'Search for a Goldilocks govt in a parliament of bears': Will Macron find 'new way through' impasse?

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00:00So just where, then, does France go from here?

00:05The question on the lips of the people of France

00:08after the fall of Michel Barnier's government

00:10yesterday after just a few short months.

00:13In the next hour or so, Michel Barnier

00:15is set to meet with President Emmanuel Macron, where he's

00:17expected to hand in his resignation.

00:19All the signs pointing to Macron probably announcing

00:22a new prime minister either today or in the next few days.

00:25He's understood to have already spoken

00:27to several potential candidates even before the Barnier

00:31government collapsed.

00:32We're going to cross live, then, to the Elysee Palace,

00:34talk to our senior reporter, Catherine Norris-Trent,

00:37who joins us from there.

00:38Catherine, a very chaotic 24 hours in French politics.

00:42Is it going to calm down at all now?

00:47Well, that's the big question, isn't it?

00:49Good morning to you, Stuart.

00:51Here at the Elysee Palace, we're waiting

00:53to see what the next steps are.

00:57And it could unfurl very quickly.

00:59Indeed, President Macron is hoping, he's said to allies,

01:03to name a new prime minister within 24 hours.

01:06He doesn't want this to turn even

01:09into more of an even more drawn out long political crisis

01:13than it already is.

01:15So what's going to happen here today

01:16is that the outgoing prime minister, Michel Barnier,

01:21whose government fell last night,

01:24is set to arrive here at the Elysee

01:27at around 10 AM French time, where

01:30he will hand in his resignation and that

01:33of his government, which, of course,

01:34lost that no-confidence vote in Parliament.

01:37And you know already that that's a formality.

01:40But what's going on behind the scenes

01:42is likely to tell the next chapter in French politics.

01:47Who can and will Emmanuel Macron name

01:51to be his next prime minister to replace Michel Barnier?

01:54There are quite a few names in the offing as we speak,

01:57but no confirmation.

01:59We do know that the president is due to appear

02:02on French national television news in the prime time

02:05slot at 8 PM tonight.

02:06Whether he'll be announcing a name before then

02:09or during then, what his stance is going to be,

02:11we're going to have to wait and see.

02:14Now, it's likely to be someone probably

02:16from the right or centre of French politics.

02:19It's not thought that he's going to give in

02:21to pressure from the left of the French parliament

02:24to name someone from their bloc, even though it did come out

02:26with the most votes in June snap elections.

02:30It's thought that he's likely to name an ally from the centre

02:34or the right and basically call the bluff of the national rally,

02:38saying, you've voted no confidence in my government

02:41once.

02:42You can't do it again.

02:43But again, we're going to have to wait and see.

02:45Yeah, it does seem strange, doesn't it?

02:46Because if you just name somebody from that bloc,

02:49as you say, it's just going to be more of the same.

02:51And we could be exactly back to the same situation

02:54in a month or so's time.

02:58That's correct.

02:59And whether they can get a budget

03:00through the French parliament, which the French economy

03:03desperately needs right now, its economy

03:05is in pretty dire straits, is another huge question.

03:08But you have to put into that equation the fact

03:11that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the national rally,

03:15has already voted down one government.

03:17And she is walking a very careful line this morning,

03:20Stuart, not to try and alienate some of her voters,

03:24who perhaps think it might have been irresponsible to bring

03:27down the French government at such a time

03:29when it is in financial dire straits.

03:32So will she dare do it again?

03:34That is something that perhaps Macron's new government,

03:37if he stays in place, will have in its favour.

03:41Alongside that, you've got the rumblings, though,

03:43of even people saying, look, to start afresh,

03:46to not have the same situation time and time again.

03:49Macron himself, as president, should resign.

03:52And in a recent survey, 63% of the French public

03:56said they thought Macron should go,

03:57that he's to blame for the current political crisis.

