'This is not Moscow's first rodeo in Kyiv: Ukraine will have no security unless Moscow is defeated'

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00:00 More on this story, I'm joined by Melinda Herring, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's

00:04 Eurasia Center. Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.

00:08 You know, for the last two years, the US has been the largest provider of military aid to Kyiv,

00:13 but there's now a reluctance on the part of Republicans in the US Congress to continue

00:19 funding that war effort. So from your standpoint, can Ukraine win this war without the financial

00:25 help of the US? Hi, Monty. It's going to be very tough. So Senator Schumer just got back from Kyiv

00:32 and he said that Zelensky's message there was very plain. If you give us the assistance,

00:37 we can win. Without it, it's going to be very, very hard. And this is a pivotal year. We know

00:43 that the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition and that the European Union and the Ukraine

00:49 supporters in Europe can't turn, they can't bridge that gap quickly enough. So all eyes are on

00:54 Speaker Mike Johnson, the leader of the House of Representatives, who's refusing to bring this

00:59 bill to the floor, even though 74% of Americans want support for Ukraine to continue. Well,

01:06 of course, there's a presidential election happening in November in the US. So what would

01:10 it mean for the war effort if Donald Trump is elected to a second term? You know, by all accounts,

01:16 he's responsible for pressuring Republicans to block the current funding for Ukraine.

01:21 That's right, Monty. So there's two schools of thought on this. There's

01:24 one that I would describe as out of touch with reality, but I will give them airing of their

01:29 views. So Donald Trump in his first administration was tough on Russia. He authorized javelins when

01:35 Obama wouldn't. He kept sanctions in Crimea in place. So he did do some good things. In my view,

01:40 that's because of strong bureaucrats who kept that pressure in place. But I think it's very,

01:46 very dire for Ukraine if Trump is elected. He's already threatened. He doesn't like NATO. He has

01:53 threatened to not use the Article 5 provisions, not to back up our European allies. So he does

02:00 that a few more times, and no one's going to take the United States very seriously with the

02:04 commitments that we've made. So for Ukraine, I expect him to zero out assistance if he were to

02:10 become president. And I don't even think he has to pull us out of NATO. I think he could just

02:14 threaten Article 5. He could say, "I'm not going to back up Europe if it's attacked." And that

02:22 would be enough to really show that NATO's a paper tiger. Well, so with the future of the

02:27 U.S. help now unclear, how confident are you that European allies could step in and fill the void?

02:33 So European allies are stepping in and filling the void. The problem is that they're not doing

02:38 it quickly enough. So the EU promised a million shells by the spring, but they've only delivered

02:43 330,000, and North Korea has delivered a million to Moscow. So they're making another pledge. But

02:50 the problem is you can't just flip a switch. It takes a long time to put these systems into place.

02:56 So really, it's imperative that the House of Representatives pass this assistance to Congress.

03:01 And even though it doesn't look so good, a majority of Americans support this aid to Ukraine. And

03:08 there's a way to force the Speaker to bring the bill. There's a bunch of sort of arcane legislative

03:13 ways to do this. So it's not game over. I talked to a bunch of insiders today. They say that there's

03:19 a 60% chance that this bill will pass in the next two months. Before I let you go, I just want to

03:24 ask you, I know it's hard to predict these things, but how much longer do you think this war will

03:28 last? And is there pressure for Kiev to seek some kind of territorial settlement with Russia to end

03:35 the war? Monty, I don't see an end in sight. So this is not Moscow's first rodeo in Kiev.

03:42 This war is, we're commemorating the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

03:46 But Russia went into Ukraine in 2014 and illegally annexed Crimea. Moscow doesn't show any desire

03:52 whatsoever to negotiate. And after all of the war crimes we've seen, Ukraine can't do it either.

03:58 They will have no security unless Moscow is defeated. Okay, we'll have to leave it there.

04:02 Melinda Herring, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

04:06 Thanks so much for joining us here on France 24. Thank you.

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