German Chancellor Friedrich Merz braves Oval Office MAGA test

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00The German Chancellor is due in the White House later today, Frederick Merz, set to meet Donald

00:04Trump in the Oval Office. But questions are swirling over what kind of reception

00:08Chancellor will get. This after recent uncomfortable exchanges between Trump and

00:14South Africa's President and even Canada's Prime Minister. Plus, who can forget that

00:18test exchange between the U.S. Vice President, Donald Trump, and Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky.

00:24Trade, NATO, and support for Ukraine expected to top the agenda. For more on what we can expect,

00:31we can go across to Christine Bertzin, Managing Director, Geostrategy North, at the German

00:37Marshall Fund of the United States. Thank you so much for joining us here on the program today.

00:41Now, Germany's new Chancellor is set to walk into the Oval Office, which has become a sort of lion's

00:45den, if you will, even for the United States' top allies. What, according to you, will be topping

00:52the agenda for Merz? Is it going to be trade? Is it going to be NATO? What is it?

00:57Both of those issues are going to be at the top of the agenda. And the question is whether they're

01:02going to be seen as two sides of the same coin or separate issues. First and foremost, Merz is here

01:08to get to know Trump, and Trump will be here to get to know Merz. The German and American relationship

01:14in the Trump administration the first time around was in hot water, and Trump always has very tough

01:20language about Germany. He feels that Germany has freeloaded or taken advantage of the American

01:27security umbrella, and that German industry is trying to out-compete American industry. So there

01:34are defense and economic concerns. But unlike Chancellor Merkel, the last time Trump was president,

01:43Chancellor Merz is a businessman. He is somebody who comes from a world that is not all that different

01:48from the world that Trump comes from. And so the question is, do they get along personally? Is Trump

01:54willing to say, it looks like Germany is moving in the right direction? The recent defense announcements

01:59are certainly a way of showing a new Germany. But a trade conversation is going to be difficult.

02:06And July 9th, we have the anticipation, if it's not delayed again, of course, of high tariffs coming in.

02:13So you will have a tariff conversation, but I don't think we are past a point of contention over.

02:19And a defense conversation, that should be able to go pretty well. What the entire combination of that

02:25is, and what the tone of the meeting will be, is the big question, and that we're going to have to

02:30see at the end of the day. Because Germany is the EU's largest economy. We know that as Merz is in town,

02:38Washington is trying to negotiate with the European Union to strike a free trade agreement. But how does Merz

02:45go about explaining to the US president that the EU is not there to screw the US, but in fact, was created to

02:51prevent war on this continent?

02:55If I was Merz in that room, I wouldn't try to re-prosecute history. I wouldn't try to approach this in a

03:03didactic or in a school teacher manner at all. I think that is going to lead to failure. Instead,

03:09I'd look at the future. What is Europe trying to achieve in its economy? But more importantly,

03:14what is America trying to achieve? How does it get more competitive? How does it outcompete China,

03:20which in many ways is the primary objective that Trump has? And if Europe can be part of that solution,

03:26if Europe and the United States together can build something that Trump wants,

03:30that's a good place to have a conversation. That's a reason not to impose high tariffs,

03:35but instead to reduce trade barriers. If Merz is able to create a conversation in which Trump

03:42thinks it's a good deal for the US, that is a primary objective. Trying to lecture is just going

03:50to result in failure.

03:51Interesting point. But you never know if Donald Trump does pull out things like he did for the

03:55South African president and does a little show and tell in the Oval Office. Now, one of the first

04:00things that the Trump administration did when it returned to power was dispatch J.D. Vance to

04:06Munich. His speech at the Munich Security Conference left this continent stunned, if you will.

04:14And it exposed deep rifts when it came to things like free speech versus far-right extremism here in

04:21Europe. How will Merz handle whatever Trump throws at him on this front?

04:26It's an interesting question whether Trump is going to be bringing up some of these values

04:32questions. The issue of free speech, the issue of restriction on what can be said online, the issue

04:38of access for more far-right parties to traditional political fora. This was especially notable as a

04:45conversation topic during the Munich Security Conference because it was before the elections. And Vice

04:52President Vance is far more tied to these kinds of issues than Trump himself is. Will right now this

05:02kind of values issue come up because we are not in a pre-election time anymore? I am not sure. And would

05:10President Trump himself use this forum in the Oval Office to talk about values and speech rather than

05:17business trade deals or defense just a few weeks before the NATO summit? Again, that doesn't seem

05:24to me to be at the top of the priority. Of course, it is possible that there will be remarks about

05:30Germany's lacking access or depriving certain political parties from access. But I do not foresee

05:39that being the main point or the main event of today's Oval Office interactions. There is a difference

05:47between the various corners of this administration. And I think that that combined agenda for what can

05:54be done next is something that Trump should be willing to focus on. Well, he may have some good

06:00news on the defense front because earlier today, Christine, stay with us. We had the U.S. Defense

06:05Secretary who was attending that NATO defense ministers meeting. And he said that the military alliance

06:10was close to consensus on achieving that 5% target down the line. Take a listen to what he had to say.

