'Coalition of the willing': Macron announces new Ukraine 'coalition' summit in Paris

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00:00Well, for more on this, we can speak to Dr. Gavin Hall. He's an expert on NATO and a teaching

00:04fellow in political science and international security at the University of Strathclyde.

00:08He joined us from Glasgow. Hello to you, Dr. Hall. Another coalition of the willing, what

00:13have the willing managed to will into concrete support that the Ukraine can use now?

00:19Well, good afternoon. In terms of concrete support, the answer is somewhat depressingly

00:26very little. What they have had to been able to will into action, though, is really lots

00:33of words and indications of where potential support might come in the future. And I think

00:40this is partly because of efforts to try and shore up what they actually want to be able

00:47to do in the future and how to sort of mitigate the challenges of the United States being

00:53potentially less involved in the future. But they're trying to do it in a way that

00:58doesn't give Russia and President Putin any form of sort of ammunition or leeway or ability

01:05to be able to put pressure on the cohesion of the European bloc, because it seems very

01:13much that what Russia is really trying to do by its actions really is to sort of try

01:19and draw out preemptive concessions ahead of any ceasefire negotiations or peace deals

01:26or anything else like this. So it seems very much right. Here's statements. We broadly

01:32support Ukraine and we're looking to try and help you out. But exactly how that's going

01:38to work, we can't really say at the moment because we don't want to jump the gun effectively

01:44and like preemptive potential decisions down the line.

01:48Yeah, Russia listing those preconditions, as you mentioned, but the United States also

01:52putting Ukraine in a position where it's requiring all these other compromises or sacrifices

01:59from Kiev or not demanding the same thing from Moscow. And at the same time, some people

02:05in Europe feeling like they're being frozen out.

02:08Yeah, certainly. And that was one of the big things that came out of the President's macro

02:14statement earlier, where he said very clear in reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty and the

02:20right of Ukraine to be able to defend itself and how whatever discussions were going on

02:26between the United States and Russia at the moment, they weren't peace negotiations. They're

02:31not. And they're just a conversation between two countries because Ukraine is not involved

02:37within those discussions. And any form of peace deal or negotiation must involve Ukraine.

02:44That seems to be very clearly a pretty much a Europe-wide position, but one that's specifically

02:50being led by France and the United Kingdom.

02:54And just coming off the wires within the past half hour from the Ukrainian foreign ministry,

03:00who said that Kiev was ready to sign the minerals deal with the United States at the last meeting

03:04in Jeddah, but that the U.S. team had then requested further consultations in Washington.

03:11Does this feel like that there's sort of a runabout in a way?

03:16Yes, if you like. It's really sort of what's actually going to be beneficial and who's

03:23going to benefit. And you've got the president, President Trump, who's likes to make great

03:31play about his I'm the great dealmaker. Is this an effort to say, well, we want to make

03:37sure we're getting the best deal? Maybe we weren't. Maybe we now want to revisit this.

03:43Who knows exactly what's going through Donald Trump's mind, but whether Ukraine was actually

03:49going to sign it, they've certainly indicated after the fractious meeting in the White House

03:55between Zelensky and Trump, they were prepared to sign the deal. So why it wasn't signed,

04:02we'll find out over the course of the coming days.

04:05And Donald Trump pushing this so far so quickly, he had said he'd end this war on day one of being

04:12in the White House. Then in the first 100 days, we are past that point. What I'm wondering now

04:17is you have the great dealmaker, as you say, someone who wants to back a winner. Then in

04:21Moscow, you have Vladimir Putin, who does not want to back down or surrender. In the middle,

04:27you have Zelensky. And neither Washington nor Moscow appear ready to be persuaded to do anything

04:37what they see as right. So how does Zelensky navigate all of this?

04:43In short, with great difficulty, and the same goes very much for the European partners and

04:49allies who have been supporting them, where do you position yourselves? And

04:54excuse me, what aid do you actually offer to support your ally, but in the same way is

05:00geared in a way that structures towards providing, trying to enhance the prospects for peace?

05:05Hence why we see this European discussions about rearmament and rearmament funds being

05:12developed to try and aid that, which feeds again into what President Macron said earlier on.

05:19Whereby requipping and rearming, that's the way that Europe can help guarantee

05:24security within Europe, moving forward into the future, but also considering how to

05:33proceed in case of continued American withdrawal from European support.

05:40And at a certain point, is Ukraine's President Zelensky? I mean, if this drags on,

05:45is he going to have to consider signing a peace deal, even

05:49if it's an ugly peace deal that is important to get a deal done?

05:54I think what's key for Ukraine is working out what their red lines are and what they are and

05:58aren't prepared to accept. And by far away, the most substantive issue there is territory.

06:05What territory are they prepared to accept is no longer Ukrainian. Crimea is the most likely one

06:13that they'd probably consider. But there are reports that what Russia is actually seeking

06:20is not just the land they presently occupy, but also some further land. And that starts to get

06:26very problematic and be almost an impossible deal to sell, in which case I don't see a way that

06:34President Zelensky could sign something unless it has some degree of balance and concessions

06:40in it from Russia as well. Gavin, thank you very much. Dr. Gavin Hall speaking to us from Glasgow.

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