'Could've been settled long ago': Following extensive delays, there will 'definitely' be a ceasefire

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00At least six people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on central Gaza early Tuesday, according

00:05to officials.

00:06The strike hit an area of Deir el-Bala, where displaced people were living in tents, killing

00:11two women and four children.

00:13It comes as negotiators meet in Doha this Tuesday, seeking to finalize details of a

00:18ceasefire deal.

00:20There were reports of a midnight breakthrough on an agreement, which would see the release

00:24of a number of hostages from Gaza and then a halt to fighting.

00:28Emerald Maxwell has more.

00:33She was freed from Gaza more than 400 days ago, but her partner, along with dozens of

00:38others, are still in captivity.

00:41My soul is still there, tied to my promise that I will do everything to free the hostages

00:46still being held.

00:47As long as I haven't freed them, I cannot truly begin my own rehabilitation to heal

00:52my soul.

00:53Ilana Grzywski was one of 105 hostages released during a one-week truce in November 2023,

01:00the only pause in fighting so far.

01:03Now with international mediation efforts again appearing to inch closer to a ceasefire agreement,

01:08she says it's time to turn promises into actions.

01:11Put pressure on both sides, pressure on Netanyahu and Hamas to end the war in exchange for all

01:17of our hostages, to bring back the living so they can heal and the murdered so they

01:21can be properly buried.

01:24Israeli and Palestinian officials described progress in talks in Doha, mediated by Qatar,

01:30and attended by envoys of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

01:33Trump's January 20th inauguration is now widely seen in the region as a de facto deadline.

01:39Progress has been made and I hope that within a short time we will see things happening

01:49but it is still to be proved.

01:52But the Israeli government faces pressure from its hardline nationalist wing, including

01:57from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who vowed to oppose the emerging deal, calling

02:03it a national security catastrophe and saying now was the time to open the gates of hell

02:07on Gaza until the complete surrender of Hamas.

02:11Hours later, in an emotionally charged encounter, angry hostage families confronted Smotrich

02:17about his position, accusing him of abandoning the remaining hostages.

02:22For more on this story, we can bring in Nomi Bar-Yakov, who is an Associate Fellow at Chatham

02:28House's International Security Programme.

02:31Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.

02:35You have extensive experience in complex ceasefire and peace negotiations.

02:40In your view, how likely is it that we get a truce in the coming days?

02:46Very likely this time.

02:48And I think the difference this time from previous times is that Donald Trump, the elected

02:53president who's coming into office on Monday the 20th of January, which is very soon, is

03:00exercising the leverage that the U.S. has over Israel.

03:04His envoy, Steve Whitkoff, was in Israel a couple of days ago and he basically said to

03:09Netanyahu, you've got to take the deal.

03:12So yes, Netanyahu is facing opposition.

03:15This is the same deal that has been on the table since May, with minor tweaks.

03:19It could have been settled a long time ago.

03:21It could have been settled a very long time ago, meaning also before May.

03:26But there have been extensive delays and many spanners have been put in the work.

03:35And now I think, yes, it is going to happen.

03:37I would say definitely so.

03:39All right.

03:40Well, if we can then briefly look ahead to after the war.

03:45In your view, what role could Israel potentially play in a future Gaza?

03:51Who's in control?

03:52Well, I don't think going to after the war is a bit too soon, sort of a slightly sort

03:57of jumping over too many hoops.

03:59This is a very complex deal, as you said, ceasefires are complex.

04:03It's a 42-day deal only for the first stage, in which 33 hostages are going to be released

04:11and around 240 Palestinian prisoners, including a large number of prisoners who've been sentenced

04:19for life for killing Israelis.

04:21So I think we are, what role Israel is going to play has not been decided.

04:27It has been that what is currently being negotiated is when and where Israel will withdraw

04:34from, because the withdrawal is gradual.

04:37And in this current deal, over a million Gazans will be allowed to return to the north, which

04:43is groundbreaking, given that Israel had said that it will not allow Palestinians to return

04:51north of the Netzerim Corridor, which severs the Strip into two.

04:55So I think what role Israel is going to play remains to be seen.

