Far right's 'shadow everywhere': 'French PM's only hope is to keep far right happy and on-board'

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00:00We're going to talk more about the Prime Minister's speech now with French politics expert Renaud

00:04Foucault, who joins me live. Renaud, let's start with what Clovis was just saying there at the end

00:09a moment ago. How big do you think the shadow of the far right is really hanging

00:13over the speech from the Prime Minister today?

00:16The shadow is everywhere. So last week has been mostly placating far right ideas with the

00:22Interior Minister Bruno Rotailleau trying to tell the far right, look, we're on your side. So there

00:27have been a lot of populist vibes about migrants, cutting emergency medical aid for migrants,

00:34the rule of law and things like that. So this is because today Barnier will have to make a very

00:39difficult announcement, in particular in terms of taxation. There is a big gap in the public

00:44finance. He has to increase tax or to cut spending. Cutting spending will be very hard because,

00:50again, he needs to satisfy the far right. So he needs to make sure that the far right somehow

00:55feels happy to continue to support him despite having to increase taxes. And the only way

01:00will be to tell a lot of big, big, big things about security migration, because in the end,

01:06this is only the far right who can support his government.

01:09And do you think that the rest of France will react well to this speech, particularly if it

01:14comes to raising taxes? I mean, who particularly is going to be targeted by this tax hike?

01:20He's been very careful trying to say this will be about those who have the broadest shoulder.

01:24The truth is that Macron's deal in 2017 was that he was going to cut tax on labour and increase

01:30taxation and pollution to compensate. If you remember the yellow jackets, the carbon taxation

01:35never happens. And that's where the gap is. So Barnier will need to revert some of the tax cuts.

01:41Some of it will be on business. Some of it will be on, I guess, labour income of those with the

01:47broadest shoulders. So depending on how people perceive themselves as middle class or upper class,

01:52this will be typically, I think, upper middle class and middle class earners who are also,

01:56incidentally, people who would be more likely to vote for people like Michel Barnier in normal

02:01times. But then what about the other side of the opposition, the left? How are they likely to react?

02:06Because it sounds like for many people amongst the opposition, that actually might be something

02:10that suits them. For the people in opposition, I think they are out of the game. They've already

02:16announced that they will table a vote of no confidence. Perhaps it will come as a surprise.

02:20There are two surprises I might expect. The first thing is that Barnier's taxation might

02:24be more progressive. So for instance, he might announce something on taxation of capital or of

02:29wealth, which is something the left has been calling for for a long time. And also something

02:34I've been quite surprised to hear is that Barnier is teasing some big announcements on ecological

02:39debt. So will he try to do some carbon tax again or to do something very left-wing of environmental?

02:45I'm not holding my breath, but this would be something that might surprise the left,

02:49although the left has already been so, so hard on saying this is anti-democratic. We will table

02:54a vote of no confidence that in practice, Barnier, his only hope is still to keep the far right on

03:00board. And also that's how he got the job. He got the job because Macron think he can make the far

03:04right happy. Now, if Barnier is giving this speech all about perhaps raising taxes, it's because,

03:10of course, the hole in France's public finances is worse than expected. Just to remind everyone,

03:14the budget deficit is at risk of topping 6% of output, which is far above what was

03:19estimated last spring. Just set the stage for us. How did France, Europe's second biggest economy,

03:25get itself into this position in the first place? Was it due to dropping that carbon tax

03:30after the Yellow Vest protests? I think this is a big part of the story, is that really Macron

03:35wanted to do a tax shift, but it's much easier politically to decrease some tax than to decrease

03:40some. It's not the first one. If you remember, François Hollande also had a plan to tax truck

03:45pollution. He had to cancel everything, costing billions to the state. The truth is that France

03:50has a very high spending level, and to sustain it, you need high taxes. There were a relatively

03:56widespread agreement that tax on labour was too high. But if you don't tax labour, you need to

04:00tax something else. I think that at the moment, Barnier's only possibility would be to tax labour

04:05again. Thank you so much for that, French politics expert Renaud Foucault.

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