04:00No signs of that on the cards at the moment,

04:02but people are openly saying it now,

04:04especially on the hard left.

04:06Catherine, thanks very much.

04:07Catherine Norris-Trent, our senior reporter

04:09there at the Elysee Palace.

04:10We'll be back with her during the morning,

04:12particularly, of course, as there's new news to bring you.

04:15So do stay with us for that.

04:16Well, with me here on set now is historian of modern France

04:19from Queen Mary University in London, Andrew Smith.

04:22Good to have you with us, Andrew.

04:23A complete coincidence that you happen to be in Paris today.

04:25So great to see you on set.

04:28I was just saying to Catherine, I mean, what chaos?

04:30I mean, watching this as you normally do from the UK,

04:33this must seem a bit like British politics, could I say?

04:37Absolutely.

04:38It's one of these things that, you know,

04:40it was really no surprise that it happened,

04:41but it was shocking that it happened.

04:43It's been a gradual collapse.

04:44We have this, you know, sense that there

04:46is these three blocks, this tripolarity in the assembly,

04:49and there's a real need to find some kind of common ground

04:52between them.

04:53And you always see consistently is this refusal

04:56to give up, refusal to kind of really allow

04:59any kind of concession.

05:00And that's right being from day one

05:02when the new popular front put forward

05:04Izzy Gastet's, of course, and that presented very much

05:07the agenda of the left.

05:08Emmanuel Macron's president said, no,

05:09you can't rework everything that I've tried to do in the past.

05:12And so he said he won't turn to the right.

05:13And so he tried the centre.

05:15But as we've seen, it was unable to secure that support,

05:18even though it had that kind of tacit backing,

05:20as it were, from the far right.

05:22And so, yeah, it seems fairly chaotic.

05:24And really, I think the important thing

05:25is that the dissolution, the censure,

05:28the collapse of the government, it's not a solution.

05:31It's not an end in itself.

05:32It's only the start of another problem.

05:34Yeah, I mean, we would just say with Catherine,

05:36the trouble for him is that he's likely to name, actually,

05:39somebody who's probably a similar candidate to Michel

05:42Barnier.

05:42So aren't we just back in the same situation

05:44that we were before?

05:45Absolutely.

05:46I mean, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said in commentary

05:49that, well, the president could name another three

05:52Macrons every kind of three months

05:53and we'll bump through to the legislative elections.

05:56And there's a big possibility of that.

05:58Of course, we've seen some names,

05:59Sébastien Lecornu, the defence secretary.

06:01You could look at other people like François Bérue,

06:04of course, his big beast centrist ally as well.

06:07But yeah, there's really going to need

06:09to be some sort of concession.

06:12Of course, famously, it was Pierre Mendès-France

06:14that said that to govern is to choose.

06:16But to choose is not simply to magic the world up

06:19as you want it.

06:19It's to rank priorities, to give things up.

06:21And there's really a need for that kind of thing right now.

06:24And so it seems like there are two big options.

06:26One is, as you say, is to continue as is,

06:28to try this model before.

06:30We've already seen Marine Le Pen in the far right

06:32to say, actually, we may be open to crafting a budget

06:36if we have our hand on the steering wheel, as it were.

06:39This is unpalatable for the centre,

06:40especially now that they know they speak

06:42with forked tongue, as it were.

06:43However, they could look to the left as well.

06:45We know that's unlikely.

06:46We've seen that before.

06:47But there are signs coming from the Écolo,

06:49from the more centrist PS, that there is maybe

06:53some work to be done if they could reunite

06:55the Republican arc, if they could rule out

06:5849.3, that kind of government measure in Parliament.

07:01And so there's potentially something to be done there.

07:03That's much less likely, I think.

07:05And as you say, much more likely, we'll see

07:07the same song again, I think.

07:09Well, stay with us.

07:10Let's look at some of the candidates now in this report.

07:17In uncharted territory, Emmanuel Macron

07:20is under pressure to act fast.

