No-confidence vote 'putting France in a very difficult position for political reasons'

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00:00Well, we're joined now by a French MP for the party of the President,

00:03Eleanor Carrois.

00:04Thanks so much for coming in and giving us your time.

00:06I guess we should start with this motion of no confidence.

00:09Do you feel it's going to go through this evening?

00:12Well, I don't have a crystal ball, but based on what the parties

00:16that opposed these motions are saying, yeah, mathematically,

00:19it seems like it's going to go through.

00:21And then what happens?

00:22I mean, then Michel Barnier, he's gone as prime minister.

00:25It took quite a while to find him to be the prime minister.

00:27The Assembly, a very divided one.

00:29Yeah. And, you know, for me, the most important issue is not that much

00:33that the government will be turned down, because that's something

00:36that could have happened anyways when you have such a divided Assembly,

00:40but is that we are not going to have a budget voted by the end of the year.

00:44In the best scenario, we'll have the budget from last year apply,

00:48which means mechanically that about 400,000

00:52French people will pay taxes when they didn't before.

00:55And another 17 million will have their taxes increased.

00:58And these are only two examples of what would happen

01:01if we don't have a proper budget.

01:03So that's what worries me the most at this stage.

01:05Definitely. And the financial turmoil we've seen already even impact

01:09on the wider market and the euro.

01:11But this budget, it was pushed through by force, clear opposition

01:15from the parliament.

01:16They were elected by the people.

01:18You know, Michel Barnier doesn't come from either side of

01:21neither the biggest group, which is the alliance of left wing parties

01:24or the biggest party, the far right.

01:26Yeah, and his legitimacy was based on his capacity to build a compromise.

01:30And what he did in this budget, and I'm not going to defend that budget

01:33because there are several things in that budget that I totally disagree with.

01:37But what he did, and you have to give him that, is that he took proposals,

01:40the most important proposals from the different groups,

01:43and he tried to make a compromised budget, bearing into account

01:47that we're in a very constrained environment and we need to reduce our debt.

01:50So it wasn't perfect at all, but it was something

01:53and it was negotiated and discussed with several groups.

01:55So the fact that they turned around so quickly and so unexpectedly,

02:00I think also shows that this was a very political move in the sense,

02:04you know, and not in the good sense, and that it is actually putting France

02:08into a very difficult position for politician reasons.

02:12Indeed, and as you're saying, time tied on getting a budget in place.

02:16There had been pressure on France, even from outside, to do so.

02:19But without a prime minister, we're not going to have the next budget.

02:23So the first question, I imagine, is who can take over as prime minister?

02:27Does it need to go back to the biggest parts of Parliament?

02:31Well, that's funny, because everyone is asking that very question.

02:34And I think that's the question we asked ourselves six months ago.

02:37And it isn't the question we should be asking ourselves now.

02:39We should be asking ourselves the question of what project

02:42are we going to be able to build?

02:43What coalition, so to speak, before thinking about a name

02:47with an assembly that is so divided?

02:49We have 11 groups. We've never had that many.

02:52They're not talking to each other.

02:53They have different views.

02:55Even the blocs, they talk about three blocs.

02:56That's nonsense.

02:57Within those blocs, there's so many differences.

02:59So you have to find a way.

03:00And finding a way, in my opinion, means discussing,

03:04you know, the priorities of every single representative,

03:07because we've all been elected legitimately

03:09and then trying to find something that works.

03:12And then you'll find the providential men or women.

03:15Indeed, because other countries, I mean, it's true that like

03:17the Netherlands often has a myriad of parties.

03:20It's quite a new thing for France, I guess, to have so many parties

03:23in Parliament, but we can't hold new elections here in France.

03:27And as you say, we're all legitimately elected.

03:29So technically, how is it going to move forward

03:31if this vote on real confidence goes through,

03:33if we don't have a government by the end of the week?

03:36Where do you think the push is going to come to bring all these

03:38dividing sides together for France?

03:40You know, the time is not for optimism, but I can't help myself

03:44to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

03:46We're learning the hard way to do what other countries,

03:48as you rightly say, do all the time.

03:50You were inventing parliamentarism the French way.

03:53And the truth of the matter is we've never done this

03:55because we've always had a clear majority and a clear position,

03:58a very binary system, as you'd have in the UK or in the US.

04:02But the truth is we don't have that and we can't have other elections.

04:06And in any event, you'd have elections.

04:07You'd really have this.

04:09I think you'd have the same results.

04:10So it is a matter of sitting together and making compromises.

04:14And obviously, everyone is blaming the other party,

04:17but you have to point out clearly that a party like the Socialist Party

04:21that has been in government, that is, you know, it's part of a bloc

04:26that is reasonable, I would say, is not in the extreme populist party,

04:30is not being helpful and is not cooperating, because if they were,

04:34we wouldn't be depending upon the national rally

04:37and we wouldn't be in the situation we're in right now.

04:39A lot of people are also blaming

04:42not just the party of the president to which you belong,

04:43but the president himself who called these snap elections.

04:46And, you know, we're hearing calls over his position.

04:49Should that be called into the question?

04:50You know that it's his decision that got us to where he is, where we are today.

04:55Well, what that shows is that, in fact, the reason we're here today

04:59is not because the parties are so unhappy with the budget,

05:01which is a compromised budget again,

05:03but it is because you have two important figures in France's political scene,

05:08which are Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

05:10They've both been candidates to the presidential election several times.

05:13And they both think that today, you know, pushing it a bit further,

05:17creating a bit of chaos,

05:18they're going to be next to each other in a couple of months.

05:20And the reason why it's so important to them, for Marine Le Pen,

05:23is because she has a judicial, you know, verdict coming up

05:27that might render her ineligible, which to her would be a disaster.

05:30I mean, she's been waiting for this all her life.

05:32And for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, he's not getting younger.

05:34And he's also hoping to be facing Marine Le Pen.

05:37So they're both playing it very personally

05:39and not looking into the interests of France.

05:41And they're both hoping that Emmanuel Macron will eventually leave.

05:44But I think that would be a disaster, obviously, for a country.

05:47OK, well, time will have to tell where that compromise will come from.

05:51Eleanor Carroix, thanks so much for coming in

05:53and giving us your expertise on the situation. Thank you.

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