'Growing sense from Ukraine they'll to have to rely on themselves sans US, with limited EU support'

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00:00Let's get the analysis. I'm bringing Neil Melvin. Neil is Director of International Security Studies

00:04at the Royal United Services Institute. Neil, thanks for being with us. I'm wondering what

00:08the likes of Churchill and de Gaulle might have made of this one, given

00:12their stances on this particular issue. But a joint nuclear deterrent, what do you make of that?

00:19Well, actually, I mean, I think reflecting on those historical parallels, I mean,

00:22there's always been a very close, certainly in the 20th century, security policy between France

00:27and the UK. And this is really the contemporary form of it, is that there's a growing anxiety about

00:34US commitments to Europe's security. And this extends even to the US extended nuclear deterrence

00:40to Europe. And so there's been a bit of a worry about a possible US pullback and what that would

00:46mean. And so the UK and France coming together to coordinate their nuclear policies is really a

00:51signal to reassure, I think, the two countries, but more widely in Europe, that they're

00:57could be some kind of European response, even in the terrible eventuality that US wants to pull

01:04back. And in terms of that response, and creating that response, of course, there could be,

01:10if I'm reading this correctly, great potential for joint defence development, great potential for

01:15business as well. Well, exactly, because I think, I mean, the agreement itself, and there was a nuclear

01:21component to it, but the actual security and defence dimension was quite a strong commitment by both

01:26countries. We've seen this coordination of their nuclear policies, and a new mechanism. We've also

01:33seen a commitment for new defence industrial cooperation, development of missiles together,

01:38but also setting up headquarters for the coalition of the willing around Ukraine, and a strong

01:45commitment also to NATO. So we shouldn't see this as an alternative to NATO. Both countries are signing up to

01:51strengthen their cooperation in something called the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force, an Anglo-French

01:56mechanism that could bring between 10 and 50,000 troops from both countries together to work

02:01through NATO. And that would be a remarkable achievement if it is done. Is this sounded like a

02:07sort of mini EU-style army development in some way, shape, or form? I know that's quite an explosive

02:13thing to say, but you see what I'm getting at, a sort of greater cooperation. You know, we're sort of in the

02:17post-Brexit era, but here we have the UK and France working together, almost like nothing happened.

02:25Well, I think it is very much a sign of the times, but it's also noticeable that this is happening in a bilateral

02:31context. So I don't think this is a first step to anything like a European army. What it is very clearly is that there's a push all

02:38across Europe to work together more. Countries that are in EU, in NATO, outside the EU, outside NATO, are finding

02:47cooperative mechanisms. And I think this next month, we're going to see an Anglo-German treaty that's also

02:53going to consolidate their relationships. And then we have three core treaties, the Arkham Treaty between

02:58Germany and France, the agreement today between France and the UK building on Lancaster House agreements

03:04in 2010 and the new Anglo-German treaty that really consolidates the three biggest countries in Europe

03:11around defence and security questions. Neil, can you bear with us a second? Because we're going to

03:17turn to another aspect of the story and then get you back in to comment on that. So please, Neil Melvin

03:22there at the Royal United Service Institute, please bear with us. 10 billion euros in investment earmarked for

03:28Ukraine at the special summit in Rome. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni revealing the figures that

03:33represent fresh investment in a new equity fund and public-private partnerships amid uncertainties

03:39over the US commitment to Kyiv's defence. Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the gathering

03:43that investing in Ukraine and especially in its domestic defence industry was in Europe's own security

03:49interest. 15 heads of state and hundreds of business leaders gathered on Thursday for a special

03:58conference on Ukraine hosted by the Italian premier. While Kyiv has seen a recent escalation in Russian

04:05airstrikes, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his wife appealed to their allies for investment to help rebuild but also

04:12defend the country. In June alone, Russia launched more than 330 missiles alongside nearly 80 ballistic ones,

04:21over 5,000 combat drones and 5,000 aerial bombs at Ukrainian cities. The scale of destruction is

04:28difficult to describe. We must stop Russian drones and missiles and this means more air defence supplies

04:37and more investments in intercepted drones, air defence systems and of course missiles.

