Conservative candidate Merz leads Germany's turbulent election race

FRANCE 24 English

German voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament that will determine how the country is run for the next four years. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Ed Turner, Chair of the International Association for the Study of German Politics and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is Apropos. Germany's far-right AFD party looks poised to capture a historic one in

00:08five ballots as voters in Germany prepare to head to the polls this Sunday. The election

00:13is expected to deliver victory for the Conservative bloc and a strong second place showing for

00:18the alternative for Germany. With a series of violent attacks linked to foreign-born

00:24suspects compounding public concern over security, immigration has been a central issue during

00:30the campaign. As Antony Kerrigan reports, health care staff are increasingly worried

00:35that the debate will make it harder to recruit skilled workers from abroad to fill a growing

00:40labour shortage.

00:42Dr Mario de la Piedra-Walter, a neurologist from Mexico, enjoys talking to his patients

00:49at this Berlin hospital. But he's been here a few years now and he feels the contrast

00:54between his and the German culture adds a warmth to their interactions.

01:01It took about two years to get my qualifications recognised here. In the end I think it's important

01:07to be able to speak the German language and as for medicine it doesn't change that much

01:12from one country to another. So that change was a bit easier.

01:19Nurse Santiago Lorenzo is new to the ward but described receiving a positive multicultural

01:25welcome on his arrival, with colleagues from a range of countries helping him with his

01:29German. 18% of the German population are immigrants and their hospitals are a microcosm. 15% of

01:37the country's health care workers hold foreign passports, including 5,000 Syrian doctors.

01:44The Berlin hospital's care director explains that Germany's ageing population makes immigration

01:49not an indulgence but a necessity.

01:52More people in an ageing society are in need of care and fewer and fewer young people are

01:58coming along and so one of our key priorities is recruiting skilled labour from abroad.

02:06He fears the current political rhetoric will deter talented foreign workers from choosing

02:10Germany. The head of the German Hospitals Association said that some 40,000 skilled

02:15workers would be needed every year to plug the demographic deficit. And it's not just

02:20health care. Logistics and construction too struggle to recruit and depend heavily on

02:25foreign workers.

02:27For more on what's at stake in Sunday's vote, let's bring in Ed Turner, Chair of the International

02:32Association for the Study of German Politics and co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe.

02:37Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Ed. So, as we've been

02:41saying, a series of attacks has put security and migration front and centre during this

02:48election campaign. Has it been the priority for voters? How exactly has it played out?

02:54What you say is absolutely right. There are two key issues in the campaign. One is the

03:00rather sluggish state of Germany's economy. And the second are issues around migration

03:05and security. And certainly it was interesting, for example, in one of the TV debates between

03:10Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the CDU-CSU's candidate, the centre-right candidate, about

03:15half the airtime was taken up talking about migration and security issues.

03:21And at the front-runner, you mentioned him there, Friedrich Merz, he actually sponsored

03:24a draft bill with the AFD with support from that party. Will that have helped or hindered

03:29his campaign?

03:30Well, that's right. He put it forward. And contrary to what he'd said previously, he

03:36was willing to accept that it might only pass with AFD votes. It wouldn't be fair to say

03:41the AFD sponsored it in any way. But I think at the time, that felt like a really big thing.

03:47It was to say it went against what Merz had said previously. It allowed the AFD to be

03:51seen to be having a more visible impact on German politics than had been the case here

03:56The polls really haven't shifted on this. The one change that we've seen, interestingly,

04:01in recent days, is that the far-left left party has been doing a bit better, perhaps

04:05as voters are more polarised in their responses to this.

04:09And Ed, the AFD wants to close German borders, leave the common European asylum policy. What

04:14are the other main parties' policies when it comes to immigration?

04:18Well, amongst the mainstream parties, they're all talking about reducing irregular migration.

04:26The clip earlier that you showed about labour migration was interesting. And I think there's

04:29an acceptance that the migration of skilled workers to Germany is necessary. But they're

04:33talking about clamping down on irregular migration. They're all talking about increasing level

04:37of deportations. Merz wants to go further. He wants to see people turned back at the

04:44German border. He wants to see more internment of people with no right to be in Germany.

04:49And that brings with it a host of questions about the legality of that under European

04:53law. He does also talk about maybe rewriting some of the European rules on this as well.

04:59And the rise that we're seeing in support for the far-right, is that due to the issue

05:05of immigration of security, the policies that the party itself has? Or is it more to do

05:09with a general disillusionment with the traditional parties in Germany? What's behind it?

05:15Well, of course, these things play into each other. You've got a situation where all of

05:20the leading candidates in the election are relatively unpopular. You've got a situation

05:24where the economy has really been struggling. You've got a situation where the three-party

05:29coalition until November governed Germany has visibly been at odds within itself, lots

05:36of public arguments. So all of those have fuelled the unpopularity of the mainstream.

