Ceasefire 'just a bandaid', expert says as Israel and Iran seem to agree to truce

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00with us tonight a fragile peace across the Middle East that's to say Israel and Iran have stopped

00:04shelling each other Iran declaring an end to what are described as 12 days of imposed war

00:09Israel says it'll now refocus its military action on the Gaza Strip we'll have more on that later

00:15the US president Donald Trump is declaring the ceasefire or rather declared the ceasefire

00:21Tuesday 5 a.m. GMT Israel confirmed that it agreed at 6 a.m. and Iran had indicated that

00:27it would respect a ceasefire if and when Israel stopped bombing them but just two hours later

00:33Israel's military said it detected missiles coming at them from Iran so Israel's defense minister

00:39Israel Katz ordered a resumption of strikes on the Iranians condemning what he called a complete

00:44violation of the truce this Wednesday evening both Israel and Iran as far as we know signaling an end

00:51to the bombing the damage has been done it all started June the 13th Friday let's bring in now

00:58for more analysis of the wider implications of this story from Lancaster University in northwestern

01:05England Simon Maven joins us professor of international politics and Middle East studies

01:10Simon good evening to you how do you read the situation right now

01:13I think it's precarious I think it's it's slightly less worrying than it has been over the past 12 days

01:22or so but I do think that for now this is just a bit of a band-aid it doesn't resolve any of the

01:28substantive issues that have caused this friction caused these points of difference between Israel

01:34and Iran and indeed between the United States and Iran and some Iranian news outlets are already

01:40reporting that there are drones flying over parts of Iran right now that have mobilized air defenses

01:46so it is a precarious moment but for the minute the conflict appears to have been paused

01:54conflict pause but Iran and the US of course have been at loggerhead since 1979 of the overthrow of the

02:01Shah yes of course it has all developed and it's all well documented the events have happened since then

02:06Israel becoming a kind of bullock a kind of barrier uh supported by the US against what is seen as

02:12Iran Iran's attempts to push towards uh the the Mediterranean Sea Iran of course with its proxies

02:19Hezbollah Hamas the Houthis all there ready to threaten it is as you say very precarious so many different

02:26things could go wrong here yeah exactly I mean I must I must pull you back further into history if

02:33I may to 1953 and an American British-led coup d'etat that toppled the region's first democratically

02:39elected prime minister Dr Mohamed Mozadek so there's a real deep entrenched anger uh concern suspicion

02:49at the United States by virtue of its actions in 1953 by virtue of what happened in 1979 and by

02:56virtue of what's happened over the past 12 days with Donald Trump pulling Iran into nuclear into

03:02talks about its nuclear program only for Israel to begin a bombardment of Iranian uh strategic sites

03:08and then uh a few days afterwards calling for Iran to restart diplomatic talks and suggesting that

03:16it would have a two-week window to do so only to then bomb the three prominent uh nuclear facilities

03:22over the weekend so there's a lot of anger there's a lot of suspicion and I think getting serious long

03:30term talks started is going to be very difficult because there's a lack of trust on the Iranian side

03:36with good reason I would add but then on the Israeli side and the American side as you say there's this

03:41long and complex history of relations with groups like Hezbollah groups like Hamas the Houthis

03:47um the Hajj the Shabi in Iraq all of whom have launched uh violent attacks on Israel on the United

03:54States um and and contributed to a more precarious unstable and indeed violent region so it is a

04:02worrying time even though the conflict seems to have paused. Sorry Simon I didn't mean to cut across

04:07you there you're making a very good point as always um what I was going to add is that I spoke with

04:11Iran's ambassador last week I was invited to a special briefing for the press here in Paris and

04:15we didn't learn a great deal but we did learn of course is something I suppose we knew Iran will not

04:20surrender and I'm wondering about this idea of regime change which Trump says now he's not uh aiming

04:26towards it's hard to believe that that's the truth though isn't it surely the United States

04:30Israel are looking to have some kind of change in who is in charge in Iran. Well I think it's it's

04:36difficult to know there's a lot about this whole situation that we just don't know there's a lot

04:41of speculation of course there's speculation about what types of strikes would would be undertaken on

04:45Iran how Iran might respond but also about the longer term strategic goals of both Israel and the

04:52United States. So there's been a sort of a hinting and intimation of regime change from the U.S.

05:00Benjamin Netanyahu went on TV and said well where regime change is a possibility but it's not our

05:05direct strategic goal but to even hint at that to openly acknowledge it kind of suggests that that was

05:12perhaps something that they were aspiring to in the in the longer term and strategically that sort of

05:18makes sense that they feel threatened by Iran and so if their their threat perceptions are such that

05:24a nuclear Iran poses an existential threat and all of these relations with with transnational groups

05:29or quote-unquote proxies pose a threat then maybe in their eyes a regime change is deemed the best way

05:35of ensuring security but that is in breach of various clauses of international law and it poses all manner

05:42of strategic political and diplomatic problems for uh for the Middle East for the United States for the

05:48West and for the rest of the world. Simon you told us just a few moments ago about drones over Iran it's

05:52just popped in front of me now uh on the wire service Iranian air defense has activated against

05:57drones in Tabriz that's coming from Iranian media reports so Simon on the money as always um

06:03Russia's role that's something I'd like to ask you about because you know Iran's foreign minister uh

06:09has been over to see Vladimir Putin I mean you know face to face with the main man in Moscow

06:15clearly seeking some kind of support um we didn't get any sense from what happened afterwards that

06:21that support was there Russia's kind of strategic ambiguity Russia of course has got its problems in

06:27Ukraine it's it's trying to make up ground there and of course that would compromise Trump in a funny

06:32way wouldn't it given his his seeming friendship with Vladimir Putin well there's a lot of ambiguity

06:40there's a lot of uncertainty about Donald Trump's relationship with Vladimir Putin and his engagement

06:45with Russia his engagement with Ukraine of course we saw that really fiery confrontation in the

06:50in the Oval Office between Trump and Vladimir Zelensky so there's a lot of a lot of ambiguity as you

06:57say there a lot of confusion and then adding Iran into the mix really does make it incredibly challenging

07:03to to to wade through the complexity because we know that uh that Iran and Russia have been close

07:10they're not necessarily um allied and ideologically um aligned if you will Russia had got a long history

07:19of engaging in Iran and violating Iranian sovereignty dating back to the second world war and indeed long

07:24before that so there's a degree of suspicion there of course and I think that there's also a bit of

07:30frustration that whilst uh Russia provided military support to to uh the former president of Syria Bashar

07:37al-Assad along with Iran of course Iran also provided support Russia has not given the same level of military

07:44support to Iran which might have have helped to deter either Israeli attacks or indeed American attacks

07:52and yet Iran has provided drones and other types of technology for Russia to use in Ukraine so there's

07:58perhaps a bit of a military dynamic there but I think perhaps that the main reason that the visit

08:04the official visit went to the Kremlin was to get diplomatic cover and to shore up that type of uh

08:11ballast on the world stage if you will because the spectre of Russia is still a powerful spectre

08:16even if it is bogged down in a war in Ukraine. Simon Mabin always a pleasure speaking to you and thank you

08:22for the analysis which brings such light to what is a very complex situation facing us all here

08:28emanating from the Middle East and obviously touching people all over the world. Simon Mabin

08:32professor of international politics and Middle East studies at Lancaster University. Simon once again

08:38thank you very much for joining us here in France 24.

08:43you

Category

Transcript

Recommended