'Everything is on the table': 'Equally likely' US-Iran nuclear talks lead to accord or 'lead to war'

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00Upping the ante before the first talk since 2018 between the United States and Iran.

00:17Sanctions slapped by Washington on five entities, including Tehran's Atomic Authority,

00:22and fresh airstrikes overnight in Yemen on Iran-backed Houthi positions,

00:27airstrikes attributed to the U.S. Ahead of the Saturday talks in Oman,

00:32Iran's president dismissing the accusation, his country seeking the atomic bomb,

00:36instead inviting Americans to explore business opportunities in his country.

00:43We will negotiate, and as the Supreme Leader said, the talks will be indirect. We'll do this

00:47with dignity and hold our heads high, and we will provide whatever necessary guarantees to prove

00:51that we are not seeking a nuclear bomb. They have investigated this a thousand times,

00:55and they can come here and investigate again. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has no

01:01opposition whatsoever to American investment in this country. Investors can come here and invest.

01:06Well, for more, let's cross to Ruz Bey Parsi, director of the Middle East North Africa program at the Swedish

01:17Institute of International Affairs. Thanks for speaking with us from Uppsala.

01:23Thank you for having me.

01:25In that clip we just heard from the Iranian president, is he speaking Donald Trump's language?

01:30I think it's an attempt to speak on the wavelength that Donald Trump usually is, yes.

01:38And how effective will that be?

01:42In and of itself, it will not be effective, obviously, but it is a good sign,

01:45because it shows that Tehran is at least trying to understand how to talk to Donald Trump,

01:50which they didn't really last time he was president.

01:52So, the U.S. slapping more sanctions. Every time we get these announcements of new sanctions

01:59against Iran, we wonder, what are they sanctioning exactly? Is it just an announcement at this point?

02:08I think yes. I mean, to most effects, everything that you can sanction in Iran is already sanctioned,

02:15so it's not going to make much of a difference. But I think it is this kind of tactic of trying to

02:20show just how tough you can be just before you enter negotiations. The problem and the risk with

02:25that, and the Iranians do this too, is, of course, that the other side will be so alienated

02:28and is already distrustful that it might also wreck those very negotiations.

02:34What are you expecting from those indirect talks, and why are they happening now?

02:39Well, I mean, one thing that we need to keep in mind is that Donald Trump changes his mind all the

02:45time. So, it is equally likely that this could lead to something, and it's also equally likely that it

02:50could lead to war. So, in that sense, everything is on the table. The problem for the Iranians are,

02:56of course, that they are very bad at coming to a decision of making a stand and actually following

03:01through. So, the Supreme Leader is trying to hedge his bets in all directions, which means that they're

03:06not really clear-cut decisions made in Tehran on how far they're willing to go in those negotiations.

03:11On the Trumpian side, the problem is that his own White House is a very divided house.

03:16There are those who are trying to seek a war with Iran, partly in conjunction with Bibi Netanyahu in

03:22Israel, and there are those who absolutely do not want to have a war, and therefore trying to seek

03:26to find a negotiated settlement. So, all of those voices are standing behind him, and he happens to

03:33usually believe in the person who talked to him last. And that means that all of this is very much

03:38up in there. And if he does decide to choose the war path, it could prove perhaps more tricky

03:46than it seems, what with Gulf states reportedly saying they don't want flyovers of their territory.

03:56Yes, I think, I mean, the general appetite for anything that could become a regional war,

04:01and that would, of course, be the overarching risk here, is there is no appetite for that in the

04:07region. So, I think everyone is trying to caution the Trump administration into not getting themselves

04:13into a chicken race with the Iranians about who can be the toughest. On the other hand, of course,

04:17the only country that could severely damage the Islamic Republic in Iran is the United States. So,

04:24they do have the industrial capacity to do so. I don't think it's Trump's own instinct to want to

04:29actually have a war. His track record is trying to get the U.S. out of wars, especially in the Middle

04:33East. But again, it comes down to what is a negotiation tactic, and then what is the follow

04:40through in terms of process of being able to reach a deal. The weakness of the Trump administration is

04:45that it's a White House that is not only divided, but also rather chaotic. There is no real bureaucratic

04:50institutional process. And if you want to have an agreement on a tricky issue like this that holds,

04:55and that everyone can trust will survive, then it's going to need a lot of fine print.

05:00One thing that has been consistent in the last month, Ruz Bey, has been these airstrikes on Yemen.

05:06Now, on the surface of it, it's because of those missiles disrupting traffic in the Red Sea,

05:17but it's also a message to Tehran.

05:19Absolutely. And that's part of the, if you want to say, those who are particularly angry at Iran for

05:28its regional, what it's doing regionally, they see this as not only a way of pressuring Tehran,

05:35but also show Tehran that the old days where there would be some kind of balance of power and some

05:40holding back on the American side is no longer. So if Trump feels that there is a military solution

05:47to a problem that cannot be solved any other way, he will not hesitate. And so in that sense,

05:52Yemen is a low-hanging fruit. Though anyone who has studied Yemen, including the Gulf states that

05:57have been warring in Yemen, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will tell you that there

06:02is no military solution to the Houthi problem. One final question for you, Ruz Bey Parsi. How should

06:07Europeans who were parties to that 2015 nuclear treaty that Donald Trump walked away from,

06:14how should they view these talks in Oman on Saturday?

06:18I think they are somewhat divided on it. I mean, on the one hand, the problem for the Europeans

06:23right now is that they are no longer part of the incentive. Back in 2015, it was trade with Europe

06:28that was the incentive for Iran to sign a deal. That is gone, partly because what happened when Trump

06:34left was that it made it very clear that Europeans don't have strategic autonomy, as they like to call it,

06:40when it comes to financial matters. They're totally beholden to American sanctions. So whoever the

06:46American sanctions, the Europeans cannot really touch. So in that sense, they are not part of the

06:50carrot in this carrot stick deal. On the other hand, the only lever they have at the moment is snapback

06:55because they're still in the deal. So they could go to the United Nations Security Council and say that

07:00Iran is not following the deal and therefore all UN sanctions come back. But that is, of course,

07:05a negative lever. They don't have anything constructive in that sense right now to offer.

07:10Ruz Bey Parsi, many thanks for speaking with us from Uppsala in Sweden.

Category

Transcript

Recommended