'Twilight' of his presidency: 'Macron has painted himself into a corner from which he can't escape'

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00:00Well, we'll start here in France, where Jordan Bardella, the president of the far-right National

00:10Rally Party, says the party will back a no-confidence motion against the government in the coming

00:15days unless there is a, quote, last-minute miracle.

00:19Bardella's mentor, Marine Le Pen, has given the prime minister, Michel Barnier, a deadline

00:23of today to yield to the far-right's budget demands or face that vote that would very

00:28likely lead to the government's collapse.

00:31Barnier is proposing cutbacks and other tough new measures to finance the country's social

00:36security program.

00:37Here's more from the far-right president speaking this morning.

00:45The budget put forward by the government is a punishing budget that will slow down our

00:48country's economy.

00:50We tried up to the last minute to propose common-sense measures for the state's budget.

00:55The minister spoke yesterday, indicating that the government didn't want to budge.

00:59Insofar as Michel Barnier continues with Emmanuel Macron's policy, the Rassemblement National

01:05will, of course, back a no-confidence motion unless there is a last-minute miracle and

01:10Michel Barnier decides to revise his copy before 3 p.m.

01:14But I don't expect him to be touched by grace since we've been ignored and scorned for months.

01:24Our Clovis Casale is following the latest developments at the National Assembly in

01:28Paris and joins me now live from there.

01:30Clovis, this standoff could come to a head today if the Prime Minister uses this constitutional

01:35power, this 49.3 sometime today.

01:38But what's been happening so far this Monday?

01:40Do we have any more idea of how things could go today?

01:44A great deal of uncertainty ahead of this crucial parliamentary session.

01:49The French government fighting for its survival and ahead of this session, Prime Minister

01:55Michel Barnier has a meeting with all of his allies from the various parties who are supporting

02:02him, presumably to assess the situation, to look at possibilities, and I can tell you

02:06the possibilities are not looking good for the French government.

02:10Why?

02:11Because this budget on social security, well, the opposition, the left-wing bloc and the

02:17far right are fiercely opposed to it.

02:19They won't vote in favour of this budget.

02:22And then if Michel Barnier, the Prime Minister, uses Article 49.3, so passes the law without

02:29a vote by decree, well, the French far right and the left-wing bloc have vowed to file

02:36a motion of no confidence and that would topple the French government for sure.

02:43And then now the socialists have filed a motion of rejection.

02:47That will be studied, looked at before the vote on the budget, and if it's adopted, if

02:53it's voted in, well, that would give a few more days, a bit more time for the French

02:59government to negotiate over this budget on social security, but it's difficult to imagine

03:04the far left and the far right agreeing, voting for this motion of rejection.

03:10You heard the president of the French far right party, the National Rally, Jordan Bardella,

03:15saying this government hasn't been listening to us.

03:19It's got austerity measures in its budget and that's unacceptable for us.

03:24On the other hand, you've got the French Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, saying we did all

03:27we could to try to please everyone, but we can't spend more.

03:31The situation of France is critical and there's an urgent need to reduce public spending and

03:38that's what Michel Barnier is doing.

03:40So a lot of uncertainty today.

03:42We'll have to wait and see exactly what is decided, what is voted, and if Michel Barnier

03:48decides to trigger Article 49.3.

03:50Clovis, thank you for that.

03:52That's France 24's Clovis Casali at the National Assembly.

03:55We're going to get a bit more analysis now with French politics expert Paul Smith, who

03:59joins me from the University of Nottingham.

04:01Paul, always great to have you on the show.

04:03Thank you so much.

04:04As Clovis was saying, you know, this standoff could come to a head if the prime minister

04:08uses this aggressive constitutional quirk, if you would like to call it that, this 49.3.

04:16What exactly is that and how does it work?

04:19OK, well, if he wants to use 49.3, then what then happens is that the budget is adopted

04:26unless the opposition table a motion of censure, the equivalent of a motion of no confidence,

04:33and then that would be debated and voted on in 48 hours time.

04:37So we wouldn't actually have a final decision on that until Wednesday because the government,

04:42the constitution, has built in a kind of cooling off period.

04:46And then the government would only fall if there's an absolute majority, so 289 deputies

04:52vote in favour of the motion of no confidence.

04:55But if the government lose, Article 50 is very clear, the government has to resign.

05:00So we're waiting to see what happens today, but also how it plays out come Wednesday if

05:06we get a 49.3 today.

05:08So you've been watching French politics for a long time.

05:11What are your thoughts?

05:12How is this going to play out over the next few days?

05:15I think it's incredibly complicated.

05:16It's very interesting.

05:17Clovis was telling us there about the motion de rejet, the rejecting motion, which actually

05:23kind of buys the government a few more days.

05:25It's quite interesting that the socialists have tabled that.

05:28It's not absolutely clear to me.

05:29I'd need to think a bit more about what it is the socialists are trying to do if they

05:33really think that they're going to negotiate some kind of concessions from Barnier.

05:38Barnier hasn't talked about concessions, so perhaps he's willing to take on the left.

05:43I mean, it's the left that have tabled the motion of censure.

05:46It's really the far right, the Rassemblement National and their allies, however, that are

05:50talking about voting with the left and therefore creating a crisis where France would probably

05:56find itself in a situation of no government.

06:00I think Barnier is trying to put the pressure on to Le Pen and see if she really wants to

06:05create a very serious political crisis.

06:08Right.

06:09Because just to remind everyone, if the government were to collapse, I mean, we can't call legislative

06:13elections for another year.

06:15So in that interim time, what would happen?

06:17It would just be a stalemate.

06:18I mean, who would run the country?

06:19Well, there are lots of different possibilities.