05:01It very much will depend on who will fill in the vacuum, which states will fill in the

05:06gap to support the Palestinians to self-govern.

05:11At present, there is no governance.

05:12It's total chaos and a very dangerous situation.

05:17So this is very welcome news, and this is the first step towards hopefully stability

05:23and ultimately hopefully peace.

05:26What can we make then of Benjamin Netanyahu's pledge to, and that of his war cabinet, to

05:32eradicate Hamas?

05:34I mean, what really were they trying to achieve by that?

05:38Do you think that that would have been feasible?

05:41Well, I think Hamas has been dealt a very severe blow.

05:46The entire leadership has been killed, and its military arsenal has been virtually dismantled.

05:57They have pockets of rockets here and there, but nowhere near what they used to have.

06:03And I don't think Hamas poses a threat to Israel.

06:06So I think Netanyahu can definitely say that he has achieved that goal.

06:11What he cannot say is that he's managed to return all 254 hostages live.

06:16And at present, out of the 98 hostages that are still in Gaza, he's only agreed on the

06:23first stage, which is a stage where they're committing to release 33 hostages over a period

06:30of 42 days.

06:31So that, again, it is fraught with hurdles.

06:35We know from the previous deal of November 2023 that it got busted, it didn't work, because

06:46Israel said that Hamas had changed the list of hostages.

06:50Here there is a list, but it's not known who is dead and who is alive, and it was part

06:56of Israel's requirement before a deal was going to be signed that Hamas will provide

07:02a list of who is dead and who is alive, and that hasn't been done.

07:06But that will not stop the deal from moving forward.

07:09But again, there are plenty of hurdles along the way, and we have to be very cautious about

07:15the success of this deal.

07:17And hopefully the idea is that after 16 days of this deal, the second stage, whereby a

07:26further withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the remaining hostages will be released.

07:31That very much remains to be seen, because it is not a secret that Netanyahu would like

07:36to continue with military action, and it is also not a secret that Trump would like to

07:42see an end of this, and he's going to exercise unprecedented leverage in this particular

07:49phase.

07:50Leverage we did not see the Biden administration, sadly, sadly we did not see the Biden administration

07:56exercise this leverage.

07:59Do we think that if this ceasefire deal is signed, do you think that that will calm conflicts

08:03on other fronts, for example, from the Houthi rebels in Yemen?

08:08Yes, I think so.

08:09I think if it is signed, we saw in November 2023 that when, during the period of the ceasefire,

08:17Hezbollah in the north altered actions, it was pre-Houthi violence.

08:22And I think, yes, I think that during the actual period of the ceasefire, we're likely

08:29to see less activity.

08:31I'm not suggesting that there will be no activity, but hopefully we will see less activity.

08:37The Houthis are a very complex issue, and that remains to be seen.

08:39I'm not sure how much they listen to any other country, meaning to their sponsors.

08:48Iran, and I don't know, Iran has been severely weakened, so it's not clear how Iran will

08:53act in this case.

08:54But certainly I'm not foreseeing any military action aimed at Israel during the actual period

09:03of the ceasefire.

09:04Right.

09:05And just if we go to the Israeli army for a moment, some troops have actually spoken

09:10out about the army's conduct in Gaza, saying that it crossed ethical red lines.

09:16Can we envisage any internal consequences, or even a potential reform of the IDF after

09:22this?

09:23Oh, that's a real wishful thinking.

09:26Reform of the IDF, rules of engagement in particular, would be welcomed.

09:31There is a tremendous amount of malaise and evidence coming out, and soldiers speaking

09:40out, and I'm sure that many of them will continue to do so.

09:44Whether it would lead to trials, undoubtedly.

09:51Whether it would lead to a total reform of the IDF remains to be seen.

09:58There is currently an extremely right-wing government in place in Israel that is not

10:03likely to want to carry out any such reforms.

10:07Post-elections in Israel, if the opposition wins, you're likely to see reforms.

10:12All right.

10:13We'll have to leave it there.

10:14But Nomi Bar-Yakov, thank you very much for your analysis, a reminder that you're from

10:18the International Security Programme from Chatham House.

Category

Transcript

Recommended