Indigenous nuclear programme: Iran has 'means and will' to rebuild it from mining to enrichment

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00:00I can now bring in Danny Citrinowicz, non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East

00:05programs and former head of the Iranian Strategic Branch of Israeli Intelligence.

00:10Thank you so much for joining us on the program. In barely three days, Donald Trump has gone from

00:15supporting and siding with Israel lock, sep and barrel, one can argue, to telling

00:20the Israeli Prime Minister to stand down. Will Benjamin Netanyahu listen?

00:24Well, I don't think he has a choice. But I think that we have to remember one important

00:31thing, that first and foremost, the American administration was interested from day one

00:37to reach an agreement with Iran. Even when Donald Trump gave a green light to Israel to start

00:44a commencing attack against Iran, he was hoping that after this attack, at the end of the day,

00:49Iran would turn back to the negotiating table. He doesn't want to see a regime check in Iran.

00:53He doesn't want to see the U.N. forces highly involved in this operation. They did Fodou.

00:59He thinks that also the bombing Fodou will bring Iran back to the negotiating table, weakening,

01:04and thus they'll forego their enrichment ambition. So I think in that regard, we have to remember

01:09that Trump was all alone in the same line. Israel is the one that actually tried to see how they

01:15can transform the goals of the operation of the campaign from limiting or preventing the

01:22nuclear and missile threat on Israel to regime change. And I think what Trump said today,

01:26President Trump said today, is unimportant. He said to Israel, I have no interest in doing other

01:32stuff. I have been interested in one important thing, reaching an agreement with Iran, stop the

01:36war, and continuing to build the relations between Israel and Iran itself. So I think in that regard,

01:43Israel has to take that into consideration and also to look into the future. I don't know what

01:48happened when the Iranians will build the capabilities, but I don't see automatic green light

01:52from President Trump to Israel to strike in Iran in the future.

01:55What war goals? The Israelis said they had two war goals when it came to this operation, was to

02:01take out Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities. Have both of those been achieved?

02:07No, we cannot say that they were achieved. Because look at the, first on the nuclear side, definitely

02:15Israel has achievements, attacking the Transat for those sides together with the U.S. side,

02:21attacking courage, the manufacturing factory of the centrifuges, definitely in terms of bombing

02:27Isfahan and the conversion line. So we have achievements. And but, and this is a big, big but,

02:32the Iranian program is indigenous one, meaning that the Iranians build it. They have ability

02:37to build the program, rebuild it from the mining to the enrichment. So it will take time, but

02:43they have the ability to do so, and they have the mean, and also they have the will to do so.

02:47In terms of 90 percent enrichment, we have to remember that we don't know where the stockpile

02:51is, and certainly the final kilo for 60 percent. And theoretically speaking, the Iranians can

02:57enrich now to 90 percent. So the one other thing, yes, Israel have achievements, but we cannot destroy

03:03the enrichment program that lasts for 25 years. So when Israel say we destroyed it, or some say

03:09destroyed it, I think they got it wrong. Yes, achievements were definitely, yes, a setback,

03:13but definitely not a destruction.

03:15Danny, the Mossad has assets on the ground. The Israeli venue where the supreme leader was. So where

03:21is this enriched uranium gone?

03:26That's an important question. I think it's also connected to, again, to a negative side

03:30of the Israeli attack. As I said, we have benefits, but one thing that we lost is certainty with the

03:36use of the IAEA. And I think that it's extremely important to highlight that. Iran facilities were

03:44under inspection of the IAEA inspector regime. They knew where the rich uranium is in every step of the

03:54way. When you don't have this kind of inspection regime, you have to have Intel to know where it is.

04:00And again, Intel has a great Intel capabilities, especially in Iran, but we don't know what you

04:07don't know. It's never 100 percent. Now, it's also highlighted the fact that the need to return

04:12back to some sort of political agreement that, at the end of the day, will help or will force

04:18Iran to work with the IAEA. Why it's so important? Because we have to regain this trust. And without

04:23that, without understanding where the uranium is, there will be a lot of questions on the Iranians

04:29and what they're planning to do with this in vitro uranium. So the one and the other thing,

04:33I'm not sure that we know. But this is another indication, another need that will force the side

04:39to regain some sort of a political solution, because only ceasefire won't help us solve the

04:45major problems that we have with Iran, mainly the enrichment and the missile capabilities.

04:49So political solution, especially regaining the inspection regime on Iran is a crucial step in

04:56order to better understand what is happening now in the Iranian nuclear sites.

05:00And what about the U.S.'s use of those bunker buster bombs on sites like Fordow and other

05:06nuclear sites in Iran? Without the IAEA, will we know how effective those bombs were?

05:15Definitely. Now we are depending on two main things. A, the Iranian reports that, of course,

05:21they will downplay and say nothing happened, minor damage.