04:42Zelenskyy thanked those countries and companies that have already invested and called for Russia's frozen

04:49assets and not just the interest to be put towards Ukraine's recovery. The British and French

04:56leaders meanwhile dialled in from London for a coalition of the Willing meeting at the conference

05:01where they discussed new sanctions on Moscow. The German Chancellor called out Slovakia for blocking

05:07more sanctions from the EU. He also said Germany would buy Patriot anti-missile systems for Ukraine

05:13and sent a clear message. I have two messages. The one goes to Moscow and to President Putin. The message

05:21is quite simple. We will not give up. And dear friends, my second message goes to Washington DC

05:31and to President Donald Trump. Stay with us and stay with the Europeans. We are on the same page.

05:40The question of American support, which has wavered under Donald Trump, continues to loom large.

05:46After Washington announced they would halt some weapon shipments to Ukraine,

05:50the U.S. President made a U-turn this week, declaring that he would send more and is considering

05:56imposing sanctions on Russia. Washington and Moscow are nonetheless continuing their dialogue

06:01with the American Secretary of State meeting the Russian Foreign Minister in Malaysia on Thursday.

06:06Let's go back to our guest Neil Melvin of the Royal United Services Institute. He's Director of

06:13International Security Studies. Neil, thanks for bearing with us. 10 billion then announced for

06:18Ukraine. Less than expected, but nonetheless, a good start.

06:22Yeah, I mean, I think it's an important commitment and it comes at a really key moment. But

06:27to be honest, I mean, the challenge that Ukraine is facing is not really recovery, but how to be

06:33rescued at the moment because it's coming under enormous military pressure. We saw last night

06:38nearly 700 Russian drones fired against Ukraine. The Russians are pressing now with tens of thousands

06:44of troops in Donbas and in the North Ukraine. So, I mean, Ukraine is really, I think, between a rock and a

06:50hard place with the lack of supplies coming from the West, but also the Russians ramping up for a

06:56really sort of hard summer campaign against them. It's a bit much then to talk about the fact that

07:02perhaps Ukraine could develop its own defence industry. Obviously, there's been success in

07:06creating drones and that has worked extremely well. But in terms of creating its own place for

07:11manufacturing arms and the hardware that goes with it, that's too ambitious.

07:15Well, I mean, it's already got a very successful defence industry and they've ramped that up. And

07:20that is really why, in many ways, they've been able to stay in the fight as long as they have.

07:25But the difficulty is that Russia is itself ramping up its defence industry. I mean,

07:30I said 700 drones last night. I think Russia is aiming by the autumn to maybe be able to deliver

07:351,000 drones on a regular basis, hitting Ukraine. And that, of course, saps all the air defences that

07:42they have, which are very expensive, and particularly if the United States is not supplying some of the

07:47key weapon systems that Ukraine needs. So this is now a real race to make sure that Ukraine has

07:53what it needs to hold out over the next four to five months.

07:57When we see Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, and Sergio Lavrov, his Russian equivalent, sat face to

08:03face in Malaysia talking about a different way of ending the war, but not elaborating on that.

08:09Do we read anything into that or is that just talk, do you think?

08:13Well, from the Russian side, I think this will be very comforting because they've been playing

08:17all along just for time, because I think President Putin feels that he's in a position now where he

08:22can win this war because of the difficulties on arms supplies that Ukraine is having. But also,

08:28there's a manpower question in Ukraine at the same time as Russia's sort of its defence industry is

08:33peaking. And the United States appears largely disengaged from actually supporting Ukraine.

08:40So these talks, I think, are very dispiriting in Ukraine. You can see that there's a growing sense

08:46from Ukraine they're going to have to rely on themselves without United States and possibly even

08:52with quite limited support from Europe.

08:54Neil, thank you. We need to leave it there. Neil Melvin, the Director of International Security Studies

08:59at the Royal United Services Institute. Thank you so much for joining us here, France 24. Thank you

09:03for your analysis. Greatly appreciated. Thanks again.

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