MLB Best Bets: Twins' Streak, Orioles' Struggle, and More!

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00:00A short Thursday slayed around Major League Baseball here on the early line to break down

00:05for you. Only six games on the docket as of this moment. DRS, the hottest team in Major League

00:10Baseball. That's the Minnesota Twins, winners of 10 consecutive games. The Twins becoming the

00:15first team this year in 2025 in the bigs to win 10 games in a row. Now, can they make it 11 straight

00:23today as they wrap up their series in Baltimore inside Camden Yards against an Orioles team

00:29man, 15 and 26 now after getting swept in the doubleheader yesterday by Minnesota. Minus

00:36132, the money line price for the O's to avoid the series sweep and to snap that Minnesota

00:4210 game win streak. Nine is the total. What do we see this afternoon? 1236 PM Eastern time

00:49scheduled first pitch in Baltimore. Hoping to see some runs here, particularly the Baltimore

00:53Orioles, because again, their lineup still screams like they should be able to get base hits.

00:58They should be able to win baseball games, but it just hasn't turned out in their favor.

01:01Now, over the past 30 days, Jackson Holiday today, Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O'Hearn all

01:05lining up as lefties should be able to do some damage against Chris Paddock. You take a look

01:09at Paddock today, only 12 pitchers that are listed on the card for me, a 122 XFIP minus

01:13and an XFIP number of 4.95 of the ERA that matches up in the high fours. But you also take

01:19a look at Paddock on the season so far, 170 batters he's faced, a 155 ISO and a 302 weighted

01:25on base percentage, which isn't bad. You take that now for the last 30 days, 110 batters

01:30he's faced. It's actually a 130 ISO, which is improved and a 259 weighted on base percentage,

01:34which is improved as well. So now you're looking at today, the analytics side of it, which says

01:39he should be able to get hit versus the actual things that are happening on the field like

01:42ERA, which shows he has that underway or calming right now. 74 degrees, three mile an hour wind

01:48blowing out. I'm more likely to say over in this game, you take a look at Sagano on the

01:52mound for Baltimore. He's got a 106 XFIP minus, which is much less than Paddock's 122. He also

01:57has an ERA of 2.72, but he does have that XFIP number hovering around a 4.31. So he's getting

02:04a little bit lucky at that point. The Minnesota batters today, first four in the lineup look pretty

02:08darn good. Buxton, Larnock, Jeffers and Lee, all high ISO and weighted on base.

02:12Percentages. But again, you're looking at Sagano, what he's given up on the season. So

02:16far, ISO power numbers, slightly higher to lefties, but outside of that, he's really kept

02:21it down. The reason that gets them in trouble, Ben, which gets a lot of major league baseball

02:24pitchers in trouble. It's not the walks, which he doesn't have, but the strikeout margin,

02:2914% of the batters, he faces strikeout, which means a lot of balls in play, which usually can

02:34do damage to yourself. 1235 starts. Sometimes you're superstitious on these early games, but

02:38this game probably should go over. And by the way, Baltimore slightly into them as well.

02:43Minus 132 on that money line price. The O's need to stack up some wins. DRS, let me ask

02:49you a question about Baltimore here as well. They enter 2025, riding the optimism of this

02:55young core, only behind the New York Yankees with the second best price to win the American

02:59League pennant. Now 15 and 26, a 28 to one number. It is the fifth longest price in the American

03:08League. Is it too little, too late already this early in the season in the middle of May? Or is

03:14there enough time for the Orioles to turn this thing around? There's enough time to turn it around,

03:19but it's not really like the batters will turn around fine. They're talented one through nine.

03:23They really are. And a couple of guys coming back off the IL that they should get back,

03:27which would help. It's just that frontline starting pitching. Like you no longer look at them and say,

03:30hey, they have two or three hammers up top. Like you get Corbin Burns. It's like, okay,

03:34well, now he's gone at this point. It's like, oh, where do we go from here? That's where the

03:37struggles are. The hitting will be fine. The pitch is what we really worry about, though.

03:41When we look at the rest of the games on the slate, the in-state rivalry starts today. A

03:46four-game set in Arlington between the Rangers and the Astros. Really good pitching matchup in this

03:51one, at least on paper. Houston sends out its second ace, if you will, in Hunter Brown. Jacob

03:58DeGrom, who has won three consecutive outings, gets the start for the Rangers. Texas

04:03has won five straight games, the RS, as they start this four-game slate against the

04:08Strohs. They're a slight favorite at home, minus 122. What do you like?

04:12Yeah, taking a look at the lineups today, and he's going up against Jacob DeGrom. He's had a

04:15very good season. A little bit leaky against left-handed batters, but if you're just looking

04:18for Houston Astros as a total, like what I tell you, if Jose Altuve doesn't match up as one of the

04:24worst batters in the lineup, you wouldn't figure that. But over the last 30 days against right-handed

04:28pitching, he hasn't done all that well. But Peña, Paredes, Walker, Diaz,

04:32Caratini, Myers, Desenzo, all have elevated weighted on base percentages here against right-handed

04:37pitching. And then you take a look at on the opposite side with the Texas Rangers. It is a

04:41good-looking lineup there, but Hunter Brown looks like he's been flawless this season.

04:46Weighted on base percentage, isopower numbers, high K rate, low walk rate, number one on the card

04:51today with a 64 XFIP minus and a 2.65 XFIP number. Astros for me today, baby.

04:59As a slight underdog, our final game of this six-game slate, the rubber match at the ravine.

05:06The Dodgers beat the A's yesterday 9-3. Shohei hit a homer. Max Muncy hit a three-run shot.

05:12Wait, doesn't the other Max Muncy play for the Athletics? We'll ask Tom Benke about that a little

05:17bit later on. More on the early lineup next.

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