Two-state solution: Do Arab countries lack 'clear vision'? Can Saudi Arabia exert pressure on Trump?

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00:00Let's look now on the program about the impact that Trump's return to power could have

00:05elsewhere in the world, starting in the Middle East. Now, Trump has a long history of support

00:10for Israel, which has conducted a devastating year-long war in Gaza.

00:16Our first report on this by Morgan Eyre.

00:20As President-elect Donald Trump took to the stage to officially declare his victory,

00:25he made a promise to put an end to conflict around the world.

00:30They said he will start a war. I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.

00:34This would include the war in Gaza. For these Palestinians,

00:38a new leader in the White House will not change their situation.

00:44Whether it is Trump or another president, nothing will change for the Palestinian issue.

00:48Unfortunately, Trump and the others support the Zionists.

00:55I see that nothing will change for us from the US presidents or other world leaders.

01:00The last of the current US presidents are all colonizers and are against us.

01:05Hezbollah's leader also shared their view that despite a new incoming administration,

01:10US policy will remain the same.

01:15We do not rely on the American elections, whether Harris wins or Trump wins.

01:19It means nothing to us. No, we will rely on the battlefield.

01:25However, a Trump victory is being seen in Israel as a positive development.

01:30Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump on his win,

01:35calling it history's greatest comeback and a recommitment to American-Israeli relations.

01:42During his first presidency, Donald Trump introduced a number of pro-Israeli policies,

01:48such as the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

01:52Under the Trump administration, Israel normalized its relations with several Arab countries.

01:57These were in part an attempt to counter the influence of Iran in the region.

02:02Despite his rhetoric,

02:03the president-elect has not provided details on how he would restore peace to the Middle East.

02:09Well, let's speak to Joe Macron on the program live now.

02:12He's a fellow with the Wilson Center's Middle East program.

02:17Hello to you and thanks for joining us.

02:21Let's be blunt about this. Is the win by Donald Trump also a win for Benjamin Netanyahu

02:28and a disaster for the Palestinians in Gaza?

02:33I mean, not necessarily. We cannot jump to conclusions quickly. But yeah, definitely.

02:37If you want to compare to his first term, where he basically

02:41gave the Golan Heights as a handout for Israel and Netanyahu, this is why they are concerned.

02:49But given what the Biden administration did and the silence in Gaza and otherwise,

02:55some people believe that maybe this is the second term of Trump.

02:59He's not going to be thinking about re-election and the new dynamics.

03:05Now he wants to give the impression that he's the president who ended the war.

03:09I think both the wars in Gaza and Lebanon are technically over.

03:15Now they are negotiating basically by fire.

03:18So Netanyahu preferred to sell this end of conflict to Netanyahu more than to Trump than Biden.

03:28But I think Netanyahu, I think Trump now, he has different calculation.

03:34He never forget that Netanyahu disregarded him for months when he was weak, when he was under

03:42investigation and everything. So I think the dynamic of the relation is not as strong as

03:46before. But definitely, I mean, Netanyahu sees an opportunity. But the dynamics have

03:52changed compared to four years ago. You say that the wars in Lebanon in

03:57your analysis and in Gaza are sort of approaching an end of some description.

04:04Does that mean, though, that with Trump coming into power in Washington,

04:08any kind of peace deal will be won effectively on Netanyahu's terms?

04:14I think I always argue that making like a peace deal now, it's going to just

04:22complicate the ceasefire. What's needed now, both in Gaza and Lebanon,

04:27a certain period of ceasefire and Gaza exchange of the hostages. And based on that,

04:33having like a transition period where there's enough time and space and calmer minds to

04:39basically have a long-term solution. The Biden administration made this mistake and basically

04:45complicated both the long-term solution and the ceasefire. Now on both fronts, I think both sides,

04:52the Israelis have no more targets to attack. Now they are just like trying to let time pass.

05:01And Hezbollah, for example, and Hamas, they are trying to use the battlefield to improve the

05:05negotiation position. So this is a vicious cycle going on for months now. And maybe a new

05:13administration now, because Biden, he has no willingness to do so until the last weeks only.

05:19So maybe Trump now can basically try to put this end using his relation with the Arab

05:27regimes and Israel maybe to, we'll see. It's going to be a big test for him.

05:32Indeed. And just on his relationship with Arab governments, at the end of Trump's last

05:37administration, he did have this role in normalising of relations between a number

05:42of Arab countries and Israel. That was the Abraham Accords. Do you think there'll be

05:47fresh focus on that when Trump comes back to power, particularly perhaps with Saudi Arabia?

05:54I mean, we have to remember the Gaza war started indirectly as a reaction to those Abraham Accords

06:01who felt, the Palestinians felt that the Arabs sold them basically to Trump without reaching

06:06a two-state solution. So now Saudi Arabia, because of what's happening in Gaza, is more cautious not

06:12to sign any normalisation with Israel before having at least some sort of two-state solution.

06:20So I think the Saudis now have a different calculation. They are not as much as obsessed

06:25with Iran as four years ago. Now they have good terms with Iran. They have a priority also on

06:30some sort of Palestinian recognition of a state before they start normalisation. So this is going

06:35to be as a pressure maybe on Trump moving forward. But the problem is Arab countries,

06:41they don't have a clear vision of what they want and it's going to be difficult basically

06:46if they don't have a clear vision.

06:48Just a final question for you. What do you think Trump's strategy will be when it comes to Iran?

06:57Well, that's the biggest big question now. We have no idea. He didn't give any indications.

07:03The last campaign he was attacking Iran on every day. Now he's been silent.

07:07There was some indication that he might be able to explore. The Iranians are definitely ready.

07:14Their president was elected recently, has a clear agenda of advancing talks.

07:20If he wants to resolve Gaza and Lebanon, he has to have some sort of indirect talks with Iran to

07:25basically help that. So if he chooses to confront Iran, the dynamics are going to be different

07:33because he's going to try to weaken Iran and Iran's already weakened with the proxies in Gaza

07:40and Lebanon basically retreated. But I think this is going to define his vision,

07:45his policy in the Middle East. We will not see his makeup of the cabinet before we assess.

07:51But I don't think he's going to be as confrontational with Iran as four years ago.

07:55He has a different approach now to the conflict with Iran.

08:00Joe Macron talking to us live there. Thank you very much indeed.

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