Trump has int'l connections: Europe, Arab Gulf will work with US to achieve peace, reconstruct Gaza

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00:00Moving on to more analysis, then, of US foreign policy under Trump 2.0 or Trump 47.

00:06Choose your formula as you wish.

00:08What next for Israel, then, under President Trump?

00:10The US president calls himself the most pro-Israel US president in history.

00:15That's what he calls himself.

00:17And staunchly supported Israel during his first term,

00:21even before taking office for the second term.

00:23He proved instrumental in pushing Benjamin Netanyahu's government

00:27into signing a ceasefire deal.

00:28Remember, that's a deal that Joe Biden put on the table back in May.

00:32Emerald Maxwell has this.

00:37The self-proclaimed best friend that Israel has ever had is back in the White House.

00:42We're going to make Israel great again and we're going to make America great again.

00:46We're going to make them both great again, greater than ever before.

00:50Token of affection.

00:51Donald Trump portrays himself as Israel's steadfast protector,

00:55and his record reflects that.

00:57During his first term as US president, he recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital,

01:02and followed up by moving the United States embassy there from Tel Aviv,

01:06thereby undermining the cause of Palestinians

01:09who want East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

01:14Trump also recognised the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel,

01:19a decision honoured by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

01:22who named a planned settlement there after him.

01:25And the US president enabled illegal Israeli settlement activity

01:29with his Middle East peace plan,

01:32offering Israel the right to annex roughly 30% of the West Bank.

01:37Under this vision, Jerusalem will remain Israel's undivided,

01:42very important, undivided capital.

01:47But all of this came at the expense of the Palestinians,

01:50who were further marginalised.

01:52Trump's peace plan, which they rejected,

01:54prompting clashes between protesters and Israeli armed forces,

01:58offered Palestinians a smaller, demilitarised state

02:01and denied millions of refugees the right to return.

02:06Jerusalem is not for sale.

02:11And all our rights are not for sale, and not for bargaining.

02:17Your conspiracy deal won't pass.

02:22Also during his first term,

02:25Trump facilitated the normalisation of ties between Israel

02:28and Gulf Arab states with the Abraham Accords,

02:31as well as with Morocco and Sudan.

02:34Although the political landscape has changed since October 7th

02:38and amid the devastating war in Gaza,

02:41Trump has renewed his first-term pledge to deliver peace in the Middle East.

02:45Meanwhile, Netanyahu, having buckled to heavy pressure from Trump

02:49in agreeing to the ceasefire deal,

02:51will expect US support over future control of Gaza.

03:22Constitutionally speaking, that means he's not running again.

03:24He's going to have a little bit more latitude in foreign policy,

03:28and in particular in the Middle East,

03:29which means that whatever unconditional and very strong support

03:34that you saw for Israel in the first term,

03:36you might not see it actually in the second term.

03:37I know this sounds controversial or thought-provoking,

03:39but that's my assessment, my guess.

03:43The support is going to have to reconcile

03:45with two priorities of the administration

03:47in the second term in the Middle East.

03:48The first being achieving some kind of peace between Israelis and Palestinians,

03:53if actually you believe sincerely that the president

03:57is going to try to go for a Nobel Peace Prize.

04:00So that's going to require some Israeli concessions.

04:03And then the second is the issue of Iran, obviously.

04:06And that requires some kind of stability in the Middle East,

04:09obviously some kind of a deal,

04:11or at least an ultimatum to the Iranians.

04:13And that in itself also is going to require some concessions from the Israelis.

04:17So that support that we're all very much accustomed to

04:20from the United States or from the administration,

04:23it does have a ceiling.

04:25Bilal, focusing in on the situation in Gaza,

04:29it was only last March that Jared Kushner was talking about

04:32a kind of development deal for the Gaza Strip,

04:35bulldozing it, creating some kind of gated community,

04:40bussing out Palestinian families

04:42and putting them somewhere in the Negev Desert.

04:44When that kind of thing is discussed,

04:47one can understand why people perhaps are very pessimistic

04:49or cynical about what might happen under Trump's administration.

04:55Not necessarily.

04:56I would have put the cart before the horse.

04:58I think everybody very much understands that the pathway to

05:02peace and reconciliation in that part of the world

05:05is through the one and only two-state solution.

05:08Even the president himself understands that.

05:10Whatever economics discussion would happen afterwards,

05:13that's perfectly fine.

05:14But I don't think it has to be put at the forefront

05:16of any Middle East item on the agenda of the administration.

05:20So, two-state solution.

05:22You'd say that Trump would sign up for that.

05:24He realizes that has to happen.

05:26How would he convince Benjamin Netanyahu to go along with that?

05:30Well, exactly what I said before.

05:32I mean, he does have a lot of leverage.

05:33He does have a very strong desire

05:36to achieve something really historic in the Middle East.

05:39He wants to be remembered as someone who did something

05:41that no other predecessor of his

05:43in the entire history of US foreign policy has been able to do.

05:46That requires Israeli concessions.

05:48Believe it or not, there's going to be a ton of

05:52behind-the-scenes negotiations between the American leadership

05:54and the Israeli leadership.

05:56Actually, it might not be Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.

05:59We don't even know his political future.

06:02The stability of the cabinet itself right now is in question.

