'For Netanyahu the issue is mostly about domestic politics, it's not about Israeli security'

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00:00Well, for more on this story, we can bring in Dr. Ori Goldberg, who's an expert in Middle Eastern

00:04studies. Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24. I want to start then by what you

00:10think will come out of this meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. Will the U.S. president

00:15pressure the prime minister to expedite a ceasefire deal?

00:20Oh, I have no doubt the U.S. president will try his best to force Netanyahu into a ceasefire deal.

00:26So there's a good chance that he might succeed. Trump is the only one who gets to tell Netanyahu

00:31what to do at this stage. Well, there's still this sticking point, though, of a full withdrawal

00:36of Israeli troops from Gaza, which is a key demand of Hamas. So does that mean that you think that

00:43one side will eventually cave on this? Well, here's the thing. For Netanyahu, the issue is

00:49mostly about domestic politics. It's not about Israeli security. He has to sell this deal as

00:55inevitable to his right-wing coalition. Or he might be courageous enough to gamble that if he makes a

01:02deal and calls for a snap election, he will win as the prime minister who fought the war but managed

01:08to bring the deal. In both cases, I think the political stakes favor Netanyahu's acceptance of

01:14the deal. Through 60 days of negotiations, Israel will, or Netanyahu will be able to water down the

01:21inconvenient truth of a full withdrawal, or perhaps demonstrate how his right-wing settler partners

01:30are irrelevant to whatever comes next. In any case, that's the Netanyahu timespan. He usually plans

01:38no more than a month ahead. So I have no doubt that he's thinking along these lines.

01:42Well, give us a sense then of what the mood is like among Israelis. I mean, the majority of them

01:49desperately want to see a return of hostages and an end to this war. His far-right ministers,

01:54as you mentioned, they seem to be in the minority here in wanting to continue fighting. But then on the

02:01other hand, Netanyahu is very unpopular still with allegations of corruption that he's fighting

02:06in court. So what do you think is really the temperature there in Israel?

02:13Let's separate the desire most Israelis have to see the hostages return to active support for the

02:20end of the war, especially if that end includes a full withdrawal and a sense that things are returning

02:25to the way they were before October 7th. So most Israelis certainly support a hostage deal. Most Israelis

02:34are not quite clear on what they see or what they support to the war itself. The right-wing settlers

02:43want to fight. Their power is limited, certainly in electoral terms. Netanyahu doesn't depend on them,

02:50and he will receive the backing of his opposition should he bring a deal or perhaps attempt to have

02:55it approved by the Israeli parliament because of this consensus. As far as Netanyahu's lack of

03:01popularity, again, he is unpopular. He is believed to be fighting for his life. He is believed to be

03:07using national resources to prolong his hold on power. But still, Israelis understand what they call

03:14the war in Gaza to be inevitable, to be something that ensures Israeli security. They supported Netanyahu's

03:21war in Iran despite its problematic and dubious achievements, if they can even be called that.

03:26And should Israelis be faced with the dilemma of who to vote for, there's no reason to assume they

03:33won't vote for the original rather than for a pale epigone, one of the opposition figures who will

03:38basically promise them the same thing, war upon war upon war.

03:42Well, you said the results of the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes were dubious there in Iran. But Netanyahu

03:50has obviously hailed this as a huge success. And his visit to Washington this Monday was expected to be

03:57largely a victory lap after those strikes. Do you think that that's the case?

04:03Oh, I really don't. I think his visit is one where Trump will be exerting personal one-on-one pressure in the

04:10Oval Office. The victory, I think, has already been demonstrated to be, again, dubious. It's not

04:16clear at all that Israel stopped the Iranian nuclear program or even set it back by, you know, more than

04:23months. So I actually think what's going to happen is that Netanyahu is finally going to get called into

04:29the principal's office and get a stern talking to. I don't think it's going to be a victory lap,

04:35even if the president and the prime minister in their joint press appearances stressed these attacks on Iran.

04:42That was certainly not what happened in the field.

04:45And otherwise, what else do you think we can expect to come out of this meeting? There's been talks about

04:49the possibility of normalizing ties with Lebanon, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Do you think that that's realistic

04:56at this time?

04:58I doubt we'll hear anything about Saudi Arabia. There are certainly negotiations with Lebanon and Syria.

05:05I don't think they've matured to the degree where both countries are ready to announce

05:09normalization. And anyway, I think any kind of normalization of Israel's relations with its

05:14neighbors or with other countries in the Middle East is heavily dependent on an end to the war in

05:19Gaza, which, as you said before we began our conversation, is the one thing Israel is not

05:24willing to commit to at the moment. Again, I think this will have to undergo the crucible of time.

05:30It will take 60 days. Israelis have a very short memory. Netanyahu will claim he has to accept this

05:37deal. His right partners will be angry, but will have to do their own electoral math if they don't

05:42stick with him. They haven't got any hope of being influential after the next election. So a lot of

05:48things can happen in 60 days. Netanyahu is a very, very competent political manipulator.

05:54I believe he's counting on that length of time to get this deal through, but also to maintain his

06:02support. All right, Dr. Ori Goldberg, thank you very much for your analysis. We'll have to leave it

06:06there. Thank you for having me.

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