'Israel's options 'limited': They've 'failed' to destroy Hamas, 'unlikely' to destroy Hezbollah

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00:00Welcome to the program. Israel is bombarding Lebanon for the fourth consecutive day as

00:08the country's foreign minister rejected a call by the United States and other world

00:12powers for a 21-day ceasefire. This afternoon, a strike hit Dahiyeh in the south of Beirut.

00:19Israel described it as a precision strike and a source close to Hezbollah said a commander

00:24in the group was the target. Now that news comes as on the other side of the border,

00:30the Israeli military has said it is today conducting an exercise to simulate manoeuvres

00:36in Lebanon. Indeed, the Israeli government has suggested a ground invasion of Lebanon

00:42is possible. Earlier on this afternoon, I spoke to Rawad Taha, who's our correspondent

00:47in Beirut, and he told me a bit more about that strike on the capital.

00:54The Israeli military has attacked Beirut's southern suburb, Dahiyeh, with three airstrikes

01:00targeting a residential apartment and building located in the center of Beirut's southern

01:06suburb. According to preliminary information, there is a significant number of injuries

01:12in the area. Now, just to clarify, this is a residential area that has not been evacuated.

01:18A lot of people in Beirut's southern suburb, despite the fact of the continuous rounds

01:24of targeted assassinations which Israel has been conducting over the past week, we haven't

01:29seen mass evacuations from Dahiyeh just yet. According to preliminary information, a senior

01:37Hezbollah commander was the target of that assassination. Whether that assassination

01:42attempt was successful or not from Israel's perspective is yet to be known. We have confirmation

01:48of a significant number of injuries, no confirmation yet of any deaths in particular.

01:55Now staying in Lebanon, our colleagues at France 2 Television spent the day with a group

02:00of Lebanese fighters in Nabatyeh, firefighters that is, in the southern town that has come

02:05under heavy Israeli fire. Here's their report.

02:10Nabatyeh in southern Lebanon faces relentless Israeli shelling. Here, a road and a building

02:17have been hit and emergency services are on site. They are witnessed by journalists

02:24who are en route to meet with the local fire brigade. Only moments after they arrive, another

02:31attack begins. There's another one. There it is. Come on, let's go.

02:40Then as they race towards the truck, there's yet another strike.

02:48It's on Nabatyeh, you have to go. Since Monday, these firefighters have been

02:54working non-stop. This time the fire hit the third floor of a building in the city centre.

03:03The men race in and emerge with children in their arms, who call out for their parents

03:15in shock. Come on buddy, keep your head down. What's

03:21your name? Don't worry, everything's going to be OK.

03:27In the chaos, they struggled to find the ambulance. This little boy was in the flat

03:35below the impact. How are you feeling? Tell me how old you

03:42are. Three? That's great. You're very brave. Six injured, including four children, were

03:51rushed to hospital. Among them were several members of a family who had already loaded

03:55their car, but did not have time to flee the war.

04:02Back at the fire station, the exhausted firefighters enjoy a few minutes rest. Nearly all of them

04:09are volunteers, who are now staying on site full time.

04:14As you can see, we've added mattresses to the floor so that they can rest a little.

04:19Nabatyeh is a Hezbollah stronghold, and Israel is trying to justify these strikes by saying

04:24that they are targeting the militant group. The Israelis say that it's the fault of Hezbollah

04:30because they are hiding in civilian buildings. What do you respond to that?

04:36I'm not going to make any military comment, but I'll put the question back to you. When

04:42you toured with us, did you see any weapons or fighters?

04:47On the other side of town, there's more shelling. This time it hits a house. A man is injured

04:53and the garage is on fire. During the shoot, the reporters were not allowed to film inside

04:58one building that had been hit. They never found out what was behind its walls.

05:06That report from Nabatyeh in the south of Lebanon. Now, air raid sirens have been sounding

05:12in the north of Israel today. In the Upper Galilee area, the IDF has said that some 40

05:17projectiles were fired from Lebanon. There are no reports of any casualties. Earlier

05:22on this afternoon, I spoke to Claire Pakala, who's covering developments for us from Jerusalem.