06:06But assuming he survives, given the controversial deal

06:12that he just signed with Hamas,

06:13controversial, of course, in the eyes of his extremist colleagues

06:16in the cabinet, assuming he survives,

06:18boy, he's going to have some kind of a tough negotiations

06:21and conversation with President Trump,

06:23who I believe has no problem using his leverage.

06:26So Trump will do what needs to be done

06:28in order to get the result that he wants.

06:32Is the result that he wants exactly what the result

06:35that the Palestinians would want?

06:36I suppose that becomes the question too,

06:37because they're going to want things on their terms.

06:40They want things to be the way they would like them to be.

06:43And perhaps they will not correspond with what Israel wants.

06:47Yeah, I mean, obviously, the details are always going to be

06:49very important in here.

06:50And we've been trying to solve this conflict,

06:52as you very well know, for decades.

06:53So I'm not saying any of this is going to be easy.

06:56But all I'm saying is that there's a little bit more latitude

06:58on the part of this administration to push for things

07:00that previous presidents were not able to do

07:03because of certain influences on US policy.

07:06I think the president has an enough independent base,

07:09enough, I would say, autonomous action on foreign policy,

07:13especially in the Middle East,

07:14a very strong mandate, remember, with Congress.

07:18I mean, he's pretty much got a free hand.

07:19And so it really is up to him, personally speaking,

07:23giving the order to his senior associates

07:26working on the Middle East.

07:27And he's got some heavy hitters.

07:29Why didn't Joe Biden make as much progress?

07:32Joe Biden, friend of Israel,

07:34someone who supported Israel to the nth degree

07:38over what was happening in Gaza, perhaps,

07:40tried to get Netanyahu to make his troops cease and desist

07:44in some way, shape or form.

07:45But that was never followed up by Israel, of course.

07:48Why did Biden not make the progress

07:49that perhaps he would have wanted?

07:52I don't want to sit here and oversimplify it, obviously.

07:55But I think it comes down to one thing, one thing only,

07:58the inability or lack of desire of the former president

08:02to use his leverage and use the entire might

08:05of the United States to really push things forward.

08:12I also don't want to completely discredit the administration.

08:14I mean, the reason why we're here now with the deal

08:19is that they've done some work themselves.

08:21But I also don't want to discredit

08:23the indirect or psychological influence

08:27of the incoming administration.

08:29Because you got to remember, I mean,

08:30the Israelis knew that President Trump was coming to power.

08:33And so I bet you that they obviously made concessions

08:37with that in mind, recognising that whatever

08:39they put on the table is going to be nicely received,

08:42positively received by the administration.

08:44But to your point, my friend, look, I don't know.

08:47I mean, it's entirely disappointing, obviously,

08:50very much embarrassing, the fact that we were not

08:52willing or able to use our leverage.

08:54But things are going to change with this administration.

08:56I promise you that.

08:57Indeed, one hopes there is peace.

08:58One hopes there are no more deaths.

09:00And one hopes there's some kind of way

09:01that these wounds can be healed.

09:04But of course, it's going to take a lot of time.

09:06And as part of that, a lot of literal rebuilding.

09:09Is that something where you think Trump's influence

09:12will come into play?

09:13Will there be a kind of a Trump stamp on what is built?

09:16I'm not suggesting we revisit the Kushner plan,

09:18but some kind of influence happening there.

09:22Oh, sure.

09:23Oh, absolutely.

09:24And this is someone who has no problem discussing

09:26economics, investments, reconstruction.

09:28This is his sort of comfort zone.

09:30He's got the international connections.

09:32Everybody's going to want to work with him,

09:34be it the Europeans, be it the Arab Gulf powers.

09:37Everybody who's got money, who has a vested interest

09:39in achieving peace and reconstructing Gaza

09:42and obviously Lebanon as well,

09:46is going to work with the president.

09:49And how important will it be for Donald Trump

09:52to basically shore up Israel as it is,

09:54to look further east, of course,

09:56to what's happening in Syria,

09:57what's happening in Iran?

09:59How important is it for Trump to make sure

10:01that he maintains what he needs there?

10:05Well, look, let's start with personnel, OK?

10:08I mean, we still don't have a full picture

10:10of who's going to be occupying the National Security Council

10:13in terms of Middle East portfolios, right?

10:14We do know that he has some personnel there,

10:17but the team is not ready yet.

10:18And so these details that you just asked me about right now,

10:21they're still going to have to be hammered by the new team

10:24that's going to assume positions

10:26in the National Security Council

10:27and also how they're going to find their counterparts

10:30in the entire interagency in the United States government.

10:33So that's in the Pentagon, that's in the State Department.

10:35A lot of people are leaving, right?

10:37But we still don't have everybody coming in.

10:40And so that's why you call the transition, obviously.

10:42A lot of these details that you're asking me about,

10:44they're going to have to be formulated and coordinated

10:47with all of these people,

10:48many of whom are still not in the building.

10:51So many questions, the answer's yet to come,

10:55but we sense there is something positive

10:57moving across the Middle East,

10:58and perhaps that could be because of the leverage Trump has.

11:01Bill Al, thank you for joining us

11:03and giving us this sense of what is to come.

11:05Pleasure to have you on the programme.

11:07That's Bill Al Saab,

11:08Director of Trends Research and Advisory Centre,

11:11Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

11:12Thank you for joining us, sir.

11:13Thank you very much for sharing your analysis with us.

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