:54though edging out the yankees yesterday three rbis from vladimir guerrero jr toronto winning the
10:00opener of this divisional duel this week 5-4 yesterday on a monday mike the festivities continue
10:07for toronto on this tuesday canada day not exactly like the easiest phrasing say canada day 10 times
10:15fast canada day canada day canada day it just kind of rolls all in one they shoot fireworks
10:21and exciting what do they do barbecue i think so what do they do up there oh wow okay big week
10:28just like i thought you might say up there though in the great white north drs two teams that have
10:34struggled this year face off once again tonight in arlington and neither team has been great the
10:40rangers have been putrid offensively and yet you said that based on the pitching matchup yesterday in
10:47the opener this week between the orioles and the rangers might we see some runs we did baltimore
10:52beating texas 10 to 6 in extra innings despite adolis garcia hitting a tying three-run home run in the
11:02home half of the 10th and certainly pimped that shot today game number two this week between texas and
11:09baltimore and as we look at the starting pitching matchup jacob de grom is out there for the rangers
11:15third best era in baseball for the veteran in de grom a 208 number his last outing he took a no hit
11:22bid into the eighth inning will we continue to see stellar pitching on the bump today for de grom in
11:28texas yeah what year is this right now is he pitching back for the match is he the best pitcher
11:32major league baseball that's what you're getting right now his last 116 batters ben that he's faced
11:37over the past 30 days a microscopic 0.009 iso against and a 176 weighted on base percentage
11:46he's giving up nothing here and a k rate of 28 now the baltimore orioles over the past month
11:51have actually hit right into pitching extremely well a lot of high isos and weighted on base
11:55percentages there but as you know pitching usually be a really good pitching really usually beats hot
11:59bats at that point and the other side brandon young's on the mound only has 18 at bats against him
12:04over the past 30 days but on the season only 16 in totality a 240 iso against and a weighted on base
12:09percentage of 419 and a 15 percent walk right there and a k rate under 20 percent sounds to me like a
12:16run line first five innings here that you need to take on jacob de grom texas should be up at the end
12:21of five about the bullpens eight and a half the total yesterday you probably do feel bad if you did bet
12:27the under as it was 3 3 at the end of regulation we saw 10 of those 16 runs scored in extras plenty
12:36more around this full tuesday slate in the bigs next last night out in the pacific northwest big
12:42dumper went deep for the first time in seven games cal raleigh hitting his mlb best 33rd home run of the
12:49season and seattle beat kansas city 6 to 2 tonight in the northwest my big dumper start to go on a
12:57streak minus 136 the price in favor of seattle against michael lorenzen and the royals once again
13:04on this tuesday evening eight and a half drs is that total last night nearly 80 degrees by the time we
13:11reached first pitch out in seattle then at the end of june that's warm for a night game there for the ems
13:18what are we seeing on this tuesday night out in the northwest yeah about 77 at first pitch tonight
13:23so still nice but the wind tonight blowing in at eight miles per hour to right field but again stadium
13:27it's really not that big of an impact whatsoever you take a look at michael lorenzen one of my
13:31favorite pitchers to fade here he comes in on the card over the last 45 days for me ben 25th out of 27
13:36pitchers today a 119 x fit minus a 6.62 era and a 4.85 x fit number so yes right in the middle of that
13:45lineup here is a right-handed pitcher here for lorenzen will be cal raleigh switch hitter will be
13:49batting lefty how has michael lorenzen done against lefties in the past 30 days how about a 315 iso and
13:54a 382 weighted on base percentage and a low k rate hello cal raleigh 329 iso 404 weighted on base
14:01percentage his last 83 at bats against right-handed pitching and the lineup doesn't look great here per se
14:08for the mariners but cal raleigh he looks fantastic now emerson hancock on the opposite side not a great
14:13pitcher either ben his last 45 days a 117 x fit minus which is above average bobby wick great
14:19numbers against right into pitching vinnie pasquantino and salvador perez but if we are
14:23looking at the matchups here hancock over the past 30 days ben to right-handed batters he's been really
14:28good to left-handed batters leaky to say the least a 338 iso against and a weighted on base percentage
14:34of 383 a low k rate and a high walk rate that puts the pass watch right there in the crosshairs tonight
14:40with a 206 iso and a 440 weighted on base percentage with only a 6 k rate over 72 at bats
14:47against right-handed pitching so how about this two lefties in the lineup tonight cal raleigh one side
14:52vinnie p on the other side one of those guys is at least getting an rbi and you're going to take down
14:56that plus money up there in the pacific northwest tonight we love big dumper plus 220 to hit yet another
15:03dinger on this tuesday to start off july but we still love vinnie pasquantino vinnie p the past
15:10watch has been our guy here on tel now each of the previous two mlb seasons plus 220 the price by the
15:18way on raleigh to hit his 34th home run of the season 33 by the end of july one of five players
15:26the rs now in mlb history to have at least 33 homers by the end of june how about that for raleigh
15:34joining this company sammy sosa ken griffey jr who each had 33 by the way by the end of june
15:41barry bonds who had 39 and mark mcguire who had 37 as the five players ever to have at least 33 home runs
15:50by the start of the month of july skeins day 36 in mlb history tonight inside pnc park for the
15:59pittsburgh pirates who played at seven yesterday drs against the cardinals the pirates scored at least
16:05seven runs in their final four games of june that was in their final four in their first 23 games of
16:13june they scored at least seven runs only three times the pirates with some power they've won four
16:19straight skeins on the bump trying to bounce back from arguably the worst performance of his short
16:25but successful mlb career last week he gave up four earned in an inning for the first time in his
