The West, Russia and the 'ties' that bind: 'Progressive sanctions' are the 'crux of problem'

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00:00 And for more, we're joined by Paul Valais.

00:02 He is an associate fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

00:05 Thanks so much for being with us here on France 24.

00:08 We just saw a report there on the diamond trade and Russia's part in it.

00:12 Why is this figuring as an issue at this G7, do you think?

00:16 Well, obviously, what the G7 powers are interested in

00:22 is consolidating the sanctions regime.

00:25 And while we know that it has to cover a variety of industries

00:30 and it's being a characteristic of these sanctions regimes

00:33 to be introduced in stages, so covering one industry after another

00:38 in a way, as we know,

00:42 the oil industry was targeted first before the gas industry.

00:46 And of course, now we're moving towards diamonds.

00:49 And while this does have

00:51 a quite strategic implication as well,

00:54 because one forgets the diamonds are not just an item for the luxury industry,

00:59 but they are a key component of precision industries.

01:03 Well, so this is the second G7 summit since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

01:08 What do you expect the G7 leaders will decide when it comes to supporting Ukraine?

01:13 We just saw that the U.S.

01:15 is backing efforts to provide F-16 fighter jets to Kiev.

01:19 Do you think that, you know, others will be encouraged to do the same?

01:23 Well, indeed, it's important for the G7 countries

01:27 to be quite well aligned on their policies of supporting Ukraine,

01:32 including the decisions that have to be made about arms provisions as well.

01:39 We know that the aircraft question has been a very sticky one,

01:44 well, of course, from the start of the war, but of course,

01:47 increasingly in recent weeks.

01:50 And the fact that these G7 powers could eventually come to an agreement

01:56 on how and how are the modalities of supplying aircraft

02:01 and the F-16 presents the interest of being a very widely

02:06 widely distributed aircraft,

02:09 some most largely manufactured modern combat aircraft

02:13 supplying most of the Western air forces,

02:17 which means that, of course, any country that has F-16s

02:21 can provide that with the U.S. agreement

02:25 to that and to their servicing and to, of course, the training of pilots.

02:30 And so, yes, the G7 is a venue for this to be decided.

02:36 When we talk about sanctions against Russia,

02:39 is there any proof that measures taken by the G7 countries

02:43 have any effect on Vladimir Putin?

02:46 Is there anything that the G7 group could do to deter him?

02:50 Well, that's the crux of the problem, because, of course,

02:56 the progressive sanctions do not mean a complete cutting off of ties.

03:01 And of course, that results from a desire

03:06 to eventually keep open some channels of dialogue and so on.

03:12 And because, of course, there are still certain dependencies

03:16 in the world economies

03:17 that make a total cutting off of trade with Russia very difficult to implement.

03:23 So obviously, this is something that the most advanced economies

03:28 have to negotiate step by step at the G7 and in other venues.

03:33 There's obviously a recurrent problem.

03:37 The war has been going on for a year and a half.

03:40 And so there is questioning as to whether the sanctions are effective or not,

03:45 as you've just asked.

03:46 But the issue is also about, of course, third parties,

03:52 including China and the Global South and many powers,

03:57 including some of them who are attending the G7 as invitee powers.

04:03 And the point is to drive that the fact that there's always more

04:09 that can be implemented, obviously, the fundamental decision

04:12 to halt the invasion of Ukraine has come from Moscow.

04:18 But this will only occur when Moscow comes to a decision

04:23 that its position is actually untenable.

04:26 And the sanctions are part of the means to try to get that,

04:30 along with, of course, the military successes of the Ukrainian forces.

04:34 You mentioned China briefly before we let you go.

04:37 What message do you think the G7 leaders are trying to send to Beijing?

04:40 There's a strong message sent to Beijing.

04:43 Obviously, you know, the choice of Hiroshima as a venue

04:47 for the summit is not just a recalling of the

04:52 the nuclear strike that ended the Second World War, but it's also

04:55 a strong message about what is the ultimate result

05:01 of a war of imperial aggression launched by powers

05:06 that leads to eventual destructive effects.

05:09 And obviously, by agreeing on a strong stance against Russia,

05:14 there's also a message sent by the G7 against Chinese economic coercion.

05:19 And that is a message that the US administration,

05:22 but other countries as well, are keen to get through.

05:25 OK, we'll have to leave it there.

05:27 Paul Vellay, associate fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

05:30 Thanks so much for joining us tonight on France 24.

05:33 You're most welcome.

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