05:27She has a bit more on the strikes on Beirut earlier today.

05:34The Israeli Defence Forces, the IDF, say they are continuing to strike and downgrade Hezbollah.

05:40We saw very recently those strikes in Beirut, but also earlier on today, the IDF saying

05:46it was targeting areas of the border between Syria and Lebanon, areas it says weapons

05:52from Syria are transported across and get into Hezbollah's hands. We also had a statement

05:59from the Prime Minister's office earlier on today, saying any reports of an easing up

06:05of the fighting were completely the opposite of the truth, and that the IDF was very much

06:12continuing to hit at full capacity, full force, when it came to targeting Hezbollah. So that

06:20should give you an idea of where the Israelis stand at the moment when it comes to this

06:24northern front, the north of Israel, but that strikes, those strikes that it's making in

06:29Lebanon. Of course, we know thousands, tens of thousands of Lebanese have had to flee

06:34those southern parts of Lebanon, but also other areas of the country, trying to get

06:37to safety and over 600 people in Lebanon have been killed just in the last few days alone.

06:43And Clare, also today, the Israeli army says it is conducting a military exercise in the

06:50north of Israel, near the Lebanese border. It does seem there is some sort of political

06:55momentum now building towards a ground invasion of Lebanon. Is there public appetite though

07:01for such an incursion?

07:07I was in the north of Israel yesterday, speaking to people who live there, just a few kilometres

07:12away from the border with Lebanon. Of course, they live with the constant threat of rockets

07:17and drones now coming in and hitting their homes. Also, the debris which can fall to

07:22the ground when the Israeli air defence system strikes down and intercepts those rockets

07:28or drones that come into the Israeli side from Lebanon. So that's a constant threat

07:33for them. That said though, they also are very aware that while Israel has the upper

07:39hand when it comes to the skies against Hezbollah, a ground offensive is a very different matter

07:45and that Israeli troops would be very much at risk and could pay a heavy price if they

07:51were to go in on the ground into Lebanon. They would be going into enemy territory where

07:57they would be going up against Hezbollah's defences. Now, of course, Hezbollah has been

08:01downgraded, particularly in the last week by Israel. We've seen those attacks on the

08:06Hezbollah fighters, pages and walkie-talkies. Obviously, the bombing we've seen in the last

08:12few days by Israel into Lebanon. But also, over the last several months, Israel has successfully

08:18been knocking out the top brass of Hezbollah one by one. So Hezbollah has been degraded

08:25significantly, but that doesn't mean that it would be an easy ride for Israeli soldiers

08:29if they were to go in on the ground and that many Israelis would be fearful of the price

08:34their soldiers can pay. That said, Israelis will also tell you that they are unhappy and

08:39tired of living with the threat of rocket fire coming from Hezbollah and potentially

08:44hitting their homes and affecting their daily lives. So it's a mix when it comes to the

08:49Israeli side. But certainly, while Israel has the upper hand in the skies, the ground

08:54is a different matter entirely.

08:57That's Claire Pakalan in Jerusalem for us. Well, I'm pleased to welcome to the programme

09:01now, Aaron Bregman. He served in the Israeli army for six years. He fought in the 1982

09:08Lebanon war. He later, though, did refuse to serve as a military reservist in the occupied

09:13Palestinian territories. He's now a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies

09:17at King's College in London. He joins us from there. Good afternoon to you and thanks for

09:21joining us.

09:23Thank you for having me. Thank you.

09:25First of all, what is your reaction today to the Israeli government or at least the

09:30Israeli foreign minister rejecting these international calls for a ceasefire?

09:35Well, the right wing partners in the coalition are very strongly against it and also members

09:45of the Likud. You see, the issues themselves are difficult to be sorted out. But I believe

09:53that the main problem is the Israeli government or elements in the Israeli governments who

09:59would put obstacles on any ceasefire. It's going very well for the Israelis so far. And

10:06there are elements in the government and in the public, too, who want the war to continue.

10:14Let's talk about the public then, because I'm not sure you just heard that clip we played

10:17from Claire Pakalan, our reporter who's in Jerusalem at the moment. But I did ask her

10:22how much support she's heard in Israel of the idea of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

10:28And I'd like to ask you the same thing. How much support do you think there is now in

10:32Israel for what's currently happening in Lebanon? And might that change should this be a ground

10:37war as well?

