'End the wars everywhere': Peace in Lebanon requires 'Palestinian state, normalisation for Israel'

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00:00Well, I'm pleased to welcome to the programme now to discuss the ceasefire Nomi Bar-Yakov.

00:05She's an associate fellow at Chatham House and she joins us now live from London.

00:10Good to speak to you today.

00:11Thanks for joining us.

00:13Thank you, Nadja, very much for having me on your show.

00:15Look, so far, largely speaking, this deal today is holding.

00:20Do you think it can continue to hold for the next 60 days?

00:23I think it's all a question of political power.

00:26And if there will be the political power, then it will hold.

00:30And it's not about the details of the ceasefire agreement itself.

00:34It's about whether Hezbollah and the Lebanese army manage to reach some sort of agreement

00:42whereby the Lebanese army is going to be allowed to take control over the south between the

00:47Litani River and the Israeli border.

00:50And it's a tricky relationship between the two.

00:52And Israel has made it very clear, abundantly clear that any minor violation, any violation

00:58of any kind.

00:59So if they said, if Netanyahu said on the record that if Hezbollah will try to, will

01:06start building a tunnel, if there's any digging, if there are any arms shipments that are addressed

01:13not to the Lebanese army, but to Hezbollah, or if any rockets are fired, that Israel will

01:18respond with full force.

01:19So I stress again, it really is a question of political will on the part of Israel, Hezbollah

01:26and what kind of relationship Hezbollah and the Lebanese army are going to strike.

01:32It's not going to be an easy one.

01:34And on that question of the Lebanese army, as you say, and as we saw in our report, Lebanese

01:40troops are supposed to deploy in areas along the border where Hezbollah previously was

01:46in control.

01:50Does the army have the capacity to do that?

01:54Because this is normally an area where we know Hezbollah fighters have operated and

01:58actually the Lebanese army hasn't particularly had a lot of influence there in the past.

02:03No, that's an understatement, Nadia.

02:06The Lebanese army has not been able to operate in the area at all between the Litani and

02:12the border with Israel, given that Hezbollah had full control.

02:17So now that Hezbollah has been dealt a significant blow, both military leadership has been decapitated

02:25and political leadership, and much of its military arsenal has been destroyed, many

02:32tunnels too.

02:33But Israel is going to monitor very, very closely.

02:36Israel has said that under the agreement they cannot attack unless they're retaliating for

02:42a violation, but they did say they will continue surveillance from the air.

02:47So I think the monitoring will be very, very, very close.

02:53And I would assume that there would be violations, and there always are violations of ceasefire

02:57agreements, and then comes into play the role of France and the U.S., and the question is

03:02what kind of monitoring mechanism is actually set up in order to deal with violations in

03:09a way that they will be dealt with in a non-military, non-escalatory fashion.

03:15And that's, again, another tricky area.

03:17So you've got both a tricky relationship between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah.

03:21I mean, I think the Lebanese army will find it very difficult to disarm Hezbollah, and

03:28under the agreement Hezbollah cannot be armed.

03:30The only arms can belong to the Lebanese army.

03:35And I foresee, I think a lot more investment is needed in that area.

03:40I think the Lebanese army is going to need significant help from the international community

03:45in order to ensure that it keeps the peace in the south and not Hezbollah.

03:53And on the role that the United States and France are now to play, of course, there won't

03:59be American or French troops on the ground.

04:01It is the Lebanese army and this UN force, UNIFIL, that will be in the south of Lebanon.

04:06But as you say, the United States and France will play a key role in implementing this

04:12deal, making sure it holds.

04:14Spell out for us what you understand that to be.

04:17Well, first and foremost, I'd like to say UNIFIL is the largest UN peacekeeping operation

04:21and it has not managed since 2006 to rein in Hezbollah.

04:29So Hezbollah has managed to rearm itself in an unprecedented fashion, literally under

04:36the eyes of UNIFIL.

04:37And I don't see that changing.

04:38I mean, I don't see, the mandate hasn't changed, 1701, the United Nations resolution that called

04:45on Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani and for the Lebanese army to deploy south.

04:51This is a 2006 resolution, which sort of comes on the heels of a previous resolution, a 1978

04:58resolution.

04:59It is going to be very difficult because, as you say, there are no troops on the ground

05:03and there are committees, there's a U.S.-French committee to which complaints are going to

05:08be filed.

05:09I reiterate, it's a question of political will.

05:11It's a question what Iran, Hezbollah, and are going to dictate because ultimately Iran

05:19calls the shots, Hezbollah has been dealt a blow.

05:23Iran and Hezbollah have asked for this deal.

05:26The deal was forced on Israel by the United States.

05:30Whether it will hold or not depends on that political will.

05:33As far as I can see, the monitoring system is weak.

05:35It is not a strong monitoring system.

05:38And the question really is, will the parties engage indirectly in political agreements,

05:47which we have seen before.

05:48We've seen it on the gas between, found in the Mediterranean Sea, between Hezbollah and

05:53Israel.

05:54Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon, so nothing really happens in the Lebanese

06:00parliament without Hezbollah's approval.

06:03And Lebanon is a very fragile country and it needs help.

06:07And I think it's very important that the French are present.

06:10Israel did not want any French presence, but Lebanon insisted on French presence.

06:16Israel insisted on U.S. leadership.

06:18And the relationship between the U.S. and France in 54 days, when President-elect Donald

06:25Trump is going to come in, is going to be very, very complicated.

06:29So a lot more effort needs to go in now, in these 54 days, into ensuring that this holds.

06:36Not only that it will hold for 60, now 59 days, 60 actually from today, but that it

06:41will hold long term.

06:44And a lot more needs to be done in order to make that a reality, in order to ensure that

06:49the cessation of hostilities turn into a ceasefire and ultimately, down the line, hopefully into

06:54peace.

06:55But for that, you need a Palestinian state, normalisation for Israel with other countries,

06:59but you need to end the wars everywhere, not just in Lebanon, principally in Gaza, with

07:04101 Israeli hostages that need to be freed.

07:08Still remaining, absolutely.

07:09I do want to ask you about that.

07:10Time is very tight, but just briefly then, where do you think this deal leaves the chance

07:14of an agreement for Gaza?

07:18My answer is very simple.

07:19It all depends on what kind of pressure the US is going to exercise on Israel, whether

07:24they'll exercise the same leverage that they exercised over Lebanon.

07:28Over Lebanon, over this ceasefire, they made it very clear that they will continue to withhold

07:33armed shipments to Israel unless Israel signs on the dotted line.

07:37And it was a take it or leave it.

07:39And the same has to be done for Gaza.

07:42Thank you very much indeed.

07:43Great to speak to you.

07:44Naomi Bar-Yacob talking to us there.

07:46She's from Chatham House in London.

07:48Thank you, Nadja.

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