06:16This alliance, we believe in a matter of weeks, will be committing to 5%, 3.5% in hard military

06:23and 1.5% in infrastructure and defense related activities. That combination constitutes a real

06:30commitment. And we think every country can step up. So Christine, let me bring you in once again. So if

06:36Chancellor Mertz can show Washington that, look, we're willing to up our military, our commitments

06:44to military spending, that could potentially be a win for him. But another thing that has happened

06:50since in the past few weeks is that the AFD, the far right party in Germany, has been labeled an

06:57extremist organization. This is something that members of the Trump administration have openly

07:02said they have been critical over. How does Mertz go about telling Donald Trump,

07:07this is our business, stay out of it, without schooling him?

07:14Schooling him again is the major risk. I think pointing to the successes that Germany is having

07:19and showing the path that Germany will take to try to develop a deeper and more competitive global

07:27economic relationship and also a deeper defense relationship with Germany taking over a far

07:33greater share of responsibility in Europe should be the focus. I think that it will be very hard to

07:39have a conversation about the AFD because the perception of the party is very different on both sides of the

07:47Atlantic. Will Trump want to see more of the AFD line come to the center in politics in Germany? That's

07:56certainly is possible. And so what would be smarter for Chancellor Merkel to talk about are more of

08:05the issues that the AFD is focused on. And to say that he probably is curious, interested in solving

08:11them too, which is of course what the CDU and the government is doing. The AFD came in at the high

08:19numbers that it did in this past election because of its focus on migration as one of the issues. And of

08:24course, the government and Chancellor Meretz has been focusing more on this in a far tougher line than

08:32others have. And so showing progress on the issues and going away from a discussion of the parties

08:38themselves would be to Germany's benefit and to Meretz's benefit. Now, the war in Ukraine is also expected

08:45to feature this, of course, comes a day after we had the US president who held a phone call with Russia's

08:52Vladimir Putin, who suggested that Moscow is going to respond. He said it was a good conversation, but

09:00it will not lead to, but not one that is going to lead to immediate peace in Ukraine. Washington has made

09:07it quite clear that it's tired of its role in trying to strike a peace deal between these two sides,

09:14which it doesn't look like it's going to bear any fruit and has essentially passed the buck

09:19to Ukraine and Russia to figure it out. What happens if the US stops its military support to Ukraine?

09:27Will Meretz try and say, look, Europe can foot the bill and do this by itself?

09:32Meretz is already showing leadership on Ukraine. This is from the very first days of taking office,

09:40traveling to Kyiv, to hosting Zelensky in Berlin, to the increase in defense spending. These are clear

09:48signals how significant the issue of Ukraine is for Germany. This is also something that the Trump

09:55administration would like to see. What's not clear at all is what it would mean for the United States to

10:00be done with Ukraine? Of course, we hear this sharp rhetoric, but does that mean that the United

10:07States is done being the chief negotiator? Is the United States done providing the support that has

10:13already been paid for or that Ukraine is paying for on the market for its own defenses? Is this a

10:18question of intel sharing, which is incredibly important? None of that is clear in Washington.

10:24And so Germany showing leadership, showing where it can step up and being part of a conversation

10:32on the US contributing where the US is essential is an important piece of what should be happening in

10:39the Oval Office today. That is, it is a tricky situation. I feel that this is a harder conversation

10:46to have than a conversation on NATO. From a European perspective, Ukraine is integral to European security

10:53conversations. From the Washington side, Ukraine is one thing and NATO is another. And so as we just

10:59heard from Secretary Hegseth and the happiness that there is in this administration going into the NATO

11:06summit, that same happiness probably does not extend to the Ukraine conversation. And the Europeans are

11:15going to have to balance the progress they're making on the 5%, doing everything right on defense,

11:21with also ambition on Ukraine. And to try to navigate how to make sure that to show that they are

11:30taking responsibility, taking leadership on providing defense and assistance to Ukraine, while also

11:37showing that there is a role for the United States that the United States should be providing.

11:42Okay, it'll be an interesting meeting in the Oval Office in a couple of hours. Christine,

11:47Bertine, we're going to have to leave with that. Thank you so much for joining us on the program today.

Category

Transcript

Recommended