05:41But then on top of it, there is concern about migration, as well as a pretty bleak economic

05:47background and backdrop. And so, you know, put all of those things together. These are

05:52quite propitious circumstances for the far-right to cast its appeal.

05:56And in terms of European policy, how much is at stake with these elections? A strong

06:01government in Germany, it is needed, particularly when Europe is dealing with the various threats

06:06posed by Donald Trump. Also, when it comes to finding a peace deal for Ukraine.

06:11Well, I think that's absolutely right. And I mean, let me flip it around. Imagine if

06:16you have a situation in Germany where no government has formed for months on end, where there's

06:19a series of bickering, where, heaven forbid, there's talk about new elections. Those things

06:24with a void at the heart of Europe would be extremely damaging at a moment when it's very

06:29obvious that Europe needs to pull together. Equally amongst the mainstream parties on

06:34European questions, there's a relatively strong consensus. I think there's also a feeling

06:37that Germany has not been punching at its weight over the course of the last parliament

06:42and that there is an opportunity to reset some important relationships and start afresh.

06:46Anna, those mainstream parties, you mentioned them there, you've kind of suggested perhaps

06:50coalition talks could be on the line a little further down. All the parties, the mainstream

06:55ones saying that they won't work with the AFD. Is that something that's likely to change

06:59depending on how the cards fall following this election?

07:04I think there's absolutely no prospect of mainstream parties looking to bring the AFD

07:08into government. This is a party which is really extreme, puts the word re-migration

07:13in its manifesto, talks about Germany leaving the European Union, where one of its regional

07:18leaders has twice been prosecuted for using banned Nazi symbols. They're not to be compared

07:22with the parties of Giorgio Maloney or Marine Le Pen. However, that doesn't change the fact

07:28it'll be difficult to form a coalition. I think people worry about what would happen

07:32if coalition talks between mainstream parties broke down.

07:36You mentioned kind of rhetoric there, propaganda perhaps. How has language itself been used

07:40in this debate? The far right talk a lot about re-migration, which actually seems to mean

07:47mass deportation, but they're not exactly calling it that, are they? So how is language

07:52playing into perhaps moving this party more towards the mainstream, or is it?

07:59Well I think what the language shows, and it's important not just to focus on the language

08:03of the far right, but of the mainstream, is that German politics, mainstream politics

08:07has shifted on these issues, and in a way which certainly takes a harsher tone on migration

08:12more generally. And indeed, sometimes if you look at the way that Friedrich Merz cast his

08:17appeal to federal parliament in the debate that you mentioned, when in the end his parliamentarians

08:22voted with the AFD, it's really quite robust, really quite strong language, which we wouldn't

08:30have expected to hear from mainstream German politicians in recent years.

08:34And the main candidates in the running for Chancellor, they're currently of course taking

08:38part in the final TV debate ahead of the vote on Sunday. Will that make any difference to

08:44how voters decide to cast their ballots on the day? What kind of an impact are these

08:48debates having on the campaign?

08:51The TV debates are having a minimal impact. Voters often just look at them and feel themselves

08:55confirmed in their views. Maybe all left shorts in the first one, which I think was the most

08:59widely watched, had a slightly better night than some expected, got slightly better ratings,

09:04but the polls didn't really shift at all. And one of the remarkable things about this

09:09campaign is that the polls have been quite stable. And of course, in any case, many Germans

09:13have already cast their votes by post. So it certainly looks nailed on that the Christian

09:17Democrats will come out on top in the election. It looks almost certain that the AFD will

09:22come second.

09:23But the uncertainty that exists is around which of the smaller parties will achieve

09:28the 5% which is necessary to gain seats. And that in turn will play into coalition arithmetic.

09:33So it's still going to be an interesting night on Sunday. But it's very clear that the CDU-CSU

09:37will come out on top.

09:39And just finally, Friedrich Merz, he is a clear backer of Ukraine. He's been targeted

09:44by pro-Russian disinformation during this campaign. What kind of an impact is that going

09:50to have on voters? And what does that really say about how important this election is really

09:56to the rest of Europe?

09:59Well, disinformation, indeed, Russian disinformation is something of a feature of election campaigns,

10:05not just in Germany. And clearly, it's been one of a number of factors boosting AFD support,

10:14but I think not the main one, to be honest. I think we've covered the reasons why the

10:17AFD has been gaining ground.

10:20Friedrich Merz will continue to try and keep his nerve, try and continue to lead his party's

10:27campaign to a successful conclusion. They won't get a fantastic result by historical

10:31standards, but they're very likely to lead the next government.

10:34Ed, we'll have to leave it there for now. We'll see how it all plays out on Sunday.

10:38Thanks so much for joining us. That's Ed Turner, Chair of the International Association for

10:42the Study of German Politics. He's also co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe.

10:47Well, that's it from us for now.

Category

Transcript

Recommended