US Presidential Election will be less about policy, 'this is really an election about democracy'

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00:00U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to make their first

00:04joint appearance on the campaign trail since she replaced him as the Democratic candidate.

00:09They've chosen the union-heavy city of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for their rally, which comes

00:14as the U.S. marks the national Labor Day holiday this Monday.

00:17Pennsylvania is also Biden's birth state and is one of a handful of swing states that could

00:22decide the election, which is now just over two months away.

00:26Monty Francis has more.

00:30Kamala Harris spent the Labor Day holiday campaigning in two key states, Michigan and

00:35Pennsylvania.

00:36With just two months to go until Election Day, the Democratic nominee is trying to sway

00:40unions and blue-collar workers.

00:43We celebrate unions because unions helped build America, and unions helped build America's

00:51middle class.

00:53There are at least seven swing states, and for his part, Donald Trump and his running

00:58mate have events planned in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona this week.

01:03Over the weekend, the former president and Republican nominee held a rally in Pennsylvania

01:07where he lobbed personal attacks against his opponent.

01:11If you look at Kamala and you look at what she's done to every place she's touched has

01:17turned to s**t.

01:20With the campaigns in high gear, they are now in the final stretch to Election Day.

01:25Early voting in some states begins this week on September 6th.

01:30On September 10th, Harris and Trump face off in their first and possibly only televised

01:35debate.

01:36Then on September 18th, attention turns back to Trump's legal issues when he's due in court

01:41to be sentenced in his New York hush money case, in which prison time could be a possibility.

01:47Meanwhile, polls show that for voters in the swing states, the economy remains their number

01:52one concern, but polls also show that the issue of abortion is central to how they will

01:57cast their ballots.

01:59Once we've seen our bodily autonomy go, what comes next?

02:03My biggest fears is where the economy's going.

02:05Interest rates are at an all-time high.

02:07On October 1st, vice presidential nominees Tim Walz and J.D. Vance will face off on the

02:12debate stage, all of this leading up to Election Day on November 5th.

02:18Well, for some analysis on the current state of the race, we can bring in Miranda Yaver,

02:23a political scientist and assistant professor of health policy at the University of Pittsburgh.

02:28Thank you so much for joining us.

02:30Now, Pennsylvania is going to be one of the key states in this election.

02:34On average, polls there do show Harris with a slight lead, though Donald Trump still comes

02:39out on top in some surveys.

02:41Which candidate, being someone in Pennsylvania yourself, which candidate do you see as having

02:46the advantage there?

02:49It's going to be very close, and I think it's safe to say that how Pennsylvania votes is

02:52going to determine the outcome of this election.

02:55As you said on the front end of this segment, this is a very union-heavy state, and this

03:01is the most pro-union ticket the Democrats have run, and it stands in stark contrast

03:06to what we have seen on the Republican side.

03:09So Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are here in Pittsburgh on Labor Day.

03:15We saw at the Democratic Convention broad embrace of unions, and I think this is going

03:19to be really pivotal because workers, the middle class, these are all groups that we

03:26need to succeed in America.

03:30And I think that the Democratic Party's messaging is going to speak to that, but it is going

03:35to be down to the wire, and Pennsylvania's an early voting state.

03:41We'll see what happens.

03:43What I've experienced in both talking with people and actually doing a little bit of

03:51campaigning myself is I've noticed that there has been a lot of receptivity, both to Kamala

03:56Harris and to Tim Walz.

03:58Now, Donald Trump, meanwhile, is having a pretty low-key Labor Day weekend.

04:03What do you think is going to be his main campaign strategy in the coming months?

04:08So I think it's safe to say that the Republican Party is going to lean very heavily on immigration.

04:15One of the things that we're seeing in Pennsylvania and in other parts of the country where there

04:20are these pivotal states and where the polls are close is that the Republicans have started

04:24to run an ad against Kamala Harris about an immigrant who committed a crime and basically

04:33trying to attach that to Kamala Harris's policies.

04:36This is a strategy that we saw in 1988 with a campaign ad about someone named Willie Horton,

04:43led by Leah Atwater.

04:46There isn't a whole lot of support to show that it actually affected the election, but

04:50these are strategies that we're seeing resurfacing.

04:53And it is a message that Republicans and independents tend to be receptive to.

04:59So I think we're going to see a lot of emphasis on crime and immigration.

05:04And that's and it's no surprise that we're starting to see Kamala Harris and the Democratic

05:08Party pivot a little bit to the center on issues of immigration, because at the end

05:13of the day, independents are going to help decide the outcome of this election.

05:19And that means that means being able to speak across party lines.

05:24The Democrats have really been riding on a high since Kamala Harris took over as the

05:28candidate.

05:29How do you expect next week's debate to shift that dynamic, if at all?

05:34Yeah.

05:35So, you know, the political science literature up until, you know, very recently was not

05:42of the necessarily of the opinion that debates are huge movers and shakers in elections.

05:50Obviously, that was not the case on June 27th.

05:53So this is good.

05:54This is going to be a big moment.

05:55Kamala Harris was a very good debater.

05:59She was very good on the Senate Judiciary Committee in interrogating witnesses.

06:04So, you know, the pressure's on on her side.

06:07And then there's just sort of a question of to what extent Trump can be disciplined.

06:13That is not his strong point, to say the least.

06:17He is going to be muted between, you know, when he's being asked questions.

06:22And so I think that that will operate as a constraint on him.

06:25But the reality is that he needs the debate.

06:28Usually you demand more debates when you're losing.

06:31And he eventually started pushing for more and more debates because he is struggling

06:37a bit in the polls.

06:40And so and so, you know, my expectation is that Kamala Harris is going to do quite well.

06:46But this is not an election short of short of surprises.

06:52So so we'll see, you know, one of the other issues that is really important to emphasize

06:56in this election is just the extent to which so many of the issues on the ballot really

07:01do transcend party lines, because this isn't so much an election about policy.

07:06This is really an election about democracy.

07:09And so one thing that I will really be looking for is questions that center on these issues

07:15of democracy, respect for transitions of power and voting rights.

07:21Absolutely could not be higher.

07:23Miranda Yaver, thank you again so much for your analysis today.

07:26That's Miranda Yaver, a political scientist and assistant professor of health policy at

07:30the University of Pittsburgh.

07:32Thanks so much for having me.

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