EU in uncharted territory: Neither France nor Germany 'able to provide the leadership Europe needs'

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00:00Let's bring in for more analysis Dr. Marta Lorem, a lecturer in politics

00:03with a special focus on the European Union and Europe in general. Dr. Marta Lorem is based at

00:11Cardiff University and thank you very much for being with us. In your view, with your expertise,

00:17what does this fall of the government mean for France in the broader European context right now?

00:24This really places the European Union in a difficult position because at a time when the EU

00:29really needs stability and it needs some form of leadership, it is in a situation where neither

00:35France nor Germany actually have a government and these are the two countries that are the

00:40most responsible for setting the direction of European integration.

00:46Dr. Marta, bear with us a moment. We're going to bring in Gulliver Craig, our correspondent

00:50in Kyiv. Gulliver, of course, is our Ukraine correspondent who's been following

00:54matters for us there since the very start of Russia's invasion and, of course, Gulliver has

00:59been based there for many years and has seen the whole development of the situation. Gulliver in

01:03Kyiv, I hope you can hear us. There you are. Great to see you, sir. I hope you're well.

01:08I'm wondering what the feeling is where you are about what's happening in Paris right now.

01:14Well, I can't say that Ukrainians are paying a huge amount of attention to France. There's been

01:18a really unusual amount of foreign news in the Ukrainian media lately and most of it is about

01:24events in Georgia and Syria. Ukrainians follow them very closely because they see them as broadly

01:28in the category of potential problems for Russia. And then in third place, you've got Romania,

01:33which has seen an unexpected sudden rise of far-right pro-Russian forces and that's basically

01:41a trend that Ukrainians view as very worrying and the latest upheaval in France is seen as being

01:46part of that trend. In France, it's not just on the far right but also on the far left.

01:51Forces seen as either being somewhat pro-Russian or too soft on Russia, playing too big a role as

01:57Ukrainians would see it in the political process. And then there's another trend in European politics

02:04or reality of European politics that this event in France really throws into light,

02:10which is the constraints on the budgets of Western European democracies. Ukrainians,

02:16also Donald Trump, a large part of the expert community, are saying loudly and clearly and have

02:22been for years now that Europe needs to spend more money on defence, not only to help Ukraine

02:27but to stop being so dependent on the United States. But look at the situation. Countries

02:31are running deficits. When they try to pass measures that make any kinds of cuts or increase

02:36taxes, it becomes unpopular. Populist opposition parties take advantage of that. Governments become

02:41unstable. How do they imagine they're going to be able to make the kinds of increases in defence

02:47spending that experts are saying are needed? In the more immediate future, there could be

02:51some repercussions on France's contribution to aid for Ukraine. But in a way, they already knew

02:56that. The defence minister already said a couple of weeks ago that France wouldn't be able to make

03:01its target of three billion euros for Ukraine this year. But France is not a huge contributor

03:07compared to others in Europe, financially speaking. They've only contributed 3.18 billion

03:13since 2022. Germany and the Nordic countries and the United Kingdom are much more important in

03:20terms of military and financial support for Ukraine. But France was, of course, very important

03:24on the political front with Emmanuel Macron being one of the most outspoken leaders in terms of

03:30support for Ukraine after he made a sort of turn in that direction at the beginning of this year

03:35when he famously suggested that French troops as instructors could be potentially sent to Ukraine.

03:42So Ukrainians see him as being very much on their side, don't like to see him weakened,

03:46certainly wouldn't like to see him go. Although it has to be said that what he said at the time

03:52was very badly received in France and internationally. But look what's happening

03:55now. Just now, he wouldn't rule out potentially sending either instructors or peacekeeping troops

04:03to Ukraine either. Gulliver-Cragg, thank you very much indeed for joining us there live from Kyiv.

04:09Gulliver-Cragg, our Ukraine correspondent. Let's go back to Dr Marta Lorema, a lecturer in politics

04:14focusing on EU-European issues at Cardiff University. Dr Marta, we heard there from

04:20Gulliver-Cragg, our correspondent in Kyiv, about what the take is there and what's going on.

04:25This issue about how Europe can contribute towards Ukraine's fight. Clearly Macron has been

04:32a key leader in trying to push things forward, even if, as Gulliver says, France has contributed

04:37less than other countries. Yes, Emmanuel Macron has been very keen to make sure that Europe

04:45supported Ukraine and that the European Union tried to pull its weight in these terms. And again,

04:51this has kind of worked while he was still perceived as something of a leader with a

04:59stable majority. But the problem for Macron is that he has not had a stable majority in at least

05:05a year. And in the last three months, basically, in the last three months, it was very clear that

05:12the Barnier government was going to have a lot of trouble keeping any sort of control over France.

05:20The whole thing started, of course, with the European elections back in June. And from then,

05:26of course, the result for Emmanuel Macron's Centre Party was near on a humiliation in terms of

05:33how badly defeated they were and how much the French far right gained.

05:40Exactly. This political instability started very much with the EU elections this summer,

05:48when the national rally did incredibly well. And that prompted Macron to call a snap election

05:54so that they could clarify the situation and hopefully end up in a position where someone at

06:01least would have a majority. This hasn't really worked out, whereas his party previously had,

06:08if not a majority in parliament, it was still able to broadly function as a government. He

06:15no longer has that. And that really places France in a difficult position in terms of

06:20political stability. How important, Dr Marta, is Macron and France to the European project? I mean,

06:27any aspect of the European project? How important is the French voice, the French presence,

06:32the French leadership? The French leadership is really essential to the European project.

06:38We know that the European Union tends to function better when France and Germany are acting as

06:46leaders and are acting in concert. Now, of course, we are in a position where neither of these

06:51countries is able to actually provide the leadership that Europe needs. And it is not

06:56particularly clear that there is anyone else who could replace them. So we are really in

07:02uncharted territory for the European Union because it doesn't have a functioning Franco-German

07:08couple and it doesn't really have an obvious successor for that leadership. Gulliver was

07:15talking about the things that people in Ukraine are reading about and are watching on their media

07:21and talking about the situation in Georgia, the situation regarding what's happening in Romania,

07:26for instance, the ideas, the things that Russia trying to sort of influence matters. And again,

07:31most of Europe has been victim of that kind of campaign, too. Do you feel that a weakening of

07:37President Macron's situation will lead to a similar kind of weakening across the EU? I'm

07:42thinking of countries such as Hungary, where Viktor Orban is very much, you know, pro Vladimir Putin.

07:50Movements again in Central Europe along those lines. Could this open that door a little wider?

07:57This could open that door a little wider, although what we do have to remember is that people like

08:01Viktor Orban are still very much a majority amongst European leaders. So there is still a

08:07broad consensus amongst most European leaders in terms of where the EU should be going or where

08:13the European Union should stay. I think the real problem here is that the European Union right now

08:20is in a position of stall. It's in a status quo that doesn't necessarily work for what it is going

08:28to face in the coming years. So the process for European integration needs to restart in some way,

08:34but it doesn't really have the kind of leadership it needs for that. And that integration,

08:40there are many, of course, in Kiev who would want that to include Ukraine. Do you think that will

08:45happen? Not for several years, I think. In the European Union, there isn't that much appetite

08:53for a further EU enlargement. So whatever they do, they will be taking this enlargement very,

09:00very slowly. Dr Marta Larimer, lecturer in politics with a focus on the EU and European

09:06politics in general at Cardiff University there in Wales. Thank you very much for joining us.

09:11A pleasure having your analysis of the situation. Most valuable to our viewers. Dr Marta Larimer,

09:15thank you very much indeed.

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