Barnier govt on chopping block: 'Very surprising alliance between left-wing coalition and far right'

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00Well, France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who's Jordan Bardella's mentor, has not

00:04been afraid to play hardball with the prime minister during the divisive budget negotiations.

00:10But she is also currently tied up in a high-profile embezzlement trial that could keep her from

00:14participating in France's next presidential election.

00:18Eliezer Gadeva and Morgan Ayer take a closer look now at what Le Pen is hoping to get out

00:23of this week's political chaos.

00:26For months, the electorate of the right-wing National Rally Party has been rooting for

00:30the fall of Michel Barnier's government.

00:32For some voters, Le Pen's move to back a no-confidence vote was necessary.

00:39Something had to be done.

00:40She did it, and that's great.

00:41For me, it's a good thing.

00:44She didn't start a mess.

00:45She did like everyone.

00:46She expressed her opinion and her ideas.

00:49But others are less convinced.

00:52In my opinion, we've already gained a lot.

00:54Maybe we should have stopped there.

00:57Marine Le Pen says she was acting against a dangerous, unjust and punitive budget when

01:01she refused to back the prime minister's social security budget over the weekend.

01:06But poll watchers say that's only the tip of the iceberg.

01:10Over the weekend, the National Rally tried to negotiate a pension increase in line with

01:14inflation.

01:16Experts see the move as an electoral tactic.

01:19Le Pen's goal?

01:20To attract the pensioners who have historically shunned the far right.

01:23She wants to show that even though other political parties didn't fight against the new pension

01:28reform until the end, she did.

01:30She's going ahead with a no-confidence vote just to protect the retirees.

01:34So her message is fundamentally pointed towards her electorate.

01:39Legal troubles are also weighing over Marine Le Pen.

01:42For opponents, her trial for allegedly embezzling EU parliament funds pushed her to spark the

01:47political crisis.

01:49The case could see her banned from running for public office.

01:52If Barnier's government falls, President Emmanuel Macron could also resign, opening

01:57up a fresh campaign for Marine Le Pen.

02:00We're going to get more analysis now about this with French politics expert Anna McKeever

02:06who joins me live.

02:07Anna, thanks for taking the time to speak to us today on France 24.

02:11I mean, what are your thoughts about Marine Le Pen's strategy here?

02:14How much is this about her pushing the far right's agenda and how much is it just her

02:19trying to have a distraction from her own legal troubles?

02:22Hi.

02:23So, yeah, I do think that's partially having a distraction from what's happening with the

02:29affair with the parliamentary assistance and the embezzlement of funds.

02:33I also think that she's trying to push the agenda of the national rally about, you know,

02:38protecting the senior citizens.

02:40But it's quite a risky strategy that Marine Le Pen has pursued because, as we've seen

02:44in summer, she actually managed to stay away from this kind of coalition formation chaos

02:50that happened.

02:51And she eventually agreed on the Barnier government, you know, she gave her green light.

02:57But what we're seeing now is that, you know, it might actually backfire on her because

03:05essentially if Rassemblement National will support the vote of no confidence initiated

03:10by the left-wing alliance, Rassemblement National will also be kind of held accountable

03:17for the future political instability and political deadlock that France is going to experience

03:23in that case.

03:24Because essentially they will help to topple the government and there will be the need

03:29for the new prime minister.

03:31And we know that it's going to be very difficult for Emmanuel Macron to name a prime minister

03:36who is going to resonate with left-wing and right-wing blocs within the National Assembly.

03:42And the future prime minister, like the current one, will still have a weak electoral legitimacy.

03:47So it's going to be very difficult for a new prime minister to find a compromise.

03:52And senior citizens, as much as they care about the retirement, you know, and their

03:56pensions, what Marine Le Pen is trying to advocate, they also are very conservative

04:02in nature.

04:03And they very much, you know, try to protect the status quo and prevent further political

04:07instability.

