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00:00Let's get some analysis of what this means in terms of the continuation of a long-distance war
00:05and the type of ammunition needed to do just that.
00:08Rosemary Kalanich joins us.
00:10She's director of the Middle East Programme at Defence Priorities, a think tank.
00:15Thank you, Rosemary, for being with us here in France 24.
00:17We appreciate your time.
00:18Give us your assessment of where we are at right now in this war between Israel and Iran.
00:26Thank you so much for having me, first of all.
00:28Well, we're at a very perilous and dangerous point in this war.
00:33And, of course, as you mentioned already, there are a lot of questions in the United States
00:37as to whether the United States might be joining the war with Israel against Iran or not.
00:44And, you know, that remains to be seen.
00:46The president seems to be signaling today that he's giving himself a longer runway
00:50than most people in Washington expected.
00:53I think many of us have been bracing over the past few days for an announcement sort of imminently
00:58and now it looks like he's putting off the decision or at least reserving the right to do so,
01:03which does seem to be, in my view, a good idea.
01:06Is he perhaps hoping that in some way, shape or form, this war will work itself out in between time
01:14without the U.S. getting involved in that sense?
01:19Not so much, I think, that the war will work itself out.
01:21But I think that Trump is still hopeful to work out a deal with Iran
01:25to come to an agreement on limiting their nuclear program,
01:29eliminating any chance that Iran could get a nuclear weapon in the future.
01:34You know, when this attack first happened, I initially thought that the prospects for a deal were very low.
01:40But right now, Iran is really in a bind.
01:43They're under a lot of pressure.
01:44They're under a lot of stress.
01:45They're not able to compete with Israel militarily.
01:50And so it still could be the case that if Iran—I'm sorry, if President Trump is deft in his diplomacy
01:56and if Wyckoff is deft in his diplomacy, that they could potentially convince the Iranians to make a deal.
02:04And at the same time, the bigger challenge, I think, is restraining the Israelis if Iran does make a deal.
02:10I think Trump is still very much looking for that option instead of getting involved in a kinetic offensive capacity.
02:18Indeed, this conflict has been a long time brewing.
02:21We could say since 1979, perhaps when the Islamic regime was set up, the Shah was overthrown.
02:26And clearly, between then, there's been this real enmity between the United States and Iran, of course,
02:32put Israel in the middle of that on the side of the U.S.
02:34It becomes a bollock against the Iranian interests.
02:37The rest, of course, is history.
02:39In terms of the firepower, Ruiz, I'd be interested to get your take on that situation
02:44because clearly we know about Iran's long-distance missiles.
02:48Equally, we know about the backing that Israel has had year on year on year from the United States
02:53in terms of beefing up its military.
02:55And that has been enhanced even more during its conflict in Gaza.
03:00Where do we stand there?
03:01I mean, clearly, we're not at egality.
03:03Which side has the advantage, in your view?
03:05By far, Israel has the advantage.
03:09I mean, Israel is a nuclear weapons state.
03:12Israel has a nuclear deterrent.
03:14That's going to put a limit, presumably, on the amount of retaliation that Iran is willing to risk against Israel.
03:21The same is true of the United States.
03:22The United States also has a massive nuclear deterrent and a conventional deterrent.
03:26That, I think, is one reason that Iran has been restrained so far
03:30and has not attacked American targets in the region.
03:34But I do think that that could change if the United States enters the war.
03:39Militarily, it's not clear whether Israel can destroy all of the nuclear sites on its own,
03:46including the site at Fordow.
03:47There's a huge controversy about that.
03:50Some analyses have suggested that maybe they'd be able to do it.
03:53Others say not so much.
03:55That's really where Israel seems to be looking to the United States to get an assist.
04:00But it's not clear that the United States can entirely do it.
04:03But then there's also the bigger problem, which is even if you destroy Fordow,
04:09and even if you destroy many of the sites,
04:11the Iranian government has been enriching uranium for 20 years.
04:14They know how to do it.
04:15And you're only setting back the program.
04:17You're not necessarily destroying it in any sort of final capacity.
04:21And, of course, if the United States gets involved,
04:24there are possibilities for retaliation against the United States troops in the region,
04:28which could lead to an escalation of the conflict.
04:31Any time that American troops are hurt or killed abroad,
04:35there's a lot of pressure in Washington for the U.S. to get more and more involved.
04:40Rosemary, I was at a briefing last night with Iran's ambassador at the embassy here in Paris,
04:44a special briefing for journalists that was invited along.
04:46On that issue of enrichment, we asked that question, you know, why?
04:51Why? How can you justify it? What is it about?
04:54And he said that it's not about weapons. It's about better producing electricity.
04:58Would you think that is a plausible thing to say?
05:01Or would you think that basically it is not quite the truth?
05:03I think the truth is somewhere in between.
05:08I think the truth is that Iran, if they, Iran has enriched uranium up to highly enriched uranium levels,
05:16up to 60 percent maximum, at least, that we know of.
05:19And there are not civilian uses for that uranium.
05:22However, they have done that for years now, and they've not progressed from 60 percent to 90 percent.
05:2790 percent is the sort of critical threshold where uranium can actually become usable in a nuclear device.
05:34So to me, I see this as signaling, very high stakes and potentially reckless signaling by Iran to say,
05:41look, you know, we're using our nuclear enrichment program as a bargaining tool.
05:46We want sanctions lifted on Iran, right?
05:49They have all kinds of asks in that in that way.
05:52They want to be reintegrated in the international community, et cetera, et cetera.
05:56And so, you know, I think it's understandable that they would want enrichment.
06:01I think that it's a high stakes gamble for them to enrich beyond civilian capacity.
06:06But I think the key feature here is that Iran could have enriched to 90 percent a long time ago, and they have not.
06:13They've not done that.
06:14So I think that they're trying to signal that they're willing to make a deal.
06:17I think if Iran truly wanted nuclear weapons, they would have pursued them already, and they have not done that.
06:24So I see a lot of, you know, high stakes maneuvering.
06:27It's not just about civilian energy.
06:29Clearly, that's not just it.
06:30But it doesn't mean that they're bent on getting a nuclear weapon.
06:34And in fact, I think that they would rather not have one, at least not till now.
06:38And hopefully that remains the case.
06:40Rosemary, thank you very much indeed for your analysis.
06:42It's much appreciated.
06:43Rosemary Kalanich, Director of the Middle East Programme at Defence Priorities Think Tank.
06:48Thanks for joining us here, France 24.
06:50We appreciate your time.

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