'Trump did not have the desire, the courage, or the will to tell Israelis not to start this war'

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00:00For more diplomatic analysis, we're going to speak now to Barbara Slavin,

00:04distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and lecturer in international affairs

00:08at Georgia Washington University in Washington, D.C. Professor Slavin, thank you very much for

00:14joining us today. So to get started, I mean, isolationism was among Donald Trump's biggest

00:20campaign promises, if not the biggest from a foreign policy perspective. That's to say,

00:24not only ending ongoing wars, but also refusing to get involved in future ones. That is how

00:29MAGA Republicans distinguish themselves from neoconservatives. So how do you explain such

00:34a radical shift over the past couple of weeks? You're right. There is real consternation in

00:41MAGA world over what appears to be unfolding. You know, the only analysis that I can come up with

00:48is that Trump did not have the desire, the courage, the will to tell the Israelis not to start this

00:57war. He alone could have done that. And instead, when the CIA told him that the Israelis were preparing

01:06and were ready to begin these attacks, he did not stop them. So one has to ask whether he is as much

01:15of an isolationist as some of his supporters thought. You know, he has this habit of sort of putting his

01:23finger into the wind and seeing which way things are going. And initially, you may remember Marco

01:29Rubio, the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, said that the United States was not party

01:35to these attacks. And then a day or so later, when the U.S. saw that the attacks were quite

01:42devastatingly effective, Trump pivoted. And all of a sudden, he seemed to be all in. And now he says,

01:49we are over the skies of Tehran, when as far as I know, American warplanes are not over the skies of

01:55Tehran. So if something happens, which were which was to, you know, change the direction of this war,

02:02perhaps Trump would pivot yet again. It's, it's certainly a very disconcerting way to make foreign

02:09policy. As we speak, the U.S. apparently has not made the decision yet to help the Israelis bomb

02:16Fordo, which is where U.S. B-52 bombers and 30,000 pound bombs would be would be needed.

02:25There is, you know, a tremendous debate going on, I think, in Washington, among Trump supporters,

02:32and also others, people in Congress who are introducing resolutions, demanding that there be

02:38authorization for the United States to get involved in a third Middle East war. So we are all on edge.

02:46I'll tell you, frankly, every night I go to bed, not knowing what I'm going to wake up to in the

02:51morning. I mean, it's indeed a lot riding then on what essentially kind of boils down to a whim,

02:57in a sense, from from Donald Trump. Like you said, kind of putting his finger in the wind to decide

03:01which way to go. We know that there's a lot to lose from the United States getting involved in a

03:06third war. But what does Donald Trump, either as an individual or as the leader of the current

03:10Republican Party, have to gain from a domestic or foreign perspective by getting directly involved

03:16in this war, not on America's behalf, but but on Israel's behalf, in a sense?

03:22Well, look, Iran is a 46 year old problem for the United States, as well as Israel. The Islamic

03:28Revolution was fought against the United States, against Israel. You may remember that the previous

03:34regime in Iran was closely allied with both the United States and Israel. So, you know,

03:40U.S. and Iran have come to blows in the past, but not on the Iranian mainland. During the Iran-Iraq

03:46War of the 1980s, the U.S. sunk most of the Iranian Navy, but not on the mainland. And so this would be

03:55crossing a Rubicon for sure. The Israelis were not so virulently anti-Iran during the 1980s. They were

04:03much more fearful of Iraq during that time. But after Iraq was defeated in the 1991 Gulf War,

04:11the Israelis began to focus on Iran and Bibi Netanyahu, in particular, as an existential threat

04:17to Israel. Now, remember, Israel has at least 90 nuclear weapons and a second strike capability.

04:24So this whole campaign is about Israel retaining nuclear primacy, the nuclear monopoly in the Middle

04:32East. Israel is already extremely strong, as we've seen. It's decimated Iran's partners around the

04:39region. And now it feels that it can go in for a final blow. But we don't know how this is going

04:46to end. And your correspondent was talking about the lack of an exit strategy for Gaza. Where is the

04:53exit strategy for this war with Iran? I don't see it.

04:56That brings me to a final question for you, Professor Slavin. Iran's supreme leader today

05:01vowed no mercy for Israeli leaders. We just heard his first public remarks moments ago. He remains

05:07clearly defiant. But as you said there, both the Iranian government and its regional allies are very

05:13weak right now. Does Tehran have any cards to play?

05:16It certainly does. It's a very large country of 90 million people. It's three times the size of

05:25Iraq. It has more missiles that it can launch against the Israelis. It can close off the Strait

05:31of Hormuz and block oil from coming out, thereby ensuring that the price of oil will go up over $100

05:37a barrel, which would have, of course, a tremendous impact on the international economy, on all of us.

05:43It can activate the remaining militias that it still has influence with and that still has some firepower

05:53by attacking Americans in the region, which it has not done so far, particularly the 40,000 Americans

06:00at various bases around the Middle East. Now, that would be a very drastic step for Iran. It would

06:06certainly bring the United States into the war. So I think that would be the last resort. But the other

06:12two, we can certainly expect that Iran will continue to fire missiles as long as Israel is attacking Iran.

06:19Barbara Slavin from George Washington University, thank you very much for joining us on France 24 today.

06:26You're welcome.

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