00:00Let's turn back now to our top story and those talks aimed at finding a ceasefire for Gaza, notably that meeting in Washington between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
00:13To get more insight on it all, we can speak now to former Israeli ambassador to New York and foreign policy advisor to multiple Israeli prime ministers, Mr. Alain Pinkas.
00:22Thanks so much for your time and joining us here on France 24.
00:25Listening there to the U.S. President Donald Trump, he clearly hopes to be able to announce a ceasefire.
00:32How likely do you think that is? How close might we be getting?
00:37Oh, good morning, Eve. Likely, yes, because Trump wants this too much for it not to happen.
00:44On the other hand, there was an expectation that the ceasefire would be announced a few days ago.
00:50And then, perhaps more importantly, that it would be announced jointly by President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu while Netanyahu is visiting him in the White House today, Monday, this evening.
01:05Well, this afternoon in the U.S.
01:10That's not going to happen.
01:12Well, very likely not going to happen, because there seem to be several major stumbling blocks.
01:19And, you know, we can go into them if you'd like.
01:22But the important thing here, Eve, is to understand here, Eve, is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is doing this because he's under severe pressure from Trump, particularly after Trump joined in the Israeli attack on Iran 10 days ago or two weeks ago.
01:40But he himself is extraordinarily reluctant and uneasy with this agreement.
01:47He'd rather this agreement did not come to fruition.
01:53So Netanyahu then just trying to appease Donald Trump by looking like he's making the effort.
01:58I mean, what level do you think then of influence does Donald Trump actually have over Netanyahu?
02:02Well, he has enormous pressure.
02:05If he wants this to stop, he's going to pressure Netanyahu, and Netanyahu will stop this, because Israel's dependence on the U.S. is big, and it is only increasing, and it has increased exponentially during the war in Iran.
02:23But there's something perhaps a little broader here that our viewers need to understand, or I would be happy to detail.
02:33That is, this goes to the heart of how both sides define victory.
02:38While Israel claims that a victory means the destruction, the annihilation, and the removal from power of Hamas, for Hamas, a victory is defined as just standing up and being negotiated with.
02:53This is the part that Mr. Netanyahu cannot accept, because while the devastation in Gaza, as you're showing in the background, is immense, Hamas is still there.
03:04And if there is an agreement that is being signed, even though it's partial, and even though the ceasefire is limited to only 60 days, it is done with Hamas.
03:13And so that makes Mr. Netanyahu's task of declaring total victory, as he likes to call it, almost impossible.
03:23Secondly, and that too is an important issue, supposedly after the 60-day ceasefire and the partial exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners,
03:34the two sides are going to have to enter into a permanent ceasefire and a post-war political framework.
03:43The question is, is Hamas included there, which Israel cannot allow, or is Hamas not included there, which Hamas would obviously object to and refuse to proceed?
03:57Indeed. So we're looking at a very, very tenuous and precarious situation.
04:02Well, listening to Mr. Pinkas, it doesn't sound like the war will ever end.
04:07If you ask Netanyahu, it won't. It could end if President Trump decides that he's had enough, aside from the fact that he promised to end the war,
04:21but he also promised to end the war in Ukraine, and that didn't work.
04:27Mr. Trump has enormous levers of power and pressure over Mr. Netanyahu.
04:34If he wants this to end, it will end.
04:37Left to his own devices, Mr. Netanyahu would like to perpetuate the status quo, meaning no agreement, no post-war political framework,
04:48no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, just the status quo.
04:53And if that is the situation, then your question or the premise of your question, Eve, is absolutely right.
04:59And what then, you know, happens, all these Palestinian peoples?
05:03I mean, we already have an official debt toll at at least 57,000 Palestinians.
05:08Every day we're seeing women, we're seeing children being killed.
05:13You know, how does Israel continue to justify that?
05:16How does it continue to justify starving a civilian population, not letting baby formula into Gaza?
05:23Look, I can justify the war.
05:28I can justify why Israel needed to retaliate even massively.
05:32If you're asking me to justify why it's been prolonged for a year and a half and why it is still taking place,
05:39I find it extraordinarily difficult to justify.
05:42There are no political ends here.
05:44There are very few military objectives that remain, you know, a few is an exaggeration.
05:52There are almost zero military objectives.
05:55The only possibility that Israel has to actually remove Hamas entirely is to comprehensively occupy the Gaza Strip.
06:05And if you occupy it, you own it, meaning that the devastation that you're showing now, the starvation, the hopelessness, the medical aid that is in critical short supply,
06:19all of that will be Israel's responsibility.
06:22So Israel wants to have it both ways, not to occupy the Gaza Strip, because that's very difficult and burdensome, but leave the status quo.
06:33And so if you're asking me again, how do I justify the war going on, I cannot justify,
06:40because I think it has exhausted every legitimate purpose that it had, and it is just going on now for Mr. Netanyahu's political expediency and political interests.
06:50Indeed, a lot of people say it's only ongoing now because of the corruption trial that Netanyahu is facing.
06:56And we have heard Donald Trump allude to that, saying that he thinks that trial could be quashed.
07:00I mean, could that be the out that is on the table?
07:06If that happens, yes, it could be the out.
07:09But if that happens, it's right out of a mafia movie.
07:13I mean, a prime minister that's saying, cancel my trial, and so I will end the war.
07:19But if you don't cancel my trial, then I won't end the war.
07:23And I have a great buddy, a great friend in the White House who thinks the same.
07:29That would be a first in modern history for this kind of blackmail and extortion.
07:37Could it happen?
07:38Yes.
07:39You know, everything.
07:40This is the Middle East.
07:41I mean, we're talking about Netanyahu and Trump.
07:43Anything is possible.
07:44Indeed, in 2025, it certainly appears so.
07:47Mr. Alan Pincas will have to leave it there.
07:50But thank you so much for bringing us your analysis of the situation here on France 24.
