As tariffs loom in Trump's 2nd term, EU must 'deepen single market, have a competitiveness strategy'

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00:00One man who may gain a lot from Trump returning to the White House is a Russian president,

00:04an authoritarian leader whom the Republican had repeatedly praised over the years.

00:08Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory.

00:12Trump has criticized USAID to Ukraine and pledged to end the war within 24 hours without

00:17ever specifying how he would do that.

00:19Trump told America's NBC News that he had not talked to Putin since his victory, but

00:24said, quote, I think we will speak.

00:26Democrats, Ukrainians, and some other people in Eastern Europe fearing that move may only

00:30embolden the Kremlin.

00:32Russia widely accused of interfering in the 2016 election to boost Trump's campaign

00:36against Hillary Clinton, claims that have been rejected by Moscow.

00:41Meanwhile, Hungary's Viktor Orban, widely seen as Trump and Putin's closest ally

00:45in Europe, on Thursday, he hosted more than 40 European leaders in Budapest for a summit.

00:50Hungary holds the EU's rotating presidency.

00:53Now, top EU officials have often accused Orban of allowing democratic backsliding in its

00:57own country while taking a Russia friendly stance that has blocked military and financial

01:02aid to Ukraine.

01:03At Thursday's summit, Orban said the U.S. under Trump will quit the war in Ukraine and

01:08that Europe cannot afford it alone.

01:09Take a listen.

01:10The American elections closed a chapter.

01:17The world will change.

01:18It will change faster than we think.

01:24There are big, huge questions on the table, war or peace, migration or protection, splitting

01:30into blocks or connectivity, subordination or European sovereignty.

01:38Joining me from Brussels is Sophie Portschlegel, deputy director of the think tank Europe Jacques

01:43Delors.

01:44Hello to you and thank you for speaking to France 24.

01:47Is Europe prepared for another Trump presidency?

01:50Well, I don't think we are.

01:53I think the problem was that after the first Trump administration, we were just hoping

01:57for the best and waited for Joe Biden to start again in 2020.

02:01But the truth is that independently of who's in the White House, the transatlantic relations

02:06have been weakened for a while and Europe is definitely not in the focus of American

02:10foreign policy, which means that we need to Trump proof our EU policy and we need to make

02:16sure that we're more coordinated because with a Trump in the White House, the next

02:20four years basically mean that Europe can be fragmented and weakened very heavily.

02:24So when we talk about Trump proofing Europe, what does that mean?

02:27Because there are some people thinking whatever he did in the first term, he might double

02:32down and be even more severe this time around.

02:34What would another Trump presidency look like?

02:38Do you expect something more severe?

02:40Yes, it will definitely be something else in 2016.

02:44Everyone only needs to read the Project 2025 from the Heritage Foundation.

02:48And when they say that they will take over these proposals, then we should believe them,

02:52which basically means that in terms of security and defense on the one hand and on trade and

02:57the economy, Europe really needs to make sure that we are united.

03:01It's unclear whether, for instance, Trump would leave NATO.

03:04But I think it's clearly a question of now of really, you know, making sure that our

03:09defense is stable, also making sure that we are continuing to support Ukraine, because

03:13without American aid, that will be way more expensive for Europe.

03:17And in terms of trade, we can expect, you know, some tariffs, which would also have

03:23a very negative effect on our European economy, which means that we need to deepen the single

03:27market.

03:28We need to have a competitiveness strategy and we need to make sure that we're not losing

03:31out on the clean transition.

03:33Two points I'd like to bring up.

03:34You say we need to make sure Europe is united.

03:38Is Europe united?

03:39Secondly, Viktor Orban doesn't think we need to support Ukraine.

03:43He thinks there needs to be a ceasefire to end a war that he thinks will be too expensive,

03:48that Europe has no way of financing and no clear idea of when it would end.

03:52Yes, I think the problem is that we see that now with Trump, far-right forces have been

03:57strengthened in Europe.

03:58And so it's a question of democratic forces allying themselves and being together to make

04:03sure that we're not leaving the ground to far-right forces.

04:07They are already in governments in the Netherlands and Sweden.

04:09We already have Orban, who very much likes to work with Putin.

04:13And now we also are under attack from the West, which means that those remaining democratic

04:18forces in Europe, you should make sure that we are continuing to support Ukraine.

04:22Because yeah, the question is, what kind of ceasefire do we want?

04:25Do we want half of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty to be gone and left to Russia?

04:30Or do we want really to make sure that we have still sovereign Ukraine?

04:34Because the problem is also that Putin is not likely to stop in Ukraine if he feels

04:38emboldened.

04:39And that we have countries like the Baltic countries that are very close to the border

04:42and, you know, are very justified to be so scared of Russia.

04:48We see former ECB chief Mario Draghi saying Europe must make radical reforms, a 400 paid

04:54report that they're going to be debating in Budapest today.

04:58What reforms do you think need to be made?

05:02So I think the big issue is that we see that our economy is not doing well at the moment.

05:06And I don't think that petty nationalism is going to solve it, which means we need to

05:10make sure we deepen the single market to create some new growth.

05:14We need to also make sure that some of the industry sectors are supported properly.

05:18So to have a common industrial policy, because just supporting our companies, one company

05:22here and there is not going to cut it.

05:24To make sure that, for instance, on batteries, you know, electrolyzes, heat pumps, we still

05:28have a European manufacturing base as well.

05:32Some trade defense mechanisms that we have, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs, are

05:37only a way to kind of gain a little bit of time.

05:39But we really need to make sure that we also invest massively in innovation and research

05:44and keep it in Europe.

05:45And I think that's something where we really are under pressure to work together as Europe.

05:49And the problem that I see is, to also respond to your question before, that we have a weak

05:54in France and Germany at the moment, especially with the German traffic light coalition, which

05:59obviously fell apart a few days ago.

06:02So the question is, who can lead in Europe?

06:05Because von der Leyen really has the ambitions, you know, the strategies are there.

06:08They've been done already.

06:10It's now a question of political will, of putting these plans to action.

06:14And for that, you really need to have Europeans ahead of states and governments coming together

06:19as they did in Budapest, but really making sure that they push things forward.

06:23Yeah.

06:24Can you answer that question?

06:25Who can lead in Europe?

06:26If we have the German coalition collapsing, who can step in?

06:32That's a big question.

06:33I think it's not only, it's not because we have now a minority government in Germany

06:36that we don't have a government anymore.

06:38I think it's down to also Schultz-Macron, of course, but I'm also looking especially

06:42at Donald Tusk in Poland, for instance, or even Keir Starmer in the UK when it comes

06:47to defence.

06:48I know that the UK is not part of the EU anymore, but, you know, in terms of security, there's

06:52tons of stuff that you can do outside of the EU institutions, especially on foreign

06:56and defence policy.

06:57So I think those four countries that also have, you know, an economic impact that are

07:02quite big, and even, I would say, Sanchez from Spain.

07:06So they are people that can really kind of step up their game if they want to.

07:10And the most important is that those countries that want to take a step back are not an obstacle

07:14in the way, but really make sure to give the way to those member states in the EU or those

07:20countries in Europe that really want to move forward.

07:22Sophie, thank you very much for your time and your analysis.

07:24Sophie Pornschlegel speaking to us from Brussels.

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