'Extremely volatile': Far-right 'king-maker' as Macron sidelines election victor 'republican front'

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00:00That's how France is best known as the man who united the EU over the thorny issue of

00:06Brexit, negotiating a deal on behalf of Brussels.

00:10The question now is whether Michel Barnier can help unite a divided France.

00:15After months of political stalemate, President Macron has nominated the 73-year-old four-time

00:20minister as head of government.

00:23Barnier took on the role from the outgoing Gabrielle Attal at a handover ceremony this

00:27evening.

00:28Here's some of what the new premier had to say.

00:35In a few days' time, in just a few weeks' time, I will have the opportunity to speak

00:42before Parliament about the major legislative priorities and proposals on behalf of the

00:47new government.

00:49It will be a question of responding as best as we can to the challenges, the anger, the

00:55shortcomings, the feeling of abandonment, of injustice that permeates far too many of

01:01our towns, our neighbourhoods and our countryside.

01:06I'm thinking, ladies and gentlemen, of access to public services and schools will remain

01:11the government's priority, the schools of the republic.

01:16I'm thinking about day-to-day security.

01:19I'm also thinking about controlling immigration.

01:22I'm obviously thinking about work and the standard of living of the French people.

01:32Among the immediate tasks for Barnier, naming a new cabinet, preparing budget legislation

01:38and garnering enough support from a divided Parliament to avoid a possible vote of no

01:42confidence.

01:43Well, to discuss this and more, we're joined now by Ariane Beauguin.

01:46She's a professor of French politics at Northumbria University.

01:51Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Andrea.

01:54Firstly, what do you make of the choice of Michel Barnier for Prime Minister?

01:58He will be rather well known to viewers there in the UK.

02:03In the UK, yes, he is known as Mr Brexit and I don't think I'm going to exaggerate to say

02:11that he's loathed by some section of the British press, the more Brexiting press.

02:18I think he's probably more known in the UK than in France, even though he has had a long

02:24political career, but he's been quite in the shadow for the past few years, but he's definitely

02:31known in the UK.

02:32Yes, and we all remember that very first meeting between him and Davis when the British Brexit

02:43secretary who went to the first meeting with nothing in his hands, whereas Barnier was

02:48well prepared with a stack of files.

02:51And among the most pressing challenges that he faces will be garnering support, really,

02:55in the National Assembly.

02:58Will he manage to unite French deputies, do you think, particularly those on the left?

03:02They've already been very critical of this decision by President Macron.

03:06Yeah, I think we have to realise that today we have to hope.

03:11We don't know who is, to do what and how long it will last.

03:16So, you know, people outside of France shouldn't think that that's it, you know, France has

03:22now a prime minister, you know, business as usual will resume.

03:27No, no, no, no.

03:28This is only the beginning.

03:30What we know from today is that for now he's safe because the only bloc that said they

03:36would vote him out in a vote of no confidence is the left bloc.

03:41On their own, they can't vote him out.

03:43But the national rally, the far right has said, for now, we are not going to vote him

03:50out.

03:51We are waiting to see what he's going to say when he talks to Parliament.

03:54So there is always the possibility that as soon as October, he might be voted out.

04:01So it's very, very fragile.

04:03It's just the beginning of a very long and bumpy road.

04:08And no one really can say what's going to happen.

04:12It might last until next July when a new dissolution can be done, or it might be gone mid-October.

04:22So it's extremely volatile.

04:23We have a name, which is better than we had, you know, for the last 60 days.

04:29And do you think that he has perhaps Marine Le Pen to thank for his nomination?

04:33She seems to have played really the kingmaker role here, doesn't she?

04:36Yeah, she is.

04:37And that is very problematic, really, in terms of how representative of the results Barnier

04:46is.

04:47Because, if we remember, the winner of the election in July was the anti-far right Republican

04:55Front.

04:56And we now have a lot of MPs who are going, who were elected thanks to this Republican

05:03Front, who are now going to support a government that is kept alive by the very same far right.

05:11So the far right has become the kingmaker.

05:14Yes, they basically wield the power to, you know, the power of life and death, really,

05:21over this government.

05:22But obviously, this is today.

05:25We don't know who will be in the cabinet.

05:28We don't know if he's going to try and succeed to maybe widening it to the left.

05:34So the situation might be different in a week's time or in two weeks' time.

05:38But right now, today, yes, the far right is indeed a kingmaker.

05:42And what about Emmanuel Macron's position?

05:45He's faced a lot of criticism for dismissing the change that voters had hoped for.

05:50Yes.

05:51I mean, you know, I was expecting a prime minister from the left, not necessarily from

06:00the parliamentary, from the left currently in parliament, but from the broader left,

06:04to reflect the fact that, A, the left bloc is the largest bloc in terms of seats.

06:10They don't have the absolute majority, but they are the largest.

06:14And also to reflect the fact, to reflect a break in policies, because we have to remember

06:20that Macron's party was heavily defeated in the European election and then in the parliamentary

06:27election.

06:28Now, we can get, we could delve into the reasons why the left was not appointed.

06:34Basically, they didn't have the numbers to survive.

06:37But it will, you know, it is difficult, I think, for many voters to comprehend why Barnier,

06:45who is from one of the smallest party in French parliament, is the new prime minister,

06:51when the largest is nowhere near government.

06:55In other countries, more used to a proportional system, it might be common.

07:01But this is new to France, and I'm not sure yet how voters are going to react.

07:06And even Barnier himself, he's been critical of Macron in the past.

07:09He's described him as arrogant, solitary, and he was critical of his decision very recently

07:15to dissolve parliament.

07:16So what kind of relationship do you think the two men are going to have going forward?

07:20I wish I knew.

07:23I mean, in theory, it should be a kind of cohabitation, but not the same that we had

07:29in the past, when it was very clear that, you know, you had an absolute majority for

07:34another side.

07:35He is from the right.

07:37In terms of policy, I think we can expect similar policies to Macron.

07:41So I don't think there would be too many problems there, for example, not to get rid

07:50of the pension reform or on immigration.

07:53In terms of interpersonal relationship, I generally don't know.

07:57But I think what Macron really should do is take a step back, you know, focus on foreign

08:05affairs or, you know, diplomacy and see what, if Barnier can widen, you know, his support

08:15and see what happens.

08:16But, you know, at this, it's really too early to say what exactly is going to happen between

08:22Barnier and Macron.

08:23It will be very interesting to watch how it all plays out.

08:26Ariane, we'll have to leave it there for now.

08:28But thank you so much for joining us this evening.

08:30That's Ariane Beaucamp, professor of French politics at Northumbria University.

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