Russia threatens the entire EU, bloc's chief tells AFP

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00:00Well, we're going to get a bit more analysis now with political analyst Christine Brezina,

00:04who joins me live from Washington.

00:05Christine, thanks for taking the time to speak to us.

00:08Let's just get back now to that highly anticipated call that did not secure the breakthrough

00:13ceasefire that Ukraine originally agreed to last week.

00:16It did get that scaled back commitment to halting attacks on energy infrastructure from

00:21Russia for 30 days.

00:23Ukraine saying that basically means Russia's rejecting the ceasefire.

00:26What are your thoughts on that?

00:29Russia gave the U.S. the minimal step forward that the U.S. was looking for.

00:34But it's a far cry from the full 30-day ceasefire that President Trump had wanted.

00:40Russia goes back to this energy particular issue because, on the one hand, this has been

00:44already discussed for months.

00:46There has been from even the French side a proposal to have this partial ceasefire on

00:51energy infrastructure for a long time now.

00:54And also, this kind of ceasefire helps Russia the most because Russia does not like the

00:58fact that Ukrainians strike Russian energy infrastructure.

01:02And so this is the one piece that helps Russia the most and is frankly the piece that Ukraine

01:07needs least because the winter is ending and energy infrastructure, while important, is

01:13less important the warmer it gets.

01:16Ukrainians would like there to be a stop of air offensives.

01:19They would like missiles to stop falling and drones for stop coming in and destroying houses

01:24and infrastructure overnight.

01:26This will probably continue because Russia is not putting such a pause on air strikes

01:32anywhere in the near future.

01:35Even if this energy piece works, if both sides agree, then there's a discussion about the

01:40Black Sea.

01:41If the Black Sea might work, if you get a ceasefire there, then there's a discussion

01:45about what's next.

01:47So that does not look like in the next few months we are going to have what Ukraine needs.

01:51And if Trump talks about the need to stop the dying and stop the fighting, where that

01:56seems an incredibly far off cope and not anything Russia is willing to do in the short

02:01term.

02:02Indeed.

02:03And even during the call, Vladimir Putin said a comprehensive deal would be contingent on

02:07the West halting all military aid, all intelligence to Ukraine.

02:11Again, that's a massive sticking point for Ukraine.

02:13I mean, given that that seems to be an impasse, what happens next?

02:19Is there a very small piece forward and are there other incentives or disincentives in

02:25some ways sticks against Russia to try to do the right thing?

02:30Exactly the question that you brought up, the question of Western assistance to Ukraine

02:35is going to be a non-starter, not only with the United States, which has now resumed the

02:41intelligence sharing, but also with Europeans.

02:44Because as we have these conversations between Moscow and Washington, there also are efforts

02:49on the European side to prepare what will come next for European support for Ukraine,

02:55militarily, financially, and even in the question of peacekeepers.

02:58So Europeans are not saying, okay, there's a ceasefire, we're just going to step back

03:03and let Ukraine be Ukraine.

03:05There is an ongoing effort to secure Ukrainian peace in order to secure European peace in

03:11order to eventually bring Ukraine more into Europe.

03:15And I think it's highly unlikely that anything that Moscow arranges with Washington is going

03:21to affect this notion that Ukraine is far more European now than it ever has been before

03:27in terms of institutions and connections.

03:30No, that's certainly true.

03:31Volodymyr Zelensky, though, saying he is going to speak to Donald Trump today, this Wednesday.

03:36What do you think he is hoping to get out of that talk this time, particularly after

03:40that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office a few weeks ago?

03:45Well, certainly there should be gratitude, which I know is very difficult, but I think

03:50that the Trump administration will expect, and the Ukrainians would be very wise to thank

03:55the United States for the U.S.'s efforts to come up with a good agreement for Ukraine.

04:03But after that, and after the niceties, I think it's going to be very important for

04:06the Ukrainians to understand what else was in that conversation between Moscow and Washington.

04:11What are the feelings from the Moscow side, and where might there be traction on issues

04:18that are not yet fully ready to be announced?

04:20I think this really is a nitty-gritty meeting, which are necessary, and I think it's very

04:25heartening that the Trump administration, that Trump himself, is willing to talk to

04:29Zelensky right now.

04:31There have been so many fears about an ending of relations between the two leaders.

04:37And instead, it's good that we could have a productive step forward, and hopefully some

04:42of those clarifying points will help Ukraine understand what they need to do as well in

04:47order to get to peace.

04:48And in order to get those clarifying points, it seems like the U.S. has to have leverage

04:53on Russia in some way.

04:55What exactly kind of leverage are we talking about?

04:57I mean, is this only about sanctions?

04:58Is that how Donald Trump can put pressure on Putin?

05:03Sanctions, of course, matter.

05:05But it's also a question about what is the large role that Russia wants in the world,

05:10and how does it get back to that, if that really is a priority?

05:14If we look at the White House readout from the call yesterday, there's a lot of attention

05:19on the Middle East.

05:20This in many ways feels unusual.

05:22This was a call and a conversation about Ukraine.

05:26But for Russia, probably not only.

05:28For Russia, the incentives that there could be to, again, be a well-respected international

05:33player seem to matter.

05:36And so the leverage is both on sanctions, on spikes, but also on the right package for

05:42what Russia will get if it gives up in Ukraine.

05:46What is its role on the international stage?

05:49And that, I think, is an area where there is a lot of conversation between the United

05:53States and Russia, and the Middle East comes up here because Russia likes being a major

05:59player in big world conflicts.

06:01And because Russia lost its foothold in Syria recently, it feels an acute gap in terms of

06:07its global footprint in the Middle East.

06:10This is something, much like Ukraine, that Russia would like to attain.

06:14And so what is the big picture for Russia moving forward?

06:17This is an important point.

06:19But I am very concerned that in those conversations and future conversations between Washington

06:24and Moscow, that Russia does not get rewarded for its bad behavior, that it does not get

06:29rewarded for starting this war, for killing the insane number of Ukrainians that they

06:37have.

06:38And instead, that Russia understands that this kind of effort has been a failure and

06:43and instead goes back to trying to simply make money in order to gain and attain greater

06:49global influence.

06:50That, of course, is a very tall order and not one that Moscow is inclined to agree with.

06:56All right.

06:57It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.

06:58Thank you so much for your input, Christine.

07:00Christine Breslin is speaking to me from Washington, D.C.

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