'Putin is clearly not interested in stopping the war on any terms other than Ukraine's capitulation'

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00:00Though the Kremlin has yet again to officially respond to that Washington-led 30-day ceasefire

00:05proposal, Vladimir Putin's top foreign policy aide said Thursday that that deal, at least

00:09as it stands, would simply give Ukrainian troops a break.

00:13Those comments then suggesting that optimism from the White House about Russia agreeing

00:17to that proposal could perhaps be premature.

00:21For more, we're going to speak now to Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy

00:25Initiative.

00:26Peter, thank you very much for joining us today.

00:28So I want to start by asking you, you know, for a war that's been going on for three years

00:33already, a 30-day ceasefire doesn't really seem like it's particularly significant.

00:38So with such a short timeline, what purpose would this serve, even if both sides do agree

00:43to it?

00:44Well, I think the one side is very interested in the ceasefire, apart from the warring parties

00:51and the idea that, you know, civilians must stop to suffer in this war.

00:58If the Trump administration, the Trump administration is hurrying to be able to claim that it was

01:05able to achieve a certain peace in Ukraine within the 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency.

01:10So the haste sort of dictates the schedule.

01:15Both sides are wary that the other side will take greater advantage of the ceasefire.

01:21Russians are claiming Ukraine will be able to build its air defenses and entrench in

01:29the current front lines.

01:31Ukraine believes that Russia may take greater advantage of it.

01:34The jury is still out on that.

01:36But one thing is clear, Vladimir Putin does believe that he has the upper hand in this.

01:43He's got the upper hand in the Kursk region, and that is the one bargaining sort of chip

01:47that Ukraine wanted to have going into these negotiations.

01:51And if Russia is able to kick the Ukrainians out of its territory, it will have a stronger

01:57hand.

01:58So this is where we're at.

01:59And once again, you know, coming back to the idea that Russians, sorry, Americans and Ukrainians

02:06have proposed to Russia this 30-day deal, ceasefire, Vladimir Putin has to walk a very

02:12tight sort of rope.

02:16It cannot appear to be a warmongering party, while at the same time, Vladimir Putin clearly

02:22is not interested in stopping the war on any terms other than Ukraine's complete capitulation.

02:29So do you think it's realistic, then, that Washington, you know, and given that Donald

02:34Trump is in the White House, that there would be any consequences for Russia if it were

02:39to refuse to accept this 30-day proposal, or if it were to continue the war even after

02:43a potential 30-day ceasefire?

02:46I believe Donald Trump would be hard-pressed not to.

02:49Once again, Donald Trump has been saying very many things, and many of them very friendly,

02:54suspiciously friendly to Vladimir Putin, and is starting, I suspect, to coerce him politically.

03:00We saw the front page of the New York Post, the normally very Trump-friendly outlet owned

03:05by Rupert Murdoch, where it had to remind Donald Trump it's not Zelensky who is the

03:11dictator, but Vladimir Putin who is the real dictator.

03:14So we've seen this sort of tendency.

03:17Donald Trump will be hard-pressed not to put his money where his mouth is and hurt Russia,

03:24levy additional sanctions to Russia, because don't forget, that was his initial campaign

03:29promise, you know.

03:30So that's where we are.

03:32You mentioned very briefly earlier about, you know, Russia thinking that time is on

03:36its side.

03:37I want to ask you about the Ukrainian perspective of things.

03:41Of course, this war has been going on for three years.

03:44Is there a generalized sense of war fatigue?

03:47Do you think that there's a population of Ukrainians that are ready for the war to end,

03:51no matter the conditions?

03:54I wouldn't say no matter the conditions.

03:56We're still talking about a significant majority of Ukrainians, not the same as before, obviously,

04:01but way over 50 percent that do not, would not accept capitulation of Ukraine.

04:07But yes, having said that, Ukrainians are fatigued.

04:10Don't forget, every day we are facing shellings by Russians.

04:15We've lived through hundreds, if not thousands, of air raid sirens since the start of this

04:20war.

04:21It's simply inhuman, what Ukrainians have gone through.

04:24And yes, they want to see an end to this war, but once again, not at the expense of

04:31its very existence.

04:33Among Russia's demands, Peter, have been Ukraine never joining NATO alongside an agreement

04:39that no foreign troops ever be present on Ukrainian territory.

04:42But the rhetoric that we have heard from both the EU and NATO leaders in recent days suggests

04:47that they still expect both of these things to be possible.

04:50I mean, they talk about these things happening once a ceasefire deal is reached.

04:55Russia's been clear that that's not acceptable in its view.

04:58So do you think that Europeans will or should compromise on either of those points?

05:04I think Europeans will do eventually what Washington decides.

05:11I'm afraid we still, it's still premature to talk about, you know, Europe finally having

05:17woken up, not just to the reality of Russia's threat, but what it will take to credibly

05:23meet this threat and to provide Ukraine with ironclad security guarantees.

05:29It's just not there militarily.

05:31Its military-industrial complex, unfortunately, is not there.

05:35What Europe can and should do is actually finally decide the fate of the $300 billion

05:42of Russian sovereign wealth fund that's been frozen largely in European banks.

05:48That is something that probably the White House would welcome.

05:52That money should start working now to help Ukraine defend itself and eventually to help

05:57Ukraine rebuild itself.

06:01The big debate about how to approach Vladimir Putin is whether or not he responds to more

06:06forceful action or more kind of diplomatic compromise, given what you just said about,

06:10you know, Europeans should be using this money to continue the war on the battlefield.

06:14I mean, which of these approaches to Vladimir Putin do you think is likely to work best,

06:19given where things stand now?

06:21Yeah, it's been said that Vladimir Putin understands the language of force.

06:25But once again, whatever language he's heard, I mean, it's been a language of force.

06:28You can say that it's not been forceful enough.

06:31The Biden administration had that formula of not letting Ukraine lose, but at the same

06:37time not letting Russia lose too badly either.

06:41Be it as it may, Vladimir Putin has staked his whole existence, his biological existence,

06:47his life as a politician, the fate of Russia, to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

06:53Unfortunately, there's just no, you know, sort of magic wand that you can use to think

06:58of a solution or a decision.

07:01You have to continue supporting Ukraine.

07:03Ukraine has to continue to resist simply because it's not just the outcome of the war in Ukraine

07:11and the fate of Ukraine.

07:12It's the fate of the entire world and the precedent that a failure of the free world

07:18to defend Ukraine will set for the rest of the world.

07:23As a final question for you, Peter, do you think that there's anything that Western powers

07:29could have done differently over the past couple of decades that could have made the

07:33war that we see playing out now less likely?

07:36You know, I will just take you back to 2008 and the Bucharest summit where both Georgia

07:45and Ukraine were promised in kind of vague, nebulous terms, eventual membership in NATO.

07:50And the architect of that was Angela Merkel.

07:53And so that membership was dangled over Ukraine.

07:56It was never really a possibility in the near future.

08:00And at the same time, it really poked the Russian bear in the ribs.

08:04It teased the Russian bear.

08:06So Ukraine was left in this very unenviable, the worst situation possible, where it was

08:11promised this membership, Russia was irritated and angry, and at the same time, it was made

08:17clear that it's not going to happen in the next generation or two.

08:21So this is where we are, very short-sighted policy of the Western leaders who underestimated

08:27how belligerent, militaristic, revanchist Russia would be within a very short period

08:32of time.

08:33Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, thank you so much for coming on

08:38the show today.

08:39That's unfortunately all we have time for.

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