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Report
Seeking foreign policy win ahead of inauguration, incoming administration pressures Netanyahu on deal
FRANCE 24 English
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1/16/2025
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00:00
Well, going back to our top story, that ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, we're going
00:05
to get some more analysis on that with Jean-Luc Samane, a senior research fellow at the Middle
00:11
East Institute of the National University of Singapore.
00:14
Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
00:20
First of all, why did it take so long to reach this deal?
00:23
I mean, especially if this is the same agreement that was put on the table in May last year?
00:28
Well, it seems that the main game changer here was the upcoming American president,
00:37
the fact that you have a new White House team, and reportedly the Trump team put a lot of
00:44
pressure on Netanyahu to accept that deal.
00:48
So clearly we see here, I wouldn't say a victory of the Biden administration, rather a victory
00:54
of the Trump administration, which is preparing its inauguration with a first win at the level
01:02
of foreign policy.
01:03
What do you think then US-Israel relations will look like under Donald Trump?
01:10
Well, it's unclear, to be honest, in the sense that Trump didn't really talk much about the
01:17
Middle East during the presidential campaign.
01:20
The only big priority he seems to have for the Middle East is to address the question
01:24
of Iran, and in particular the nuclear program of Iran, which is much more advanced than
01:30
when he left the White House four years ago.
01:32
On that topic, there's clearly going to be a common interest from both Israel and the
01:38
US.
01:39
Beyond that, it's very unclear how Trump and his team wants to invest themselves, for instance,
01:45
in Lebanon, where you have also a major ceasefire process at the moment, and especially here
01:52
on Gaza, with regards to the reconstruction of Gaza, which is ultimately the big objective
01:58
of this ceasefire.
02:00
Well, Trump says he wants to rebuild, sorry, build on this deal rather to expand the Abraham
02:07
Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and a number of Arab states.
02:12
He's then looking to Saudi Arabia to join in on this.
02:15
But is this feasible?
02:16
I mean, Riyad says it wants Israel to commit to paving the way for a Palestinian state
02:21
before it can consider this.
02:24
It's conceivable in the sense that Saudi Arabia didn't reject the idea of normalization with
02:29
Israel.
02:30
It only insisted on the condition, which has always been a condition, about the process
02:37
towards a Palestinian state.
02:40
So if, let's say, if we assume that, for instance, we have a ceasefire in Gaza that leads to
02:46
this third phase, which is supposed to be this three to five year process where you
02:50
have the reconstruction of Gaza with a transfer of responsibility towards the Palestinian
02:57
Authority or to any type of Palestinian body, maybe, I say maybe, Saudi Arabia would be
03:05
in a position to accept a normalization agreement.
03:10
I wouldn't say it's far-fetched, but definitely there's going to be a lot of challenges before
03:15
Saudi Arabia admits that.
03:18
What about going forward with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza?
03:22
I mean, we're hearing from certain members of Netanyahu's cabinet that want Israel to
03:28
go back into Gaza after a brief truce.
03:32
What's your take on this?
03:34
That's the big unknown, because that's going to be the big question to follow in the next
03:39
two weeks.
03:40
Basically, from the Israeli side, this is rather a hostage release deal rather than
03:46
a ceasefire deal.
03:49
The question is, if Netanyahu actually commits to a permanent withdrawal of all IDF forces,
03:59
what does that mean for his coalition with far-right government ministers who made clear
04:04
that they would leave the government?
04:06
In that scenario, that could lead to the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition, and as a result,
04:13
elections in Israel.
04:14
It's very unclear how this will unfold.
04:19
So far, it's in a sense just like we saw in Lebanon, where there was a lot of speculations
04:27
about Israel removing its forces vis-Ă -vis Hezbollah.
04:33
Here we have to wait to see in coming days if Israel demonstrates its willingness to
04:40
remove its forces.
04:41
But it will happen in any case gradually.
04:43
I don't think we're talking about a sudden removal of those forces, and again, we have
04:49
to wait for the coming two weeks to see significant change in that field.
04:55
The third phase of this deal, although not particularly very vague at this stage, it's
05:00
set to lay out the reconstruction of Gaza after the war, but who could we see paying
05:05
for that eventually?
05:08
So far, what we know is that two countries, Qatar and Egypt, would be involved, which
05:15
is no surprise given their involvement in all the previous ceasefire attempts.
05:21
The United Nations would also be involved.
05:23
We can assume that there would be obviously a role for the United States.
05:28
Beyond that, I would expect other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
05:35
to be involved, because they expressed several times their desire to get involved.
05:41
The question is if those Arab states see Israel willing to accept the reconstruction of Gaza,
05:49
and in particular to have a Palestinian entity, an institution, maybe the Palestinian Authority
05:54
or something else, but something that would lead towards, let's say, Palestinian sovereignty
06:00
over the Gaza Strip.
06:02
And if there isn't an Israeli commitment to that, I suspect, unfortunately, that those
06:07
Arab states would seize their commitment to this third phase.
06:12
All right.
06:13
Jean-Luc Sena, thank you very much for that analysis.
06:16
We'll have to leave it there.
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