Ukraine a 'punch bag': Despite Western military support, 'Russia can always retaliate multifold'

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00:00Russia's lawmakers have now approved a nearly 30% increase in defense spending,

00:05reinforcing the country's military budget amidst the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

00:09The Kremlin plans to allocate a record $134 billion to national defense,

00:14more than 6% of Russia's GDP in a surge in military expenditure not seen since the Soviet era.

00:20Despite this, officials stress the budget social projects while downplaying the military outlays.

00:27The decision now awaits final approval from the upper house of the Duma

00:31before Vladimir Putin signs it officially into law.

00:36On all of these latest developments regarding the missile, Russia's defense spending,

00:41we are joined now by Dr. Alexander Titov from the University of Belfast,

00:46where he is a lecturer in modern European history.

00:49Thank you so much for joining us, Professor.

00:51These different claims of the missiles being used,

00:55we heard there from our correspondent, Emmanuel Shaz, about why it could have different

01:01implications, whether it was intercontinental or whether it was medium range.

01:05At this critical juncture in the war, why does it matter?

01:10Well, I don't think it matters, and I think we know what it is.

01:13And Americans knew, Russians taught Americans in advance about what they're going to use,

01:18because there is still some safety mechanism in terms of early warning.

01:23So allegedly, they told them half an hour before the actual launch.

01:27And the type of the missile launch, it's a new, not yet deployed missile, a medium range missile,

01:35which can carry both nuclear or conventional warheads.

01:40It's been fight, obviously, with conventional warheads.

01:44Why it's important is because this is the kind of clear, intentional escalation,

01:52but symbolic escalation from Russia in response to previous escalation by the United States

01:59and Britain, possibly France as well, by removing their veto on using their own

02:10supplied missiles against Russia's internationally recognized territory,

02:14which has never been done before.

02:15So we are on an escalationary path in the dying days of the Biden administration.

02:22Now, the Russians themselves say that they alerted the United States ahead of firing this missile.

02:32What do we understand from that in terms of the communication between the two big powers?

02:36Because if the United States has been warned,

02:40it means obviously there is some kind of dialogue taking place.

02:43Well, you know, with the, under the terms of the START treaty, which has been suspended,

02:51but the parties still adhere to some of its principles.

02:56And it's just a matter of basic nuclear safety.

02:59If there is a potential strike, Russia, United States are obliged to inform the other party

03:08of potential strike that is not aimed against it.

03:11So it's just a precautionary measure that the other party doesn't see it as a preemptive

03:20nuclear launch.

03:21So they're just following the bare minimum of what they still have in agreement in terms of

03:26use of nuclear capable missiles, which have, this missile in particular has a wider range

03:35than previously used ones, which is around 5,000 kilometres range,

03:43which would not be enough to reach the United States,

03:45but would be enough to reach the whole of Western Europe.

03:47It would be enough to reach another NATO country in the United Kingdom

03:51with those storm shadow missiles.

03:53Vladimir Putin, then in his statement, we heard him warn NATO countries who are giving

04:00Ukraine missiles to strike into Russia, that they would now be effectively Russian targets.

04:09Is this something that we should take on face value or is this just empty rhetoric?

04:14Well, it's up to you how you want to decide.

04:16If you want to take a risk and say it's empty rhetoric and just continue to escalate

04:24against Russia, that's the call of Macron,

04:29Stammer or Biden.

04:31You might take it that it's maybe not worth risking further escalation with Russia,

04:36which obviously has a very large nuclear arsenal and is,

04:44keep saying that it would use it if pushed against the wall.

04:51So it's a matter of not me or anyone else saying yes or no.

04:56It's just a matter of taking your own calculation risk and see whether it's worth it or not.

05:02And Biden, who is living in less than two months,

05:06obviously doesn't think that it's something he should be worried about.

05:10Is this a scorched earth policy from the US president, in your opinion?

05:15Well, I mean, I don't think there is a scorched earth policy, but certainly he is

05:22in the dying weeks of his presidency, allowing to go to cross the lines,

05:28which he was previously unwilling to cross, particularly with missile strikes.

05:33Also, landmines being sent to Ukraine from the United States,

05:36which were previously not being supplied,

05:39rushing through as much military aid to Ukraine as possible.

05:43So basically, it's not going to change anything on the ground so much,

05:48but it is kind of creating this high point of tension between the West and Russia,

05:54with Ukraine really being the punchback in all this.

05:59Because whatever Americans or British or French send to Ukraine against Russia,

06:04Russia can always, as this missile strike shows,

06:08can always retaliate multi-fold against Ukraine.

06:12And Ukraine will be suffering in any escalation more than anybody else.

06:18Ukraine very much caught in the middle there.

06:20Dr Alexander Titov, thank you so much for your insights on the latest missile strike in Dnipro.

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