German party leaders Scholz, Merz 'pleased with results', seeking to shape policy, engage electorate

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00:00Plenty of political instability on both sides of the Rhine.

00:03The German Chancellor this Monday falling on his own sword, Olaf Scholz deciding now

00:11is the time to pull the trigger and stage a vote of no confidence, which as expected

00:17he lost.

00:19That sets the stage for snap elections, most probably on February the 23rd.

00:25Let's go to Berlin.

00:27And France 24 correspondent Nick Holdsworth who joins the conversation.

00:32I don't know if body language matters or not, but Scholz seemed kind of chipper during that

00:40vote and afterwards when he sat down with President Frank-Walter Stonemaier.

00:45Well, absolutely, this is precisely what Olaf Scholz wanted.

00:52He wanted the vote of confidence to be a vote of no confidence so that he could go

00:57to Frank-Walter Stonemaier, the German president, and ask him to dissolve the parliament, the

01:03Bundestag, and call new elections.

01:08I mean, Scholz has been in a very difficult position.

01:12Some may say it's partially of his own making, but when Christian Lindner, his finance minister

01:17from the Free Democrat Party, walked out of the coalition November the 6th, the same

01:24day that Trump was re-elected for a second term in America, the entire political landscape

01:33here has been a complete mess since then.

01:37The traffic light, so-called traffic light coalition of three parties down to two, the

01:41Greens and the Social Democrats, can't get anything passed, can't do anything.

01:45I mean, everything's set in this sort of mud at the moment.

01:50They can't even pass a budget.

01:51And even if those elections are run on the 23rd of February, and if those elections result

01:58pretty swiftly in a new government, and it's going likely to be a coalition, there won't

02:03be a federal budget in Germany until July at the earliest.

02:07Now, that's not going to cause problems for pensioners and people like that getting their

02:12state money.

02:13It won't cause problems for any German company or concern that receives money from the state

02:18because they can only receive up to 45% of what's been pledged in the previous budget.

02:24So we're going to have a period of turmoil.

02:26Now, Schultz, I think, is looking forward to re-engaging in politics.

02:31I mean, if you saw the debate today, his prize moment was wagging his finger at his former

02:39finance minister, Christian Lindner, accusing him of moral immaturity.

02:45And again, the odds on favourite to be the next chance are not Schultz, but the leader

02:50of the centre-right SDU, Friedrich Merz.

02:54He's also pleased because he sees this as a chance to set out policies so that Germans

03:00have a clear understanding of what the differences are in the Bundestag and can make their choice.

03:06So both of the two main leaders of the two biggest parties are pleased with the results.

03:16And at the same time, we may not actually know precisely if that election is going to

03:20be called for the 23rd of February until after the Christmas holidays because the German

03:26president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said these decisions aren't up to the daily beat of politics

03:34or the media.

03:36These are up to the rules of the German constitution and I'll think about this and I'll announce

03:40my decision after the Christmas holidays.

03:42So for the moment, there's kind of this phony war.

03:45We're waiting now to know whether we're going to have those elections in February.

03:49It's interesting because from what you're saying, both Olaf Schultz from the centre-left

03:54and Friedrich Merz from the centre-rights trying to stake out the middle ground.

03:58There had been rumours when the day began, Nick, that the far-right AfD party might vote

04:03against the motion in a bid to throw Schultz off his game.

04:08That did not materialise, though.

04:11No, that didn't.

04:14They had said that they might vote with Schultz's party, the Social Democrats, which is why

04:20the Greens said that they were going to abstain.

04:22In the end, the AfD just did a vault face and voted against Schultz as well.

04:28The results were quite clear.

04:29It was 204 votes to keep Schultz in power and nearly 400 to boot him out and have new

04:39elections.

04:40The AfD, of course, when it comes to the campaign, they are a wild card.

04:47They're polling at the moment 20%, which is three percentage points ahead of the Social

04:51Democrats, Schultz's party, polling at around 17%.

