Putin's warning to West seeks to create 'divide within Ukraine's allies over war' & foment 'discord'

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00:00British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to meet with US President Joe Biden later

00:06this Friday to discuss whether to let Kyiv use long-range missiles against Russia. In

00:12recent weeks, Kyiv has repeatedly urged its key allies to lift the current restriction,

00:17with Moscow now saying that a U-turn on the issue would effectively mean that NATO was

00:21at war with Russia. Shirley Sipon has the full story.

00:28President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could have said the exact same words. The Polish foreign minister

00:33pleaded on Thursday for NATO countries to allow Ukraine to fire missiles they have provided

00:39to Kyiv into Russian territory. What used to be a red line for Ukraine's allies could

00:45soon get a green light.

00:51Rockets that hit civilian targets in Ukraine are being shot by the bombers from the territory

00:55of Russia. These bombers take off from the airports on Russian territory. The victim

01:02of the aggression has the right to protect himself.

01:07For President Vladimir Putin, though, if NATO allows Ukraine to fire missiles that its members

01:13produced into Russia, then NATO countries will be at war with Russia, with everything

01:19that entails. Putin says that in order to use sophisticated Western missiles, Ukraine

01:26will need Western soldiers.

01:30This will mean the direct participation of the NATO countries, the United States and

01:35European countries in the Ukraine war. It significantly changes the very essence, the

01:40very nature of the conflict.

01:43This risk of an escalation has led the U.S. to examine various options, which the UK Prime

01:49Minister has arrived to discuss with President Biden. The most likely one, according to U.S.

01:56and British media, is to maintain the ban on the use of U.S.-produced weapons against

02:02targets in Russia, but to authorize the use of long-range missiles made by its allies,

02:09the UK and France.

02:11Well, for more, we can bring in our correspondent in Ukraine, Francis Farrell. Just how closely

02:17will Ukraine be watching what goes on between Biden and Stama this Friday?

02:21So, it's difficult to underestimate and understate how important this is for Ukrainians, strategically

02:28and symbolically. It's something that the country, the leadership and the people have

02:33been asking for since the very beginning of the full-scale war, to be able to defend itself

02:39and fight back against Russia without one hand tied behind their backs. And now, obviously,

02:44with increased frequency of Russian long-range attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure,

02:52this plea has just gone louder and louder. And now Ukrainians are certainly crossing

02:56their fingers for the ability to fight properly back against Russia, to be finally granted.

03:03Now, on the field, meanwhile, Russia says it's recaptured a portion of territory in

03:07its western Kursk region after, of course, Ukraine launched a lightning incursion over

03:12a month ago. What more can you tell us about that Russian counter-offensive as it currently

03:16stands?

03:17So, facts from the ground that can be verified independently are still few and far between.

03:24We know that Russia claimed to have captured 10 settlements back in Kursk oblast from Ukrainian

03:31control. But Ukraine still hasn't commented. Zelensky has said that they know that the

03:38attack was coming and everything's still going to plan. Overall, according to independent

03:42information that we have, it seems that they have taken some territory back and it has

03:47been carried out by some of Russia's more elite units. But for the moment, it's not

03:52a game-changer in terms of Ukraine's hold on Kursk oblast. We'll have to keep our eye

03:56on it.

03:59Frances Farrell reporting from Donetsk in Ukraine. Thank you very much.

04:03Well, for yet more on this story, we can bring in now Dr Gavin Hall, an expert on NATO. He's

04:10also a teaching fellow in political science and international security at the University

04:14of Strathclyde. Thank you so much for joining us here on Around the World today. Now, Putin

04:19has described letting Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russian territory as a red

04:24line. What exactly should we understand this red line to signify?

04:29Well, good afternoon. First of all, I think it should be clear that there have been various

04:34other red lines that Vladimir Putin has drawn since 2022, which have been breached and crossed

04:42at various points in opportunity with only sort of limited responses. In his framing,

04:49if you like, of this as a red line, it's clear that obviously Putin doesn't want Ukraine

04:54to be able to use particularly the UK French-made Storm Shadow missiles because of their capability

05:00to damage infrastructure within Russia itself. But what he's really trying to do is to effectively

05:08create some sort of divide and dispute within Ukraine's allies over how to proceed in the

05:16war. So there's some form of discord, disunity, which challenges the cohesion that's out there.

05:22It's probably picked on this particular moment and day because we've got the UK-US summit

05:28at the moment. We have a new UK government in place. We know that we're going to be having

05:33a budget upcoming. We're going to be having a strategic defense review. So any little

05:37bit that can potentially influence how these transpire and ultimately potentially lower

05:45funding being made available is something that Putin will see as being advantageous.

05:50In terms of what the potential response to crossing this red line be, probably the most

05:56extreme version would be Russia choosing to arm what it would frame as Western adversaries,

06:03particularly countries like Iran, who are also supplying Hamas, Hezbollah and things,

06:10and have their own sort of agenda there.

06:12So in your opinion, we don't think that Russia is really prepared to declare war on NATO

06:17if this new red line is crossed?

06:21No, because that would be something that would require a response to take place. And that

06:28response ultimately wouldn't be beneficial to Russia or Russia's goals and things. It's

06:34maintained there as a sort of threat. And in a way, it's worked and enables Russia to

06:40reestablish some form of deterrence because it's enabling the United States to say, well,

06:47we're not going to allow our weapons to be used. So sort of trying to manage the level

06:52of the increased level of conflict that's taking place there. So there is some form

06:58of restraint that Russia is able to force the Western allies, particularly the US,

07:03to take, which they may not want to.

07:06Well, picking up on what you just said, British media today is reporting that Joe Biden,

07:11of course, wary of provoking a nuclear or possibly nuclear conflict, is ready to let

07:15Ukraine deploy British and French missiles using US technology, but not US made missiles

07:21themselves. How important is that distinction both for the US and for Moscow?

07:27It's pretty much a technical distinction that allows the US to sort of maintain this image

07:34of hey, we're just providing aid and assistance. We're not actually involved in this conflict.

07:39However, in reality, they obviously they are involved to a certain degree in things.

07:46But more, it enables Russia in a way to try and focus on painting the United Kingdom as being

07:54a prominent supporter of Ukraine, being sort of one of the main bad actors, if you like,

08:01that's helping Ukraine to act. We've seen this morning, six UK diplomats have had their

08:07accreditation removed and are going to be kicked out of Moscow for allegedly engaging in

08:13subversive activity, was the phrase, which is pretty much sort of what happened during the

08:18Cold War. Something would happen, both sides would expel others diplomats. So there are

08:24different ways that Russia can choose to respond and how this can develop, which are well below

08:30the nuclear potential.

08:32Now, it's likely that Starmer and Biden's meeting today in Washington will be their

08:37last meeting before an election, a US election that could seriously upend US policy on Ukraine.

08:43What would be, in your opinion, the biggest impact of a Trump administration on Ukraine's war effort?

08:49Well, that's a pretty sizable question. During Trump's administration, 2016 to 2020,

08:59obviously he made lots of rhetoric and came out with lots of statements. However, what he said

09:04versus what his administration actually did generally didn't align particularly well. Indeed,

09:13he might say, have argued, we're going to lessen defense spending, we're going to lessen our

09:19influence in Europe. But in reality, his administration actually increased. So Trump

09:24is someone who uses rhetoric to enhance negotiating positions rather than necessarily

09:29being what exactly he'll do. I'm afraid that's all we have time for. But Dr Gavin Hall,

09:35expert on NATO and teaching fellow in political science and international security

09:39at the University of Strathclyde. Thank you. Thank you.

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