05:24Yeah. And the one other thing is the intel information that we don't know if we have

05:31the capability to know based on the intel or what is happening at all the enrichment sites. So

05:37definitely it's a problem, because at the end of the day, the Iranian nuclear program was fast,

05:42was robust. And you want to know what you want to know, it's very hard to use only intel means.

05:50The IAEA was an important tool. It provided every three months with a complete report on the Iranian

05:56nuclear program. Actually, Israel used this report by saying that it's an indication that Iran or

06:02Russian for a bomb. They used the last report that the IAEA published before the Board of Governors'

06:09meeting. So I think it's definitely a problem. And it's kind of the fact that in every war,

06:15we have to have what we call the finishing act of political solution. Without that,

06:20will remain with questions. And I'll give you more than that. For example, assuming that Iranians

06:26want to build those capabilities near Ataz or near Pardo, we have to have intel because we won't

06:32have any other ability to know that because we don't have inspection on the ground. So for the

06:37court situation, to know what the enrichment capabilities are, but also towards the future,

06:41political solution that embedded the IAEA is crucial.

06:45But Danny, the U.S. president was negotiating with Iran. He was negotiating a nuclear agreement,

06:52just like the JCPOA, which he walked away from after Netanyahu influenced him and he walked away,

07:01he ripped away that nuclear deal. Where is Iran's nuclear facilities were being inspected by the likes

07:07of the IAEA, what have you. And now we have Israel that 12 days ago went ahead, scuttled that diplomatic

07:14process that was underway with Washington. Now we don't know what happens with Iran's nuclear program.

07:20Will it go back to a negotiation with Washington? Will its nuclear program go rogue? And it's essentially

07:28a very risky bet that Netanyahu has taken, hasn't he? Definitely a risky one. Now I have good news and

07:36bad news. The good news is connected to the fact that the Iranians are interested in turning back

07:42to negotiation. They said that from day one. They said, once Israel will stop launching missiles at

07:47us, we'll turn back to negotiation. And they will need to do so despite the fact that they're feeling duped

07:52by the U.S., by Israel and by IAEA and specifically Chairman Gross. But the bad news are that I don't see

08:04I don't see any change in the Iranian position regarding enrichment on their soil. Despite everything

08:10that they endured, all the strikes, all the attack, the Iranians are still insisting on enrichment in

08:18Iran itself. So negotiation with the U.S. can be harsh. And you can find yourself in the same point

08:24that we were before Israel started the attacks. So without, of course, the inspection or anything,

08:29but with significant damage to the Iranian nuclear side. So we don't know how things will develop.

08:35But there were people who thought that because of the attack, Iran will surrender or will

08:41capitalize to the U.S. originally demand. I don't think this is the case.

08:45But I mean, in 2018, when that JCPOA deal was in place, they were enriching at much,

08:50much lower levels than they were right now. I want to play some sound bites of ordinary Israelis

08:58reacting to the ceasefire agreement. Take a listen to what they are to say.

09:01I hope this this ceasefire is a new beginning for Israel and for Iran and for the Middle East.

09:08And we're really hopeful that it holds together.

09:11This will be the end for the next, let's say, 20, 40 years. It will be great.

09:18Unfortunately, I don't believe that it's going to be like this. And we will see soon, hopefully.

09:24I hope that it will last long and it will lead eventually to peace.

09:34That's all I think. And I wish us luck and all of us.

09:42Danny, there's a mix of hope and skepticism after that truce deal announcement.

09:48Now, one of the – it wasn't a goal, it was something that was being threatened – was regime change

09:54by the Israeli side. Donald Trump also mentioned it. Now, in the last few minutes, he's backtracked on that.

10:03Evin prison, the gates were targeted yesterday, a facility that houses foreign nationals and

10:09Iranian dissidents. Those prisoners have been taken away to a different location.

10:14Has this unstated war goal from the Israelis been shelved or is that always going to dangle in the air?

10:22Well, again, it's a good question. I think that we have to remember that Israel started the war with

10:28those two targets that you mentioned before in terms of the nuclear and the missile capabilities of Iran.

10:33But suddenly, during the war, we discovered a new plan or target that Israel had,

10:38toppling the regime or weakening the regime, even talking about eliminating Supreme Minister Khamenei.

10:45I think that it's a – the ceasefire now is a wake-up call to the state of Israel,

10:51and especially what Donald Trump, President Donald Trump said just a couple of hours ago.

10:55At the end of the day, even if people think that replacing the regime in Iran is the good thing

11:00or the best thing to do, a positive step, there is no support for this step, not from the

11:07regional countries, especially in the Gulf states, not from the U.S., as we see right now,

11:11and even not from European countries. I think there is understanding that, A, there is no viable

11:18opposition that can replace the regime. The regime is quite strong even after these attacks.