04:55And the bookie's favourite, the CDU-CSU coalition led by Friedrich Merz, polling at 31%.

05:02But whoever actually gets the largest proportion of the votes is almost certainly not going

05:09to have a majority.

05:10We're going to have another coalition run in Germany come the spring.

05:16Nick Holdsworth reporting live from Berlin.

05:18Thanks so much for that.

05:19And joining our conversation now, pleased as always to welcome Elisabeth Humpert-Dorfmüller,

05:24co-president of the Paris branch or the international branch of Olaf Schultz's SPD party.

05:31Thanks for being with us.

05:33Lots to unpack, including what we just heard about budget problems on both sides of the

05:37Rhine.

05:39Let's begin, though, with Olaf Schultz being so chipper when he's polling behind the AfD.

05:45He was like that in 21 too.

05:47I mean, nobody thought in the beginning of 21 that he would win the election and he won

05:50the election.

05:51That was because the candidate of the right of the Christian Democrats was very bad.

05:56This time, the candidate of the Christian Democrat, I don't think he's popular.

06:01He's not popular, but he might win.

06:03It looks like he will win next February.

06:07The journalist we just heard says that there's going to be again a coalition.

06:11But this is Germany.

06:12It's always been coalitions.

06:13There was only once a mandate from Konrad Adenauer in four years where he did rule alone

06:21without a coalition.

06:22Between 49 and now we have always had coalitions.

06:25So this is the German way of democracy.

06:28And the German way of democracy, this is the big difference with France, includes that

06:34it's only the chancellor who can call the vote of no confidence.

06:37He can do that.

06:38He can do that.

06:39But the parliamentarians themselves can't do it.

06:41Yes, that's true.

06:42That's part of the constitution.

06:43I mean, it's a rare tool, I have to say.

06:46It has not been so much utilized yet.

06:49It has been four or five times since 1949.

06:52So it's not a tool somebody will want to govern with or wants to threaten with something.

06:58It's very rarely used.

07:02Last time it was used, it was Chancellor Schröder who used it in 2005, who thought he could

07:07win after that.

07:08He didn't.

07:10And in both cases, Schröder in 2005 and Scholz now, they are in a position where the situation

07:19of the country is very difficult.

07:22Schröder still had his majority, though, in 2005.

07:25Scholz doesn't have a majority anymore, as you know, because the Liberal Party left.

07:30So he's a very confident person, Scholz.

07:33So he thinks he can win.

07:36I mean, it's against the odds, really.

07:38So let's cut to the chase here, Elisabeth.

07:41Which is a bigger mess right now, France with its budget problems or Germany with its budget

07:45problems?

07:46It's a very good question.

07:47I mean, these two countries, you can really compare them in many respects.

07:52But I think the problem, the main problem in both cases stems from the Ukrainian war.

07:58I mean, it was in 22 that the war in Ukraine started and that Macron did not, a few months

08:04later, get his majority in the parliament, which he would have wanted to get, of course.

08:09Because of what?

08:10Because of inflation, because of instability.

08:12So France was very affected.

08:14Germany was even more affected because it's a much more industrialized country.

08:18So industry in Germany right now is suffering a lot.

08:22I mean, energy prices.

08:24Germany is really losing its momentum here, its industrial momentum.

08:29In 24 and in 23, in Germany, one of the only countries, biggest countries in the world

08:35who has experienced recession.

08:37It's linked to the Ukrainian war.

08:39So I would say you can compare them both.

08:41They have different political systems.

08:43They have different majorities.

08:45But I think the problem stems from the same origin, unfortunately.

08:49Mark Perlman, the problem in France, can you trace it to Ukraine to a large degree?

08:56I mean, to some degree, I wouldn't say you cannot trace to Ukraine.

