As US shift on Ukraine defence 'sharpens divisions within EU', will there be harmonisation on F-16s?

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00:00Well, let's bring in Samuel Romani, friend of the programme, Associate Fellow of Royal

00:04United Services Institute at Roche in London. Samuel, great to talk to you this evening.

00:09Let's just begin on where you think things stand tonight. I mean, should we should we take as read

00:14that we think that the US and Joe Biden has effectively signed off on this given these

00:19quotes, AFP, also a number of US sources saying that they have sources close to Biden saying he

00:25said, yes, it's the green light. Yeah, I think we should definitely be taking this seriously as a

00:31green light for the Ukrainians to use out of camps in Russian territory. Of course, it will be at the

00:37discretion of American policymakers and the Ukrainian counterparts to coordinate exactly on

00:41which targets should be focused on and which targets are most appropriate. But it's almost

00:46certain that they're going to be used against the Bastogne base in Kursk, which is important for

00:50carrying tank systems and make 29 jets and also against North Korean forces in their training

00:56camps there and potentially to a range of about 17 airfields further afield in that neighbourhood.

01:02I don't know if you're getting different information or other information to me,

01:05but just looking at the situation and speaking to a number of people familiar with other journalist

01:11colleagues in the US saying that the sources are quoting that this is not a carte blanche

01:16acceptance to say you have the green light across Russia. This is more about you have

01:20permission to strike long range around north of the Kursk region to where you were referring to,

01:26to those high profile, perhaps more highly defended sites. Exactly. Yeah, I think that

01:31every strike is probably going to be coordinated on a case by case basis. So the Ukrainians are

01:35not going to launch, let's say a strike that it's completely different direction than the

01:39Americans have ever thought about. And I think that, yes, the strikes will initially be concentrated

01:43on Kursk and also on reaching behind the lines in Kharkiv because the Russians are still trying

01:48to make an assault on Kubyansk. They lost large numbers of troops doing that last week.

01:52The Ukrainians have used Himars quite effectively on the cross-border side of Kharkiv and in

01:57Belgorod. So now they can combine Himars and Atakams. So my suspicion is that it would be

02:02those two areas, the area around Kharkiv and Belgorod around it, as well as Kursk being the

02:08two main areas where the Ukrainians will strike. We know that just a few days ago we had this

02:15fireside chat between Joe Biden and the President-elect Donald Trump and they spoke for a

02:21couple of hours. Very hard to know what they spoke about, but would you be surprised if this wasn't

02:26brought up in that meeting? Well, I think it probably would be brought up at that meeting

02:31and it'd be interesting to see exactly what Trump's reaction to it would be. There's early

02:35rumblings for the Trump camp that the Trump administration would consider overturning

02:40this green light in order to facilitate peaceful negotiations with Moscow. But of course,

02:45if Russia does not play ball in the negotiations, there's also rumblings from the Trump camp that

02:49the Ukrainians could be armed to the teeth. So far, what we're seeing in Russia is that this

02:54is a major escalation against them. They're framing it even conspiratorially as Biden trying

02:59to sabotage the incoming Trump administration or to provoke a war that would prevent Trump from

03:04being elected as president. So there's lots of hysteria and panic and escalatory rhetoric in

03:08Russia and the Trump administration may well decide to reverse this green light if he feels

03:12like it would streamline negotiations. I've seen different readings, Samuel, about the calibration

03:19from the Biden administration in doing this. One, well, if you listen to Donald Trump Jr,

03:23that he's effectively encouraging a further escalation towards a more significant conflict.

03:30But then if you read between the lines of a number of Western analysts saying that actually this

03:34could be seen as a gift to Donald Trump and you kind of touched upon it a second ago,

03:37the idea that you're putting into play a situation where it can be reversed,

03:42where Donald Trump has something else to negotiate with.

03:46Yeah, I think it's definitely something that could be offered. And it's pretty interesting

03:50to see that the Russians are using the Ukrainian occupation of Kursk as some kind of a sticking

03:56point for the negotiations to begin. But when you look at some Russian telegram channels,

04:00including figures like Oleg Saryov and some others, they're not in a huge rush to actually

04:04liberate Kursk. They're pretty happy keeping some Ukrainians in Kursk to justify why they're

04:08not talking and then continue to make gains in Donetsk and maybe push for gains in Zaporizhia

04:13or Kursk. So the Russians are kind of using this Ukrainian presence in Kursk as a reason

04:18why they don't want to have talks. And the Trump administration would have this other card to also

04:22play to kind of, well, will force all the talks. So maybe there'll be compromises on both sides

04:28that could make the situation easier. Do you think, Donald, do you think that Joe Biden

04:33will officially announce this or will they leave it suitably vague? Where do you think

04:36this is going in terms of a confirmation or not? Well, I don't think that there'll be much in the

04:42way of a grand official announcement about this, because number one, the Ukrainians always want

04:45to keep some degree of absec and some degree of unpredictability about their next moves.

04:51Ukrainians have weaponised unpredictability quite effectively, from whether it be the striking of

04:55the Black Sea fleet out of the blue without big announcements, whether it be the surprise

05:01counteroffensive in Kharkiv in 2022 or a drone attack on Moscow that scared a lot of people over

05:06the Kremlin or the Kursk offensive. Ukraine has always liked to keep the enemy guessing,

05:11and I think that they'll continue to do that and the Americans will play along.

05:14But the big question is, obviously, does this lead to concrete reciprocal announcements

05:19from France on the scalps and from Britain on storm shadows? Le Figaro was kind of suggesting

05:25that that was a done deal, but now they've walked that back. So I think there's some more work to

05:28be done on the French and the British sides. Yeah, it is very interesting, isn't it, whether or not

05:32there is a coordination now to work out how they and if they announce this at all and what the

05:37French and the British do. On the issue of European countries, whenever there's a significant moment

05:42like this, we see a geopolitical ripple effect. We see unity put to the test in Europe, within the EU

05:48and some of the disruptors, shall we say, Hungary and Slovakia, making clear their displeasure

05:54tonight. Absolutely. I mean, the statement from Robert Fico was very, very telling that he sees

06:00this as some kind of an escalation. I'm sure that this will be the exact view that's coming through

06:05from Hungary, who cheered on the prospect of negotiations with Russia and Trump's election.

06:11So obviously, this is going to sharpen divisions within the EU even more. And the final thing is,

06:16what does this mean for other weapons systems aside from long range missiles? Because now

06:21the Ukrainians have some F-16s which they can use inside Russian territory and some

06:25which they're prohibited from using. Will there be a harmonisation of policy as well

06:29on the F-16 jets before Biden leaves office? Samuel, great to talk to you. Samuel Romani,

06:34Associate Fellow at RUSI in London. Thank you very much.

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