11:22So we have to, what we call, live with the beast, meaning that we have to reach a sort of

11:27settlement with it. The problem that we have is that the ceasefire is very unstable. We saw what

11:32happened a couple of hours ago, but we're looking to the longer run. What will happen if Iran – and

11:37they will decide to do so – it goes without saying – rebuild their air-defensive capabilities,

11:42missile-defensive capabilities. They're not even talking about the nuclear issues,

11:45but it will go there as well. So what will happen then? Israel will do what?

11:49short of war campaign in Iran, bombing Iran like they did in Syria. But Iran is going to

11:53retaliate. We found ourselves in an attrition war. So I think, based on also people sat on the street

11:59in Israel, in Tel Aviv, and in other areas in Israel, we have to be very skeptical right now.

12:05Israel has achievements. But I think it would be very hard to preserve those achievements if Israel

12:11will continue in thinking that there is no – or we cannot use some sort of political solution like

12:17happening in Lebanon or in Gaza. We have to have a political solution agreement that will secure

12:23those achievements, maybe with giving something to the Iranian safe face issue that will help them

12:29agreeing on that. Because if we'll continue the constitution, it will be very unstable. We'll

12:33find ourselves soon enough in another clash with the Iranians.

12:36You touched on this earlier that the Iranians said they would only negotiate with the United States

12:43once Israel stops bombing them. Now that Trump is trying to pressure both sides to hold this ceasefire,

12:51let's just for argument's sake go look into the future and say that Donald Trump does manage to

12:58secure a nuclear deal with Iran which allows for nuclear inspections, what have you. Down the line,

13:04we're also going to see sanctions relief because Iran's going to want that as part of any deal.

13:10It's going to be able to build up its economy down the future. Will Netanyahu try and scuttle

13:15whatever agreement just again like he did 12 days ago, knowing that sanctions relief,

13:22etc. is going to come with part of the package?

13:25Netanyahu used a void that won't be

13:31existent if the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement. The void was that the U.S. wanted to

13:37reach an agreement. President Trump understood that Iranians want to capitalize to his conditions.

13:42He allowed Netanyahu to attack and now forcing Israel to stop. And then he's hoping what will happen

13:48is that Iran will return back to the negotiation table. I think that at the end of the day, if there

13:52will be an agreement, it will block all other availability or options by Israel to re-attack

14:00or attack again the Iranian capabilities. Because under any agreement, you know,

14:04lifting of sanctions, and I think there will be something about preventing other elements

14:09from attacking in Iran. I think it goes without saying it will be abandoned within the image itself.

14:14So Netanyahu had, I think, more or less one shot, unless the U.S. will approve another

14:18strike of Israel's strike in Iran. It doesn't seem like that, but we never know.

14:22Netanyahu had one shot. He tried to make the maximum out of it. But we have to remember

14:26that at the end of the day, no one, as mentioned before, no one is really pro-regime change.

14:32And Israel has achievements. But if Trump will force it, force us, sort of a political solution with

14:39the Iranians in terms of what the U.S. will agree with them, I don't see Netanyahu having any ability

14:44to fight it or to change the President Trump's opinion. So it will be forced on Israel to agree.

14:51Danny, final question. You heard there from our correspondent Noga Tanopolsky in Jerusalem that

14:57this 12-day war between Iran and Israel has scored Benjamin Netanyahu a lot of political points.

15:06He's been knocked down a peg now that Donald Trump has told him to stand down.

15:11What about the conflict in Gaza? That war is still underway. Israeli hostages continue to be in

15:17the enclave. The humanitarian situation, as you know, continues to remain terrible. People are

15:24getting fired upon, standing in line for aid every single day. Will there be real pressure on the

15:30Prime Minister to end that conflict, knowing that his job is in jeopardy once that war comes to an end?

15:37Well, I have to say first and foremost that I know I think Netanyahu hope that the war in Iran will

15:47help him to press Hamas to lift the hostages without stopping the war. I don't think this will happen.

15:53I think that we are the same stalemate in terms of the fact that I don't see Hamas agreeing,

16:02because what's happening with Iran agreeing to release the hostages without stopping the war,

16:07without you stopping the war. So I think in that regard, we are in the same place. Now,

16:12what has changed is the political system of political development in Israel. Netanyahu really

16:17think, as according to latest developments or reports, to go for some sort of quick elections,

16:24because he thinks that using what's happening in Iran, he can really regain control of the government,

16:30or the Knesset or the parliament. And maybe there we'll see some sort of a change, because then,

16:35when he will release from any outside pressure, maybe we'll find some sort of solution, political

16:40solution to the problem of the hostages. So the war on the other thing, anything happening with Iran

16:46won't change the constitution. It will lead to normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It won't

16:52pressure Hamas to surrender itself to Israel. It will continue fighting in Gaza, but the only thing

16:58can change something in the development in Gaza right now, is if Netanyahu will decide to go to

17:03election, that definitely will have an effect. But until now, or given the recent developments,

17:09I don't think that we'll see dramatic change. Danny, Danny Citrinowicz, thank you so much for

17:14joining us on the program today. Thank you for inviting me.

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