09:02I think Macron has his self-inflicted wounds because clearly he thought that he could,

09:10after he was reelected in 2022, which was a historical performance, he didn't campaign

09:16really for the ensuing legislative elections, kind of thought, you know, it would happen,

09:22he would get a majority again.

09:24And this is where the problem started.

09:26He only had a relative majority.

09:28But if you compare to the mess he has since created by calling those snap elections last

09:35summer, now there's no majority anymore.

09:37So even a relative majority now seems a luxury.

09:40Yes, they could, they had a problem, but they could pass legislation.

09:44Now France finds itself in really a crisis, a political crisis, because there's no majority

09:51and we're far from a majority.

09:52All the three blocs are far away from the 289-seat majority in the National Assembly.

10:01So yes, obviously there are external factors, but there are also internal factors, political

10:08factors, you know, the national rally keeping the momentum, a leftist coalition that was

10:16able to form and challenge Emmanuel Macron's hope that he would really build a centrist

10:23central party.

10:25And this hope has vanished.

10:26So a splintering of politics here in France, Elisabeth Humbertoff-Müller.

10:32Your thoughts?

10:33Marine Le Pen, because she has the largest political bloc, as Marc was saying, the largest

10:39party in parliament, she was the first one this morning to go to see the prime minister.

10:45There's a sort of legitimization of the far right.

10:48Again, how far do you push the comparisons between France and Germany when it comes to

10:52that?

10:53I mean, it's the same development, really.

10:56I mean, the Le Pens have been very present in French politics since the 80s, so it stems

11:01from a very long time ago.

11:03That was not the case in Germany.

11:05In Germany, it started with the euro crisis.

11:07So in the 2007, 8s, 9s, when this party AfD really got more and more popular.

11:16So now they have a little bit changed, they're even more far right than they used to be.

11:23So they have some fascists and I mean, even sometimes neo-Nazi characteristics, sometimes,

11:31I'm not saying all of them, but they are very, very far right.

11:35Much far right than Le Pen.

11:37More far right?

11:38Yes.

11:39Yes, definitely.

11:40I mean, Jean-Marie Le Pen was a different thing.

11:42But now, if you compare with Marine Le Pen, it has nothing to do anymore with it.

11:46By the way, they're not sitting in the same parliamentary group in the European Parliament

11:50anymore.

11:51And even on economic issues, they totally diverge.

11:56I mean, AfD is not only very far right on this society issues, politically also, but

12:02economically, it's very liberal.

12:05So it's the classical far right who does not, they don't really want to help the poor people.

12:12I mean, that's not their point.

12:14One final question.

12:15You mentioned the war in Ukraine had an impact on inflation and such.

12:21Frederik Mertz, much more hawkish than Olaf Scholz.

12:27Is that a winning posture?

12:30To win the elections?

12:33That's a very good question, because I'm uncertain about it.

12:36Okay, so the support in Ukraine is popular in Germany.

12:40I mean, I don't know, 70% of the Germans think it's very good to support Ukraine.

12:45But they also, a majority of the Germans also thought that the way Scholz handled this was

12:51the right way.

12:52The way to be careful not to send all possible defense material to Ukraine, no defense material

13:01which goes into Russia.

13:03So Scholz is, I mean, Germany is the biggest, second biggest contributor to the Ukrainian

13:09war after the United States.

13:11So Germany does a lot of helping, but Scholz has always been extremely cautious, whereas

13:18Mertz, as you say, is hawkish and wants to put as much as possible into this, let's say,

13:26subject.

13:27And this is probably not going to prove very popular.

13:31So he has probably to scale down this a little bit in order to win the election.

13:35All right, there's a prediction.

13:36And of course, in between, we'll have the inauguration of Donald Trump, Elisabeth Ulrich

13:39Darfmuller.

13:40I want to thank you.

13:41I want to thank as well our politics editor, Mark Perlman.

13:44Stay with us.

13:45Much more to come here on France 24.

13:46More news, plus today's business and sports.

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