'Putin has no interest in an overall ceasefire, he wants to continue his war on land'

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00:00Negotiations between the United States and Russia, which took place in Riyadh, have yielded

00:04no results for now. Earlier today, the American delegation met with their Ukrainian counterparts.

00:10The discussions were aimed at securing a maritime ceasefire. Yesterday's talks between the U.S. and

00:15Russia went on for 12 hours, but no joint statement was reached. For more on this story,

00:20we can bring in John Herbst, Senior Director at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center,

00:26as well as a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Thank you very much for joining us on the program

00:30today. Now, we have these talks that were underway in Riyadh. Yesterday, we had 12 hours of negotiations

00:38between the U.S. and the Russian side. Why is it taking so hard to reach a breakthrough on

00:43this maritime ceasefire, considering there was already one in the past?

00:48We don't have, at this point, details on the talks. We do know that Putin has no interest

00:56in having an overall ceasefire. He wants to continue his war on land. A ceasefire at sea

01:03is something which, in theory, should be achievable because the Russian Black Sea

01:08fleet has been driven out of the central and western part of the Black Sea, out of Crimea,

01:14by Ukrainian drones. So until we have more information, it's not clear why there's not

01:20an agreement on a naval ceasefire. But the reason why there's no overall ceasefire

01:25is Putin wants to continue taking more Ukrainian territory. That is the problem.

01:30Indeed, we do have Russia that has claimed more in eastern Ukraine today, more territory in eastern

01:38Ukraine. Last week, we had a much-hyped call between the U.S. president and Russia's Vladimir

01:44Putin. Then a day later, we had Zelensky, who was briefed on the outcome of that call. And it

01:50seemed that there was a ceasefire reached in theory on energy infrastructure. But it seems

01:55that Moscow and Ukraine and Kyiv have two very different interpretations of what was agreed to

02:01last week. Is there or is there not a ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure?

02:07Well, I think a ceasefire was reached. But of course, the Russians broke that ceasefire within

02:13an hour or two of it being reached, and Ukrainians responded. I'm not sure there's been much in the

02:20way of energy infrastructure attacks since then. So there's a kind of a ceasefire relating to

02:26energy installations.

02:28Okay, because it seems that Ukraine wants a ceasefire on energy as well as infrastructure,

02:36which are two very different things, because there's one energy infrastructure and there's

02:39infrastructure, infrastructure.

02:41You're absolutely right. And as you'll recall, after that phone call between Putin and Trump,

02:47the Russians said this is only on energy. And Trump posted on Truth Social, it involved

02:52infrastructure too. But then Whitkoff, I don't know, a day later, not too long afterwards,

02:58said no, the Russians only agreed to a ceasefire on energy installations because there too,

03:05Ukraine has been very effective going after Russian hydrocarbon facilities.

03:11The language out of Washington has changed substantially since January, before we'd have

03:18President Joe Biden who said the war would end on Ukraine's terms. Now it seems that the war

03:23will end because the U.S. says it needs to end at some point. When we think of an eventual

03:29long-term ceasefire, I think everyone's aware now that Ukraine will have to seize some territory.

03:36Would that have been the case even if the Democrats had won the White House?

03:41Well, you recall that at various times Biden and his team said, well, you know, it's unlikely

03:49Ukraine could take back some or most of the territory that the Russians have conquered.

03:54But it was never explicit. And they always say Ukraine has to make its own decisions.

03:59Trump is trying to push both sides into a peace. And the peace that Trump is talking about

04:08requires compromise from Ukraine on territory and NATO. But it also requires compromise from Russia

04:16on the security that would make it much harder for Russia to take control of most of the country.

04:22So Trump's proposed putting European troops into Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression

04:28and also to continue arming Ukraine substantially so Russia again does not attack after a ceasefire.

