Dr. Gilbert Achcar: 'The balance of forces in Lebanon has been radically altered'

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00:00Now a two-year long political vacuum has come to an end in Lebanon. Yesterday

00:06Nawaf Salam was appointed Prime Minister four days after Joseph Aoun was named

00:11the country's president. The pair may now represent the start of a new chapter in

00:16Lebanese politics after Hezbollah lost significant influence in the wake of the

00:21war with Israel last year. While Salam has been speaking in Beirut this morning

00:27here's a little of his message to the Lebanese people.

00:35After the suffering, sorrows and pains as a result of the latest brutal Israeli

00:40aggression on Lebanon and because of the worst economic crisis and financial

00:45policies that made the Lebanese poor, time has come to say enough.

00:50Well let's speak live on the program now to Gilbert Ashkar. He's a Lebanese

00:55researcher and a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies in

01:00London. Good afternoon to you and thanks for talking to us today about these

01:04developments out of Beirut. Look there were celebrations yesterday evening

01:10when Salam was named Prime Minister. Does his appointment and that of Joseph

01:17Aoun as president represent the start of a new era now in Lebanon?

01:22Well that's obviously the case because that's a radical change in the situation.

01:29Both the new president and the new prime minister were considered to be a part of

01:39the pro-western alliance and they were opposed for this reason by Hezbollah and

01:49its own allies. And what is happening now is an expression of the radical change in

01:56the balance of forces in the country that resulted from one the Israeli

02:02onslaught on Hezbollah which has been extremely damaging to the organization

02:07and to the downfall of the Assad regime which was a major link between Hezbollah

02:15and Iran. So the balance of forces in Lebanon has been radically altered and

02:21this set of president and prime minister that we have is something

02:30that wouldn't have been possible just three months ago. Well let's talk a bit

02:35about those two men then Salam and Aoun because back in 2019 in Lebanon there

02:41were these major protests, people out of the street saying effectively Lebanon's

02:46entire political class was corrupt. Now that was before the port explosion that

02:52many people have linked with corruption as well. I'm interested in whether you

02:56think that Salam and Aoun have been tarnished by those kind of allegations

03:01of corruption or whether these two figures are seen really as rather

03:04different. No none of the two especially not Nawaf Salam is regarded as being

03:13corrupt or having had any connection with the corruption which is endemic in

03:19the country but the problem is not this or that individual it's the whole system

03:24and this is a very corrupt system that we have in Lebanon both the official

03:31system and the private sector the banking sector all of this is very

03:36corrupt and well it would take a huge lot of social and political change to be

03:44able to overcome this. I mean well we can give some the benefit of doubt to the

03:53new government but this won't be an easy task absolutely.

03:59Clearly significant challenges ahead I suppose one of them is Lebanon's economy

04:05do you think now it'll be easier for foreign investment to flow into Lebanon

04:11clearly that's desperately needed after that financial crisis a couple of years

04:16ago and as you say as well in the wake of the Israeli bombardments last year.

04:21No I don't think so for the time being and that translates in the fact that the

04:27Lebanese currency has not improved despite these changes well it might yet

04:34it might still improve a little bit but this is obviously I think the

04:41acknowledgement of the fact that the key problem in the country that the fact

04:47that you have a state within the state represented by Hezbollah and military

04:52force which albeit weakened after the Israeli onslaught is still a formidable

05:00force coexisting with the regular army all this problem is is not on its way to

05:11vanishing anytime soon and this people understand this and that that is what

05:17will hamper if you want any kind of economic revival of the country.

05:24That's interesting you think that Hezbollah still wields significant

05:29influence they remain powerful even though Hassan Nasrallah the group's

05:34leader was killed last year tell us a bit about why you believe they've

05:40now lost influence in Parliament as well so just explain to us why you think they

05:44still hold a significant sway.

05:46Well because of the fact that they are a military force and that's the key point

05:53they are not only a popular force and we know that you know how the I mean how

05:59Lebanon is a is a multi-sectarian country and Hezbollah is definitely the

06:07key force among the Shia community in Lebanon it is a formidable military

06:14force and it remains so and it is backed by Iran which even though it has

06:22suffered very clear defeat especially with the downfall of Assad in Syria

06:28remains a major regional player so all this is not going to vanish you know in

06:3624 hours and this complicates the situation.

06:41Gilbert Ashkar talking to us there live from SOAS in London thank you very much

06:46indeed sir for your time and for your analysis today.

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