10:39I believe that those people in northern Israel and the 60,000 people who are staying in hotels

10:48last 11 months, they want the military to sort it out. But I think that the majority

10:57of the Israelis know that there are no easy victories in Lebanon. And therefore, sending

11:07in the troops and the tanks might end up in a situation where, number one, there are many

11:16casualties because the Israelis will lose their advantage when they invade Lebanon.

11:24You know, it is difficult to use tanks in southern Lebanon because of the geography,

11:29and it is difficult to use airplanes in south Lebanon. Therefore, the Israelis are going

11:33to lose the advantage they have at the moment. But the other problem is that they might get

11:42stuck in Lebanon for many, many years. When I served in the Israeli army during the first

11:50Lebanon war, we invaded. And the idea was to have a 72-hour invasion. And Israel stayed

11:58there for 18 years. So it is complex and complicated.

12:03Indeed. And of course, Israel went back into Lebanon in 2006, didn't it? And Israel, we

12:09know, is a country that has, you know, one of the most sophisticated armies in the world.

12:14But there are many analysts who say, actually, it was Hezbollah with its network of tunnels

12:19underneath the south of Lebanon that actually did far better in that conflict in 2006. Has

12:26Israel learnt the lessons of 82, the war you fought in, and 2006?

12:31Well, yes, 2006 did not go well for the Israelis. They were OK from the air in 2006. But the

12:41moment you send in the troops, it is rifle against rifle, troop against troop. And the

12:51Israelis do not have any advantage whatsoever. On the contrary, Hezbollah has the advantage

12:59if Israel invades, because they know the geography of south Lebanon better than the Israelis.

13:06And they have the population around them. So I think that there are many in Israel who,

13:14while they want the problem to be sorted out and solved, many of them understand that sending

13:23in the troops and the tanks is not necessarily a good idea. I believe that at the moment,

13:31the Israelis are bluffing. At the moment, it could change. They just try to put pressure on

13:37Hezbollah. We are coming. We are exercising. We've mobilized forces. But there will be a moment,

13:46at some point, when the Israelis exhaust their attacks, they will have to face the question,

13:55what's next? And one option in this what's next question could be an invasion into Lebanon.

14:06And just another thought from you on that. It's important to emphasize, isn't it,

14:12when we're talking about Hezbollah, that yes, it is a militant group, but it's also a political

14:16party. It has ministers in the Lebanese cabinet. And it has deep roots in Lebanon, socially,

14:21culturally. And so whether there's a ground invasion or whether Israel keeps going with

14:27these airstrikes, I mean, this group can't be destroyed just simply militarily, can it? It's

14:33far too deeply embedded than that. No, no, no. You know, there are people in Israel who think

14:40that it is possible to destroy Hezbollah. They failed to destroy Hamas fighting there for 11

14:48months. And they're unlikely to destroy Hezbollah. I think that the Israeli government is more

14:58humble now. Their objectives are limited to, number one, to convince Hezbollah by bombing

15:09it, or perhaps by diplomacy, that it should stop firing into Israel. And number two, to convince

15:18Hezbollah to withdraw from the border area, I would say 10 kilometers or so, in order for the

15:27Israeli citizens who left their villages, the Israeli citizens, to go back to these villages.

15:39These are the aims of the Israelis. I don't think that they talk in terms of destroying

15:47Hezbollah. This is impossible. Militarily, it is very, very strong, Hezbollah. The Israelis

15:53claim that they've already destroyed 50 percent of Hezbollah's arsenal. I'm not sure that they did,

16:01but this is what they claim. But even if they did, Hezbollah still got at least 100,000 rockets

16:11and missiles. So it is very strong, and it could attack Israel with all these weapons. I'm not

16:21sure that Nasrallah wants the war to continue, but that's the situation at the moment.

16:27Aaron Bregman, senior fellow at King's College in London. Good to talk to you, sir.

16:32Thank you very much.

16:33My pleasure. Thank you so much.

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