04:35And we know that Zelensky has nodded, not happily, but nodded to the concept of

04:40compromise on territory and even on NATO. And the Russians have categorically rejected

04:46either European troops in Ukraine or for that matter, continuing weapons arms supplies to

04:51Ukraine. So it's clear who the impediment to a ceasefire is. Because, Mr. Ambassador,

04:58one of the proposals the Europeans, the British and the French have been toying with

05:03is this idea of forming a coalition of the willing to oversee any ceasefire

05:08in Ukraine. However, Steve Whitkoff, who appeared with Tucker Carlson just a couple of days ago,

05:13said this is posture and pose and called it simplistic. Trump, up until now, has been

05:19calling for Europe to do more to secure itself. However, when Europe says this is what we're

05:25willing to do, the Trump administration says no. You're right that Whitkoff apparently has

05:34contradicted Trump. And obviously, the president is the guy who makes the decisions. But that

05:42statement by Whitkoff, among other statements by Whitkoff, have raised questions about what

05:47the Trump administration is up to. And there's not clarity right now on that point. But it is

05:53worth recalling that just three weeks ago, Trump greeted Starmer and Macron in separate visits to

05:59the White House very favorably because of their efforts on putting together this coalition of the

06:07willing. Indeed. But then we saw how the interaction with Vladimir Zelensky ended.

06:15Let me talk about another thing, Steve, Whitkoff floated. This is the idea of giving Ukraine

06:21Article 5 protections but not giving them member status of NATO. Is this something that would be

06:27palatable for the Russians, for the Americans, and for the Europeans?

06:32Of course it would not be palatable for the Russians. I think if the Trump administration

06:39were pushed today on this question, they would not be enthusiastic. Where they might be in the

06:47months to come as the war drags on is a whole different question. Because again, Putin is

06:52determined to take more Ukrainian land because he wants to establish effective political control over

06:58that country. I don't know if you heard my previous conversation with my colleague about

07:05this bombshell revelation from Jeffrey Goldberg with the Atlantic that he was mistakenly included

07:12on a group chat. Now, one of the things that was discussed was European freeloading, something

07:17the US Vice President J.D. Vance said. Does the United States no longer consider Europe an ally?

07:27It does, but we've seen a very peculiar approach by this administration or members

07:32of this administration towards our allies. I mean, it's hard to really explain

07:39what Trump is doing relating to Canada or relating to Denmark, two exemplary allies.

07:47And we do know that in the first term, Trump was very hard on Germany.

07:53And while Germany at that time was appeasing Russia left and right, I'm not certain that

07:59we should have approached it the way that Trump did. Of course, I'm also critical of Biden for

08:06going along with German appeasement of Russia during his term. But this is not a good thing

08:13for the United States. It's not a good thing for the Western world because our alliance system,

08:19our friends make us stronger. And it's a very nasty world out there as the Russians demonstrate

08:24in Ukraine every day. And the Chinese, too, are rather aggressive as we watch their wolf diplomacy

08:30in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Sorry to jump in there, but just before I end

08:37the interview with you, you were a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. We know that the Trump

08:43administration seems to be in a hurry to end this war. But when we hear people like Steve Whitkoff,

08:50who who are at the forefront, essentially, of negotiating an end to this war, he seems to have

08:56or he seems to try and want to paint a very different picture of Vladimir Putin. This is,

09:01of course, somebody who has sat in front of Vladimir Putin in recent months. And he seems to

09:06say that he's willing for peace. He doesn't have ambitions to take all of Europe. What would you

09:12advise the U.S. delegation as a former ambassador yourself? I think that statements like that

09:19do not make the United States look strong. I think they are naive at best. It's possible

09:26that this is a calculated ploy to try and somehow jolly Putin into making concessions.

09:34But the history of U.S., Soviet and U.S.-Russian relations suggests that when an aggressive

09:44nation is pursuing policies that contradict American interests, what you need is countermeasures

09:50and strength, not kind words and caresses to persuade them to desist in their threats to

09:59the United States and our allies and our friends. Mr. Woodcock is a very successful businessman.

10:06I think he needs some advisors as he conducts his diplomatic mission.

10:11We'll see how things pan out on securing an end to the war. Ambassador Hirst,

10:15thank you so much for joining us on the program today.

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