00:00Well, the White House said that Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether to take military action against Iran.
00:05Meanwhile, today in Geneva, foreign ministers from Britain, France and Germany are meeting their Iranian counterpart.
00:11The goal to try and de-escalate the crisis.
00:15These are the first face-to-face talks between Tehran and Western government since Israel attacked Iran one week ago.
00:20And they also mark the most significant European involvement in this crisis.
00:25Here's Iran's foreign ministers speaking ahead of that meeting in Geneva.
00:30In the current situation, as attacks continue, we are not seeking negotiations with anyone.
00:39I believe that as a result of this resistance, we will gradually see countries distancing themselves from the aggression carried out by the Israeli regime.
00:50And calls for ending this war have already begun, and they will only grow stronger.
00:55For more, we can speak to Dominique Tranquan, former head of the French military mission at the UN.
01:01Hello to you, Dominique.
01:03When we look at Europeans trying to have influence in this crisis, what leverage do they have?
01:10I think we are really on the game of good cop, bad cop.
01:18The good cop would be?
01:20Good cop will be the European waiting for the decision of Mr. Trump.
01:26The bad cop across the season.
01:28Either Mr. Trump will join the European or will follow Mr. Netanyahu, the bad cop who is fighting in Iran.
01:35It's really where we are currently.
01:38And there is a need to have both, because I'm pretty sure that the Iranian will not negotiate without the fierce attack on the soil of Iran.
01:50And when we listen to what's coming out of the White House, Donald Trump has set this fortnight, a deadline of two weeks, to determine if he'll strike Iran.
02:01Why that timeline?
02:02Is he buying time, or does it require some sort of like military moving around of U.S. assets?
02:08I think both.
02:10Mr. Trump is embarrassed by the position currently.
02:14He's the man who has been elected for peace, not for war.
02:17And if he's joining Mr. Netanyahu, he will be the president who has done war in Iran.
02:24So he's embarrassed by that.
02:26But at the same time, all the U.S. means are taking place around the area with the two options, defending Israel, of course, this is the current position, but also prepare an attack in Iran.
02:42And that's why probably President Trump is waiting also to see what will happen.
02:48Will the Iranian say they will negotiate or not?
02:52Because what is on the table currently, which is presenting today in Geneva, is stronger than the GCPOA.
03:00They are asking to stop the missiles program and also the proxy program, which anyway has been probably defeated by Israel.
03:14So I think that currently he's embarrassed by that because also in the Republican Party, you've got the two movements, isolationists or the people who want to join Israel.
03:25So probably he didn't expect that the operation will go so fast and so strongly.
03:34I mean, first speech of Mr. Trump was, OK, I gave them 60 days.
03:41We are on 61 day.
03:43So Mr. Netanyahu is right.
03:45But I think he was not really pleased about what was happening.
03:50And at least for the meantime, the Iranians saying they're not going to negotiate until Israel stops its attacks.
03:56So let's just play out the scenario.
03:58Let's say maybe the U.S. will carry out a strike on Iran.
04:02If it's going to do that, what does it have to do before that?
04:05How quickly could that strike occur?
04:08And what was the U.S. get in place before it carries out that strike?
04:1324 hours.
04:14In 24 hours, they can do that.
04:16Secure their military bases in the region that quickly too?
04:19Yes, secure the military bases.
04:21They are doing that already.
04:23And at the same time, preparing the bombing with the base of Diego Garcia, where the B-2 are already ready with the famous GBU-57.
04:37Nobody knows if it's really efficient against foremost.
04:42But anyway, the Israelis have already said that even without that, they will do it.
04:47So I'm really sure that the Israelis want to go up to the destruction of all these means, but also the change of regime in Iran, which is a big question.
05:00Because you can't have a change in a regime if you don't have the pressure inside, meaning an opposition who is ready to take on.
05:09Or part of the government of a guardian of the revolution, past Iran, who suddenly changed mind because they know that they will lose everything.
05:19So we don't know where we are on that side.
05:23We know that in military terms, Israeli plus American are able to destroy the nuclear power to weaken the government of the Mola.
05:34We don't know if there will be a change in the population wanting the Mola to go out.
05:41But also parts of the government, mainly the Pazlaran, will change sides because they know that they will lose many things.
05:50When you look at the nature of the Israeli targets in Iran, it feels like there's an American expression that the goalposts keep being moved.
05:59They said they want to remove the nuclear threat.
06:02But then we're seeing civilian targets being hit, civilian infrastructure.
06:06We saw that TV news station being hit.
06:08We see a hospital being hit.
06:11What do you make of the Israeli strategy?
06:14And is it clearly defined?
06:16They are also attacking police stations and security stations.
06:23I think it's a very difficult position to say we are here to help the resistance against the regime,
06:30but at the same time not push the Iranians to say, yes, but you are attacking our country.
06:36And even if we don't like the Mola regime, we can't accept fighting against our country.
06:44So it's a very difficult and narrow position.
06:48I'm struck by the fact that for the 48th last hour, suddenly you have got attacks coming from inside Iran, not only from Mossad, but also from Iranians.
07:01Iranians on the TV program, on radio networks, which are now attacking the Mola regime.
07:09So if that increase in the next day, it could be a good opportunity for changing the regime.
07:15But really, it's a big question mark for me.
07:18And of course, there's a risk in changing the regime that maybe hardliners win and something else fills that power vacuum.
07:26I'm not sure because the hardliners are strong as long as they are able to defend the country and still sit on the nuclear system.
07:39If they don't have the nuclear system, if they are not defending the country, they will be in a very bad position.
07:46All right, Dominic. Thank you so much. Dominic Troncan. Thank you.