06:23It could be that Barnier would have to resign.

06:27He'd have to stand down.

06:30He can't be kept on as caretaker indefinitely.

06:32So at some point, Macron would have to think about appointing a new ministry.

06:37And that there are kind of, you know, sort of fantasy football league people talking

06:41about a government of the centre-left to centre-right.

06:45That is pure fantasy.

06:47But the possibility of what's called a technical ministry, so members of government who would

06:52run, the ministers who would run the state until, say, next summer with no really significant

06:59they can't make proposals because they don't really have a majority to get any laws through.

07:03But they would also activate, there are articles within the constitution that would allow them

07:07to activate bills that would keep the budget running, at least perpetuate this year's budget

07:13so that you wouldn't actually have a shutdown of the French state.

07:17But there are other more extreme, there's a nuclear option, which is that Macron might

07:22even choose to activate Article 16, which would be emergency, which is an emergency law.

07:29That seems unlikely because it really is the nuclear option.

07:33There are one or two other options outside of the constitution, organic laws relating

07:37to budget and finance bills.

07:40But it is a very complicated situation through which all the players have got to try and

07:45navigate over the next three, few days.

07:47Right.

07:48And it really is complicated because, of course, here, you know, you have strangely the far

07:51right saying, no, we need more government, more protection.

07:55Don't go cutting our rights.

07:56You have Barnier saying, well, no, we're not going to survive economically if we don't cut.

08:00I mean, who is right, in your opinion?

08:03Well, I think Barnier is right in the sense that they have to be cuts.

08:06But to my mind, the far right, the Le Pen, is really provoking a crisis in order to kind

08:14of divert attention.

08:17It's a very dangerous.

08:18I mean, the left are doing what the left have to do.

08:20The left really don't support austerity and that's that's where you would expect them

08:23to be.

08:24I don't think the, you know, the National Front, sorry, the National Rally operate with

08:28a great deal of bad faith that actually their policies always favor business.

08:32They're not in favor of the of the little man and the little woman in terms of their

08:38pension rights.

08:39But that's the card that they can play at the moment because it's easy and it costs

08:44them nothing in terms of finance because they're not in government.

08:49So it's the easy option for the far right.

08:51And it allows them, as I say, to deflect attention from their own problems in the courts.

08:56Right.

08:57And I mean, this could have very long term effects.

09:00I mean, the prospect of a government collapse already sent French borrowing costs soaring

09:04last week.

09:05I mean, how bad could this make things?

09:07I think it could make things very bad for the French government.

09:09You know, France, heavens above, this is a really serious country.

09:14This is this is, you know, the fourth, fifth, sixth largest, depending on whose figures

09:18you believe, biggest economy in the world.

09:21It's a very serious player in Europe.

09:23And suddenly everything's everything's collapsing.

09:26The again, you know, the far the far right has to think very seriously about the consequences

09:32of this and the and how that would play out if it has big a big impact on the French economy

09:39and French French finances.

09:41And Le Pen has to has to think very long and hard about the implications that might

09:46have if we go into a period of technical government and then we have an election come the summer

09:53of next year.

09:55So she has to think very one hopes that she thought long and hard about about the outcome

09:59there.

10:00Right.

10:01Because we have to just remind everyone Marine Le Pen currently has her own legal problem.

10:03She's being tried for embezzling funds from the EU to pay for her own staff here at France.

10:09And what she's really risking right now is is not being eligible to run for president.

10:14I mean, you sort of mentioned this earlier, but I'm just curious to know how much all

10:17of this, in your opinion, is just smoke and mirrors to try and divert attention from her

10:21own judicial problems.

10:22I think there's a great deal of that smoke and mirrors.

10:25I think she's in a position where she she wants to kind of play the the kingmaker and

10:30the king unmaker.

10:31I mean, she was already the kingmaker in a sense when Barnier was appointed, that it

10:36was the attitude of the of the Rassemblement Nationale.

10:39But she allows Barnier to become prime minister in the first place.

10:44I think she thinks that she has nothing to lose from parliamentary chaos, which isn't

10:51actually in some ways the real chaos that is coming from the left is very interesting

10:55reporting today's Le Monde about the lack of confidence that the French are now feeling

10:59in the political system.

11:01And they feel actually that it's the far left that is causing most of this problem.

11:05But she will feel that she has a great deal to to to to gain from that.

11:10So it's partly smoke and mirrors on her part, but partly the idea that she can can benefit

11:16from this this chaotic situation.

11:18Paul, just to wrap up, I mean, what's the risk for Emmanuel Macron, the president in

11:23all of this?

11:24Or is he just sitting in the Elysee Palace, just kind of watching and waiting to see how

11:27this all shakes out?

11:28Well, I think we're into again, he's into this kind of this kind of dusk kind of presidency,

11:36the crepuscule, as the French might say, that he's played himself into a corner.

11:41He's painted himself well and truly into that corner from which he he can't escape.

11:45It's very much his fault for calling the dissolution in the first place.

11:48I mean, everything goes back to the evening of June the 9th.

11:52And, you know, it could be he does have a responsibility, Macron.

11:57Under Article five of the Constitution to ensure the regular running of le pouvoir public,

12:03of institutions, the institutions of the republic.

12:06So the big question could be at what point he he comes under scrutiny again for that.

12:13We know that the left have in the past talked about moving some kind of impeachment procedure

12:18against him.

12:19It's unlikely that that would succeed.

12:21But there are some big question marks still to be raised about his his presidency and

12:26just exactly what how he thinks he would be able to perform without a government.

12:31Paul, thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us as always.

12:35That's Paul Smith.

12:36Thank you so much.

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