07:22He could name a technocratic government

07:24to hold the fort until next July,

07:26when fresh elections can be held.

07:28Or he could reappoint Bernier at the helm

07:31of a caretaker government.

07:32But to move the needle at the Assembly,

07:34the president may seek new blood.

07:37The name Sébastien Lecornu has been on many lips.

07:39His political DNA is right-wing Republican,

07:42but he's served as defence minister

07:43under Michel Barnier, Gabriel Attal and Elisabeth Borne,

07:47weathering many a storm and becoming part

07:49of Macron's inner circle.

07:51But how would he break the parliamentary deadlock?

07:54Then there's Bruno Rotaillot, also from the Republican Party,

07:57appointed interior minister in September

07:59with a promise to restore order and toughen up on migration.

08:03His appointment will be a sharp right turn,

08:05but he might command the votes of those 125 national rally

08:08MPs who have held the Barnier government to ransom.

08:13François Bayrou, on the other hand,

08:14president of the democratic movement

08:16and a staunch ally of the president,

08:18has been mooted as a centrist option.

08:20But can a member of the presidential coalition

08:22shift the balance in parliament?

08:24Or might Emmanuel Macron look left,

08:26former socialist Bernard Cazeneuve is in the mix,

08:29a man who quit the party immediately

08:30when united with other left-wing forces for the 2022 elections

08:34and who denounced the formation of the New Popular Front

08:36coalition this year, a shift right that

08:39cost him the support of left-wing lawmakers.

08:42Lucie Castille, who was the New Popular Front pick

08:44over the summer, stands, in her own words, ready to govern.

08:47But the president didn't entertain the idea for long

08:50even then.

08:51Emmanuel Macron held nearly two months of talks this summer

08:54before appointing a prime minister,

08:56but an overturned government must leave

08:58and France expects a budget by the end of the year.

09:02Yandere, it's strange watching those names go through

09:04because you look at each name and you think,

09:06whichever one he picks, it's going to annoy two thirds

09:09of the parliament, isn't it?

09:11Yeah, it's the search for a Goldilocks government

09:13in a parliament of bears.

09:14There is not much in terms of viable options.

09:18And so it's a real challenge.

09:21The creativity may be to look left.

09:23It might be to try something new.

09:25We know that when Macron didn't appoint Lucie Castille,

09:27he said it would be a government that would fall instantly.

09:30Well, what's to lose except that record

09:32for how long it lasts?

09:34So there's something, there's an option there to try.

09:37It would make sense as well to go back

09:39to that same government, that same coalition effectively

09:42in trying an old hand.

09:44You mentioned Bruno Retailleau there.

09:46His politics looked maybe palatable

09:48to some on the far right.

09:49Maybe they might get some support there.

09:51But if anything, I think the far right have shown,

09:54they've tried, they were encouraged after the vote

09:57not to applaud, not to seem triumphalist,

09:59not to seem like they'd won anything.

10:01To try and present it as a kind of justifiable motion,

10:03this long attempt to seem reasonable.

10:06But I think what they've shown again

10:07is that they are not actors that can be dealt with,

10:09that can be trusted, that can work with in parliament.

10:11And actually one of the reasons the Barnier government fell

10:14is because of that reliance on the extreme right.

10:16And I think that's really got to be a message to Macron

10:18and that this cannot be a coalition that works.

10:21It's never going to find its own kind of,

10:24its own little notch in parliament.

10:27It can't work like that, I think.

10:28There's one other big elephant in the room, if you like.

10:31What does all this mean for Emmanuel Macron?

10:33I mean, what he did in the summer

10:35obviously doesn't seem to have worked.

10:37And a lot of people say it's been a disaster

10:39for him and for his party.

10:41But also, does it mean he has to go?

10:43Well, I think, first of all,

10:44it doesn't mean he has to go for sure.

10:46There is no constitutional imperative that says,

10:48all of a sudden, the president has to pack his bags.

