'Role of opposition inside Russia marginalised entirely', mobilising as 'underground' movement

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00:00 We can bring in Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, professor of Russian politics and director of King's

00:06 Russia Institute at King's College London.

00:09 Good evening.

00:10 Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24.

00:13 First question, how will this vote, these results influence Moscow's actions in Ukraine

00:19 for the months to come?

00:22 I think the, we shouldn't call it elections, more of an affirmation in power, didn't really

00:28 change the situation and it's going to be used as a signal to the domestic and foreign

00:34 audiences but the Kremlin stance on Russia's war will continue and that is sort of a resolute

00:40 commitment to trying to achieve whatever goals that it can achieve there.

00:47 We've had statements, pretty harsh statements coming out from Western capitals including

00:51 London and here in Paris we had the French foreign ministry who said the conditions for

00:55 free election were not met in Russia.

00:58 We've had Western leaders who've tried to paint Vladimir Putin as isolated on the world

01:02 stage yet today we've had words of congratulations coming from Beijing and just a short while

01:07 ago India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi putting out a statement congratulating Vladimir Putin.

01:12 Is he really isolated on the world stage like the West wants us to believe?

01:18 The Kremlin's strategy has been to juxtapose the West to the global South and to pinpoint

01:25 Russia and the Kremlin itself and the Russian leadership as the leader of the anti-imperialist

01:31 or anti-colonial movement to say, playing on the historical wounds and traumas in the

01:38 global South.

01:40 So that has been the strategy and it seems to be working in terms of building these big

01:45 geopolitical alliances pitted against each other.

01:50 So I think that's what we're seeing when we see Modi and Xi Jinping supporting and affirming

01:56 the results of these elections.

01:58 And is that also why we see the Russian economy doing as well as it's done in the face of

02:03 Western sanctions?

02:04 I believe growth came in at 3.6 percent last year.

02:08 Joe Biden said the ruble would turn to rubble.

02:11 That hasn't happened.

02:12 Is it because we're having, we see Russia being propped up by New Delhi and Beijing?

02:18 Absolutely, absolutely.

02:20 A lot of trade exchanges have been reoriented towards China specifically and India and the

02:27 Russian car markets are dominated by Chinese cars these days.

02:32 And India is buying a lot of Russian oil.

02:35 And so globalization in terms of all the trade linkages that connect countries, but in this

02:43 case the West only raising sanctions and many other big economies Russia relies on are not

02:52 participating in sanctions and are propping up the Russian economy.

02:57 Absolutely, that has been the big way out for a Russian economy to sustain and to keep

03:01 imports in and specific exports out.

03:05 I mentioned the statement from the French foreign ministry earlier.

03:09 We do have the French president Emmanuel Macron, who seemed to have changed his views on Russia

03:17 and its actions in Ukraine two years ago.

03:20 Emmanuel Macron was of the thinking that Vladimir Putin could not be embarrassed on the world

03:26 stage and he had to be given something.

03:27 That obviously, that rhetoric seems to have changed over the past two years.

03:33 Has Emmanuel Macron taken it to a certain level that you cannot go back to a regular

03:38 normal relationship with Russia once whatever happens, whatever Ukraine wants to see happen

03:46 on its territory actually happens?

03:49 I think for the Western countries now it's clear that Putin is not someone who they can

03:55 speak to constructively.

03:58 And that commitment and that understanding has been there over the past two years.

04:03 But indeed, we see quite a shift in terms of the narratives that come from Emmanuel

04:09 Macron.

04:10 And now we are yet to see whether these words are going to be supported by actions.

04:16 That's where the real meaning of the words will come.

04:20 But indeed, we have seen a big change in discourse.

04:24 And we obviously see the outcome of this election.

04:29 We know what happened last month to Alexei Navalny.

04:33 He was killed while in prison.

04:35 Where does all of this leave Russia's opposition?

04:38 Because it seems like it's Vladimir Putin right now for the next six years.

04:43 We don't know who's being groomed to be next in line, if you will.

04:50 But where is Russia's opposition, considering that whatever little opposition there is in

04:54 the country has very little teeth?

04:57 Most opposition is outside the country by now, and the repressive context of the Russian

05:03 political system has grown enormously over the past years.

05:08 And unfortunately, we're expecting the terror and repressions to increase further, and for

05:14 any other independent activist actions to be rooted out.

05:19 So unfortunately, the role of opposition is marginalized inside the country entirely.

05:24 And we can only see some underground actions.

05:29 Outside the opposition can organize, can try to influence Western governments, can try

05:34 to maintain certain links to activists inside Russia and support them the way they can,

05:40 and can do some things to maintain linkages, collaboration, a sense of belonging among

05:48 the Russian opposition that is outside the country, and among many Russians who flee

05:53 from war outside the country.

05:55 And the opposition event noon against Putin was one of such events that was aiming at

06:03 bringing people out to show that they're not alone.

06:06 So it wasn't about voting as much as about maintaining the linkages and maintaining a

06:12 sense that, you know, that Russians who are against Putin are not alone and that there

06:17 are big majorities.

06:18 So big lines that we saw on Sundays indicate precisely that and were signaling event for

06:26 people who find themselves outside and as isolated.

06:28 Gulnaz, we're going to have to leave it there.

06:30 Thank you very much for joining us on the program.

06:32 That was Gulnaz Ashrafutdinova.

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