00:00Well, for more, let's cross to Jeremy Guest, Professor of International Affairs and Economics at HEC, the French Business School.
00:08Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
00:11Thanks for having me.
00:13So trade tariffs now for as political sanctions. Your thoughts?
00:21Look, I mean, there's nothing unusual about this when we know how Donald Trump operates.
00:27This is a transactional view of the world at work, the translation of a transactional view of the world.
00:34And it's also this old philosophy that has been dear to him for quite some time, which is in this negotiation process, the point is to find a deal, not a compromise, make outrageous claims, try to identify your counterpart's red lines, and then basically be able to find a deal.
00:53So this tough talk that your report just talked about, well, is not unexpected.
00:59It's what you would see in the midst of a trade war.
01:02But don't be surprised either when there's a deal in a month or two months from now, because this is the trademark of the art of the deal.
01:10And it's what we've been used to with Donald Trump.
01:12Yeah, but are we mixing apples and oranges here?
01:15Because it's one thing to threaten China over its trade practices and then come down from a hard bargain position.
01:28It's another in this case where he's asking for Brazil to change its domestic politics.
01:34No, but look, I mean, you're exactly right.
01:39But at the end of the day, the real issue at stake for Donald Trump is his brand name, his last name.
01:48If he can claim a victory to his base, to his MAGA base domestically, that's the only thing that matters.
01:56In the particular case of Brazil, there is a form of replication of what you see in the United States.
02:04You have the left wing, you have the right wing, and Donald Trump is trying to bat for the former president of Brazil.
02:11So if he can go back home and say, look, I am fighting for conservatives across the planet, and look at me.
02:17I basically am mobilizing, you know, all of the forces to fight, you know, for the people who look like us.
02:23This is tribal politics at work, and he knows this is what's going to get political mileage at home.
02:28So, of course, we can be incredibly worried about what this means in terms of globalization.
02:33But let's not miss the point here that Donald Trump doesn't care.
02:36And will he start to care if it spooks investors?
02:40Has it spooked investors?
02:42We're seeing the U.S. dollar, which has fallen, particularly against the euro.
02:46Is this a direct correlation with Donald Trump's erratic policies as you describe them?
02:53So this is honestly the million-dollar question.
02:56We already saw this at play in April when he first announced the first rounds of tariffs, right?
03:04We saw a lot of preoccupation on the debt market, in particular not only coming from China but from Japan, a friendly power too.
03:11And supposedly, this is where he started to back off.
03:16You know, I know, we all know that what matters at the end of the day in American politics is the state of the economy.
03:22And an economic crisis can be fatal to any president, maybe to Donald Trump included, right?
03:28So, yes, this is where he may be able to back off.
03:31But you know what?
03:32From the standpoint of the state of economic fundamentals right now in the United States, they're still fine.
03:39Inflation hasn't had the peak that we would have expected given Trump's policies when it comes to trade tariffs and to immigration.
03:48Inflation still remains quite reasonable.
03:52Unemployment remains reasonably low.
03:55So for now, yes, he's probably cautious or his advisers are probably cautious.
03:59But I don't think we've seen any kind of warning signal for him to be inclined to change his mind at this point, at least.
04:08Jeremy Gez, many thanks for joining us here on France 24.