10:51Of course, because the last time the government fell,

10:53we had in 1962, that was, of course,

10:56when the referendum to secure the direct election

10:57of the presidency took place.

10:59And so that means that there is this kind of direct channel,

11:01this direct connection.

11:02He has been elected.

11:03He's still within his mandate.

11:04He can weather this out.

11:06He may not want to, but he has essentially,

11:09he's exhausted his main kind of weapon

11:12in his arsenal at the minute, the dissolution.

11:14We can't have another one of those

11:15until another election in June, July.

11:17We can't see that coming out.

11:19So it's really got to be something

11:20that finds a way around this,

11:22whether it be, again, some kind of technocratic measure

11:24in the meantime, whether it be a new,

11:26reliable government that works,

11:27or something like that as well.

11:29For Macron, it is damaging,

11:31but he will seek to present this as blockages in parliament

11:34and try consistently to present himself

11:36as the person that can find a way through those blockages.

11:38We know on the plane back from Saudi Arabia,

11:40he talked about his success in Notre Dame,

11:42his success with the Olympics.

11:43Domestic politics, that's a problem with the assembly.

11:46And I think that's how he's going to try

11:47and run it here as well.

11:48He needs a prime minister who can command a majority.

11:51The Fed Republic, we talk about its structures,

11:53but ultimately, what is it?

11:54It's 289 MPs, it's a majority,

11:57but we've actually demolished, he's demolished,

11:59the PS and the LR's grip on those majorities.

12:02And so now, it's a challenging situation for him

12:05to find that new way through this blockage.

12:09Andrew Smith, great to have you with us here on set

12:11from, he's a historian of modern France

12:13from Queen Mary University in London.

12:16Well, of course, it's also a bit of a headache

12:18for Europe as well.

12:19A little earlier, we spoke to our correspondent

12:21in Brussels, Dave Keating.

12:24This is very scary for the EU,

12:26because now you have both France and Germany

12:30in this period of rudderless leadership,

12:33political chaos we have in Germany.

12:35They've really kind of been absent from the EU stage

12:37for a long time under the leadership of Olaf Scholz

12:40over the past three years,

12:41and now he's been forced to call a snap election in February.

12:45And so with that uncertainty in the EU's two main countries,

12:49the Franco-German motor, as it's called,

12:51this does not put the EU as a whole

12:53in a very strong position.

12:54Separately, you also have the economic concerns.

12:57So this political chaos has actually forced markets

13:00to downgrade France's bonds down to Greek levels

13:05because of the chaos that's happening.

13:07And that, of course, is spurring concerns

13:09over a new Eurozone crisis

13:12because of France's very, very high deficits,

13:15about 6% of GDP, extremely high.

13:19The European Commission put France

13:20under an excessive deficit procedure earlier this year.

13:23In a way, that's what kind of sparked this crisis

13:26because Barnier's budget had to respond to that procedure.

13:29It had to address the commission's concerns

13:32about the French deficit,

13:33but the measures that he was taking

13:36to address those concerns were deeply unpopular

13:39with the far left and the far right,

13:40and that's why we've seen what happened last night.

13:44The issue is whoever replaces him

13:47is probably not going to be able

13:48to put in the kinds of budget reforms

13:50that are now required by the EU.

13:53So how does the EU respond to that?

13:55It's a very delicate situation,

13:57and it's worth pointing out that this is why

13:58the commission delayed putting France

14:00under this excessive deficit procedure for so long.

14:03France often gets different standards applied to France

14:07than are applied to other countries because it's France,

14:09because it's such a big, important country,

14:11and this is an example why.

14:13The commission doesn't want to be seen

14:15as causing this political chaos in France,

14:18as causing these cuts to Social Security,

14:19cuts to pensions, changes to pension rules.

14:22So it's going to be a delicate dance for the commission

14:25over the coming month as it responds to this.

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