US VP candidates have opportunity to 'introduce themselves further' to voters, 'redefine opponents'

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00:00Five weeks to go to presidential elections in the United States, campaigns

00:04by both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump impacted by Hurricane Helene, the storm

00:09leading to over 100 deaths and causing some of the worst flood damage ever for

00:14North Carolina. Harris for her part had to curtail a trip to Las Vegas to head

00:18back to Washington for briefings. While Trump is heading to one of the disaster

00:23zones to see the impact on the ground, he also set up a hurricane relief

00:27fundraiser that collected over 1 million dollars. Well here's the latest

00:31from the current administration and Harris on the hurricane.

00:36The devastation from Hurricane Helene is immense. Millions of Americans are without

00:42power, thousands of families have lost their homes, entire neighborhoods have

00:48been destroyed, major roads have been blocked or damaged, leaving entire towns

00:55inaccessible at this very moment. Already nearly 100 people have been

01:00confirmed dead and hundreds more are missing. The destruction we have seen in

01:06Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and

01:11Virginia

01:13is heartbreaking.

01:15In coordination with state and local officials, President Biden and I will

01:19continue to make sure that communities have the support and the resources that

01:24they need, not only to respond to this storm and its immediate aftermath, but

01:30also the resources they will need to recover.

01:34And this all comes as the US presidential running mates gear up for

01:37their first and only debate of the 2024 campaign. Just five weeks to go now to

01:41election day. JD Vance and Tim Walz will be facing off this Tuesday. Well to give

01:45us an idea of what to look out for and which way the US may be leading, let's

01:49cross over and speak to lecturer at US politics at Queen Mary University in

01:53London, Mr Richard Johnson. Mr Johnson, thanks for your time. Listening there to

01:57Kamala Harris who had to leave her presidential campaign trail to go back

02:01to Washington to deal with the hurricane. Is being in administration a

02:05help or a hindrance at this stage?

02:08Well, first of all, I mean, the situation is deeply tragic and I just

02:12want to acknowledge that point before we talk about the politics of it. In terms

02:17of the politics, this is a moment for Vice President Harris to present

02:23herself as a presidential figure, as a figure of great weight and substance. I

02:29think that one of the apprehensions that Democrats had when they were

02:33considering whether to replace Kamala Harris, Joe Biden with Kamala Harris at

02:38the top of the ticket, was she had a bit of a reputation as vice president with

02:42being a bit of a sort of lighthearted figure. During this campaign, I think

02:48she's really demonstrated herself to be a person of great seriousness and

02:52substance. And this is a moment that will be testing her. It's your question

02:57about being the incumbent, is this a plus or a minus in political terms? It's

03:03a moment of potential hazard as well. When George W. Bush was president, his

03:08administration was deemed to have badly mishandled the 2005 Hurricane Katrina

03:14in New Orleans. And although he had just been reelected, so it didn't have

03:17any direct impact on his reelection prospects, that was really the beginning

03:21of the end of the Bush presidency in terms of public opinion. And George W.

03:25Bush left the White House, one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S.

03:28history. So if the Biden administration is seen to get the recovery wrong, then

03:33that can be a very, very serious problem for the Harris campaign. But at the

03:38same time, if it's seen to do a good job, then this is a moment that could

03:41really elevate her campaign and her substance. OK, all to play for. But we

03:45are coming back to, as in pretty much every election campaign, I feel the

03:50main issue for voters is notably the economy. It is. And the polls do show

03:57that the economy is top of mind for American voters, as well as issues like

04:03immigration and abortion. But really, it does come back to the economy. This

04:07has been an area of some weakness for Vice President Harris, because there is

04:11a perception, rightly or wrongly, in the American public that the economy is not

04:16as strong as it ought to be. And in fact, that's a consequence of how

04:22inflation has been felt. And although inflation now has got under control,

04:27people see a price difference, right? Inflation, getting inflation under

04:31control doesn't mean that prices go back to the way they were three or four

04:35years ago. It just means they stop going up at a precipitously high rate.

04:40And I think in the debate that Harris did against Trump, although she had a

04:46very strong debate, her answers on the economy at the start of the debate were

04:50probably her weakest moments in the debate, because she's in an awkward

04:54position where she's a member of the Biden administration. So she wants to

04:57defend that record. But she also wants to pivot away from that record and

05:00suggest that she can improve things. So I think this could be a bit of a

05:04challenge for something we'll keep an eye out for in the vice presidential

05:08debate as well. Waltz is a bit freer because he's not a member of the

05:12incumbent administration. And so perhaps he has an opportunity to put a

05:17little bit more distance between the Harris-Waltz campaign and the Biden

05:21administration on the economy.

05:23Indeed, tell us a bit more about how you see this vice presidential or the

05:27running mate debate that is to take place this Tuesday in the United States.

05:31I mean, how important is that for the overall campaign?

05:36I mean, typically we would say that debates have a low impact and vice

05:40presidential debates have an even lower impact.

05:43I mean, there are moments in American history where there are some memorable

05:48lines from vice presidential debates.

05:50Probably the most famous is in 1988, when the Democratic vice presidential

05:54nominee, Senator Lloyd Benston of Texas said to the Republican nominee,

05:58Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana, Senator Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine.

06:03You all know Jack Kennedy after Quayle compared himself to John F.

06:08Kennedy. But generally speaking, it doesn't really get much better than

06:15that. And I think there are some reasons, however, why this vice

06:19presidential debate might assume a bit more weight than usual.

06:22One is that vice presidential debates are often sandwiched in between

06:25presidential debates.

06:27And so they're usually overshadowed by the presidential debate that

06:32follows. At the moment, we're not expecting that to be another

06:35presidential debate. So this is the last time that these two candidates,

06:38the two campaigns will square off.

06:41Secondly, both Waltz and JD Vance are relatively unknown figures in the

06:47American public. Although Waltz has been a politician since 2006, when he

06:51was first elected to the House of Representatives, he was really unknown

06:54on the national stage, unknown outside of his home state of Minnesota

06:58until this summer when Harris picked him. And JD Vance has only been in

07:02elected politics for two years. He was elected to the Ohio, the senator

07:08for Ohio just in the midterm election.

07:11So both candidates have an opportunity to introduce themselves further to

07:16the American public, but also an opportunity to try to to redefine their

07:21opponents. And the final thing I'll just say is this is a very close

07:24race. And this could be the closest race in recent times. And marginal

07:31differences, small differences could tip the balance in the election. And

07:36so anything that could make even a modest shift in the polls, shift to

07:41one or two points one way or another in a few swing states could be highly

07:45consequential.

07:46Richard Johnson from Queen Mary University in London, thank you so much

07:50for your time and your insight. Thanks for joining us.

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