16:32career pittsburgh a hefty home favorite today against st louis minus 168 now that updated money line price
16:39total seven and a half how do you break down the matchup between the buckos and the redbirds
16:43yeah game i liked yesterday too to go over the total ben it was only eight and a half i told you before
16:47the game pittsburgh would plate seven say oh i just need two runs out of st louis that's fine yeah
16:51st louis didn't even score yesterday they were horrific at the plate and you know they get today
16:55it's paul skeins on the mound and also paul skeins fresh off a start where he wasn't that good so
16:59looking for a bounce back but if you take a look at skeins last 45 days impeccable man even with those
17:04four i think earned runs he gave up over that last start here a 1.58 era which is spectacular and you
17:10take a look at some of those analytical numbers a 74 x fit minus number whole fit right in good
17:15hitting conditions though by the way in pittsburgh today out at pnc 77 degree temperatures light wind
17:19blowing out to left field which should help palante on the mound also not a bad pitcher his last 40 up 49
17:25excuse me 45 days and 89 x fit minus number so if i look at last night and the pittsburgh bats are hot
17:31sometimes you just want to ride them they do win this baseball game but it is a heavy favorite but i also
17:36look and say i don't know if we're going to get a total because i think skeins will hold it down against
17:41that lineup for the cardinals and maybe coming back down to earth for the pirates is scoring
17:45four runs in this game that's seven and a half i'm not sure we get to eight runs but you know what
17:50i probably would even look towards a first five inning run line pittsburgh's saying hot on offense
17:55they can scrape out two or three runs possibly against palante i just think skeins has a chance for
17:59a really good bounce back performance here and taking it the distance meaning seven innings pitched
18:04maybe nine or ten strikeouts and two to three runs maximum which would mean maybe a three to one two
18:09two to one victory here at the end of five innings i like the pittsburgh pirates first five innings
18:13run line in this game for the win love that look drs you're probably going to have to pay a little
18:18bit more in chalk in terms of that first five inning run line or not maybe chalk because run line is
18:23what we're going with there laying the half of run money line certainly with paul skeins on the bump
18:28pittsburgh playing better offense heating up but still 36 and 50 the record for the buckos this year
18:35third worst around the national league the cubbies are in that top spot drs in the national league
18:41central but once a large divisional lead dwindling down to just two games as we enter july in front
18:47of milwaukee the cubs were mediocre in june literally mediocre even 500 13 and 13 now on the first day of
18:56july the guardians were awful 32 and 26 after it went on june 1st maybe just maybe providing a little
19:04bit of a test or a challenge to the tigers atop the american league central the rs from that point
19:108 and 16 and out the month of june today the guardians head to the friendly confines to take
19:17on the cubbies where matthew boyd and the cubs have the favorites minus 180 total is eight what's
19:23the play today in wrigley yeah right around 80 degree temperatures now the wind is blowing in but
19:28when we say blowing in three to four miles per hour not really going to have an impact on this game
19:32gavin williams is an interesting one to sort of fade because on the card over the past 45 days if
19:36you just look today 27 total pitchers ben he's 24th on the card with an exit of 4.81 but his era
19:42is 3.03 exit minus is higher so you say sooner than later he should get hit why does he survive well
19:49he's not a great strikeout pitcher does walk too many guys which means ball is in play and you're
19:53offering free pass is never a good thing but how does he escape those things he's a ground ball pitcher
19:5857 of the 117 at bat see face span all were ground balls so if you're not hitting the ball in the air
20:04at wrigley good things tend to happen for you in your defense which includes double plays but you
20:08also are looking at that cubs lineup that has done very well against right-handed pitching specifically
20:12with the first five guys in the lineup hap tucker suzuki and armstrong great isos great way to don't
20:17base percentages here and also including michael bush with a 379 iso over the past 30 days against
20:23right-handed pitching boy it has been a solid pitcher this year not spectacular but we just look
20:27at that guardians lineup and say boy that's just not the lineup that we thought it was going to be
20:31at the beginning of the season the trust level for me much much more on the cubs so instead of
20:36saying i want to lay like the minus 175 or higher whatever it might be at game time here a couple of
20:40rbi props to start that line it make a lot of sense here if you're just trying to zero in at the
20:44best of the number if i just go hap and also tucker one and two in that lineup with the high
20:50icers and weighted on base percentages chance for a home run chance for an rbi very high from those
20:54two guys like p crow armstrong like bush but if i'm just picking two i'm going one two give me as
20:59many of bats as i possibly can get one of those guys will get an rbi tonight cleveland dropped their
21:04final four games in june the tigers now have an 11 and a half game lead atop the american league
21:09central and are matching the la dodgers for the best record in baseball at 53 and 32 the dodgers red
21:16hot to end out june they won 12 of their last 15 and who do they get to start off july the white
21:23socks and probably some more wins greater than a three dollar price tonight in favor of la at chavez
21:29ravine the rs is there really much to say about this one no there's not just take some left-handed
21:34batters in that lineup for the dodgers they'll come through a tiny he's got great numbers gets
21:37right-handed pitching so does max muncie and the one thing shane smith can't do over the past 30 days
21:41is get left-handed batters out freddie freeman you might be able to take a flyer not good numbers but
21:46that's third in the lineup man there's gonna be ducks on the pond to knock in so left-handed
21:50batters for me on the dodgers hammer time seven and a half game lead for la in the nl west miles
21:57erlich joins us up next
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