Netanyahu may not care if the coalition falters, former Israeli ambassador says

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00:00Let's get the analysis and bring in Alan Pincus. Alan Pincus is a former Israeli diplomat, writer

00:05and analyst. And Alan, thanks for joining us. I consult your work mostly in Haaretz newspaper

00:10these days, which is a very quality Israeli paper for those who aren't aware of that.

00:15And your analysis is always spot on. So thank you for being with us here on France 34. We

00:20appreciate your time, sir. It's never a good thing, I suppose, to think that you can write

00:27off Benjamin Netanyahu because he keeps rebounding back like a rubber ball, doesn't he? He's

00:31one of these kind of politicians. But at this point, with this resignation, it must seriously

00:37question the stability of his coalition. It does. But before that, I write for the

00:43Independent now in Britain rather than Haaretz. OK, thank you. That's OK. I should have told

00:51your producer. Back to your question, Mark. Look, for the benefit of our viewers, Israel

00:57has universal conscription. Every male, when he reaches the age of 18, every female, when

01:03she reaches the age of 18, go to three years and two year mandatory military service, respectively.

01:10This travesty has been going on since the 1950s when there was some kind of a political compromise

01:17that exempted 400, just 400 ultra-orthodox yeshiva students from military service. That 400

01:25mushroomed into tens of thousands. And this has been dividing Israeli society for a long time,

01:34an issue that became acute in the last year and a half once the war began. And the burden

01:40and the pressures on Israelis, reservists primarily, but also standing army, regular army

01:47soldiers, was immense and unrelenting and still goes on. So against this background, against, you know,

01:54came this crucible of the religious parties demanding in the middle of a war, Mark, to enact

02:01into law their exemption, to codify their exemption, their basic dodging of any kind of responsibility

02:12to the country where they do. Don't forget, inside the government, making decisions on a war in Gaza

02:18and a war in Iran, sit ultra-orthodox ministers who castigate the state of Israel and refuse to serve

02:29in the military. So now push came to shove and they decided to resign. You asked a simple question.

02:37I went on for too long. There are three scenarios here. The first, you implied that this could rile

02:42the coalition. It was 68 strong out of 120 in parliament in the Knesset. It is now 61. There isn't

02:51one religious party called Shas. It is the Sephardic, the Oriental Jewish ultra-orthodox party. They have

02:5911 seats. So in the event that they leave, the coalition falters. That's one possibility,

03:05and it could happen. But there is the opposite scenario, in which they threatened, they sort of

03:14came through, came good on their pledge to their own voters, the ultra-orthodox. But now Netanyahu will

03:21relent. Now he will bend, and they will get what they want, and to hell with everyone else.

03:27And the coalition will be safe. There is a third possibility, and I'm not ascribing necessarily

03:34an order of likelihood to each. The third possibility is that Netanyahu doesn't care about this,

03:40because you have to understand the machinations of the Israeli parliamentary system. Even if the

03:45government falls next week, there needs to be a vote on the dissolution of parliament. Then an election

03:51needs to be set. Then it's 90 days. The 90 days need to go beyond the Jewish high holidays of October.

03:57So we're looking at November. Netanyahu may not care about, he may even welcome, and this is a

04:04hypothetical, he may even welcome an election in November until when his coalition is stable.

04:14The government cannot fall after it has, the parliament has been dissolved. So we're looking

04:20at three quite different scenarios here. And it's interesting, and you pointed this out,

04:24I think you're alluding to Bezalel Smotrich and Itmar Ben-Gavir, the two loudest voices perhaps

04:29for conflict. No.

04:31No, not necessarily. Smotrich and Ben-Gavir represent the ultra-nationalist right wing.

04:36Um, their voters, by the way, are extraordinarily angry and livid at the ultra-orthodox because their

04:43voters do serve in the military. Uh, both Smotrich and Ben-Gavir's parties, I mean, they united for,

04:50they united for technical reasons as a bloc ahead of the election in 2022. Uh, but they do head

04:58separate parties. Both their base support and base elector do serve in the military. So they are as

05:05angry at the ultra-orthodox as, as the secular Israelis are.

05:11In terms of what happens next for Benjamin Netanyahu, if it's not that issue, it's still,

05:16the issue of the hostages is really something that weighs very heavily, uh, on his coalition,

05:21heavily personally on him. Um, I'm not sure about that. I mean, it, it weighs heavily in the Israeli

05:27public. Yes. It weighs heavily on me. Yes. It weighs heavily on everyone I know. Yes. Does it weigh

05:33heavily on his coalition? There are no indications that it does. Uh, he had ample time in the last

05:39year and a half to cut a deal. Uh, there was a deal in May that he rejected. There was a deal in

05:44July of 2024, of course, that he rejected. There was a deal that was put in place in January, which

05:50Israel violated in March. Israel violated in March. And now everyone is talking about another deal,

05:56which, Mark, is also a partial deal. It is not a, a, a, a, a end of war permanent ceasefire,

06:03all hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, but only a 60-day cessation of hostilities

06:09and only 10 live hostages to be released, meaning that it's being kept, uh, the possibility of renewing

06:17the war, resuming the war is being kept alive because Netanyahu now come into, uh, uh, into

06:24the equation. Those two gentlemen, well, not gentlemen, but those two politicians that you

06:28mentioned, Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Benvir, they don't want a ceasefire. I'm not sure that Netanyahu

06:33wants a ceasefire, but they certainly don't want a ceasefire. So he's, he's, uh, um, he's in a,

06:39a, a, a cul-de-sac, if you will. He, there's no way out for him here, uh, which is why I raised

06:45the, uh, possibility number three, that he is actually, uh, uh, welcoming an election

06:51sometime in November. Alan Pinkus, we need to leave it there. There is so much more that

06:55you could say, I know, but thank you so much for giving us, uh, some light, uh, on this

06:59issue and, uh, breaking down those possible options as to what might happen. It is fascinating

07:04and an extremely important story. Alan Pinkus, uh, former Israeli diplomat, writer for the

07:08Independent nowadays. And, uh, as you heard, uh, someone with, uh, well, more than an insight

07:14into what is happening across the Middle East today. Alan, thank you very much for joining

07:17us here on France 24. Pleasure to have you on.

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