04:09So her decision to support the vote of no confidence may actually backfire on her because

04:14the kind of senior citizens, they fear this fear of the unknown is actually what kept

04:22them away from supporting Marine Le Pen previously.

04:25So they like this political stability and her support in the no confidence vote will

04:30actually trigger further political deadlock and lead to political instability.

04:35So it might not actually, you know, play out in her favor.

04:39And what's so interesting here is here you really have this unlikely alliance between

04:42the far right and the left who are so against this budget.

04:46I mean, I understand the politics of why they're against this budget, but I mean, deep down

04:50there is an economic crisis.

04:51And I find it so surprising that some politicians don't seem to want to admit that the deficit

04:56is as bad as it is, or perhaps this is a way to get France out of its bad space.

05:02I mean, what do you think is keeping them from recognizing the economic difficulties

05:05of the country?

05:07Well, I think the decision of Emmanuel Macron also to stay in power and not to resign is

05:14important because you see if his government and the coalition of parties that are within

05:22his government are going to recognize that, that will mean that, you know, there'll be

05:26more calls for Macron to resign.

05:29And he already said that he is not going to do that.

05:32So the recognition of these difficulties that, you know, France's economy is facing will

05:37be a, you know, blow to Emmanuel Macron and eventually, you know, there will be more calls

05:42for his resignation.

05:44So they don't want to do that and they don't want to recognize that.

05:47And of course, you're absolutely right that it is a very surprising alliance between the

05:51left wing coalition and the national rally.

05:55But I think, you know, in this case, you know, national rally might be quite, you know, damaged

06:03if they will, electorally damaged in the future if they support the vote of no confidence.

06:09So for you, is it a done deal or not a done deal that Michel Barnier will get voted out

06:13tonight?

06:14I mean, from what we have seen yesterday and today, there are still confirmations that

06:20Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National are going to support the vote of no confidence.

06:25I mean, anything can happen in the future.

06:28But if that happens, the new government will need to be formed.

06:31And we know from the previous experience in summer that whoever Emmanuel Macron is going

06:37to name as a future prime minister will be in a very difficult position.

06:40It will take weeks, if not months, to form a new government.

06:44So the current government will still need to continue with managing the current affairs.

06:49And it will still be problematic.

06:51So for me, I mean, it's difficult to say what we what we can see, what Marine Le Pen has

06:56said that, yeah, they will go ahead with that.

06:59And I think, you know, all the parties are already sort of in electoral campaign mode

07:04for the future elections that are probably come in summer.

07:09But yeah, I think I think the current prime minister will go.

07:13Yeah.

07:14Is it too early to start talking about possible new prime ministers?

07:18I mean, we heard earlier today the name of François Bayrou, a centrist politician, being

07:22thrown out there already.

07:23I mean, can we go down those roads already or is it too soon?

07:27I think it's too soon because we've seen what has happened a couple of months ago.

07:32There were different names thrown on the table, you know, and the Michel Barnier appointment

07:37was very surprising for a lot of people.

07:40It was it kind of came out of the blue.

07:42So I don't think we can really speculate on the centrist François Bayrou and, you know,

07:48him as a potential new prime minister.

07:50But definitely Emmanuel Macron, whoever he's going to appoint, I do think because the new

07:56prime minister is going to have a weak electoral legitimacy.

07:58It's not going to be a prime minister, probably from the left wing camp.

08:02Very unlikely.

08:03You know, it's either somebody centrist or right wing.

08:05And again, it's going to be the same situation repeating with like with the Michel Barnier

08:10government.

08:11All right.

08:12In any case, it will be a very interesting situation if it does come out that way, that

08:15the Barnier government does get voted out.

08:16It'll be the first time, I believe, since the 1960s since it's happened.

08:19Anna McKeever, thanks so much for taking the time to speak to us.

08:22Of course, we will be staying on top of this story for you throughout the day here on France

08:2524.

Category

Transcript

Recommended