Twin Cities may be spared from Minnesota's third blizzard this month

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00:00Well, we are tracking the latest with this next spring storm system.

00:03It is starting to make a shift to the southeast.

00:05We'll show you who can expect the heaviest snowfall

00:07and what we have in store for the rest of the week.

00:20So we've seen a significant shift in the vast majority of the computer models

00:24this morning to the southeast with the heaviest of the snow.

00:28We knew this storm was going to be a bit of a headache,

00:29because it's a very tight snowfall gradient

00:33on the western and northwestern side of this.

00:35And any little shift south and east,

00:37we've been talking about the last couple of days,

00:39would have a big impact on metro snow totals,

00:41because we were always going to be on the northwestern side of this.

00:44But southeastern Minnesota still looks to bear the brunt of this system

00:48with significant snowfall.

00:50So this is what all the advisories look like right now.

00:52We've got the blizzard warning for south central,

00:55southeastern Minnesota, Worthington, Elbert, Lee, Mankato, Red Wing.

00:58Those are all areas that are still going to get significant snowfall and wind,

01:0250 mile per hour wind gusts possible tomorrow.

01:05But I do think we could see some of these things shift south and east this afternoon.

01:09These advisories were as of this morning.

01:12They haven't been adjusted yet.

01:14But the southeast metro yesterday was thrown into the winter storm watch,

01:18those areas of blue.

01:19So Dakota, Scott, and Washington counties yesterday.

01:24I think those will probably be shifted to a winter weather advisory

01:28with these latest model trends.

01:29So let's take a look at what's going on with this system right now.

01:32It is still developing.

01:33We've got a low here centered over eastern Colorado

01:38and some moisture that looks like it's across Minnesota,

01:42but it's not quite reaching the ground yet.

01:44So what you see there across central Minnesota is snowfall aloft,

01:48not quite reaching the surface as we have some pretty dry air still.

01:53Actually, if we look at current dew points,

01:57we can see those are mostly in the 20s,

02:01while the actual temperatures are sitting in the 30s and 40s.

02:04So still some pretty dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

02:08Starting to warm up a bit in the 40s here across the Twin Cities at the moment,

02:13and a little bit of a northeast breeze.

02:15And this is not a good direction for trying to get those snowfall totals to expand

02:20for the north.

02:20A dry northeast wind can kind of really sharply cut off some of the totals

02:26on the back or on the north side of things.

02:28So this is the weather service forecast as of this morning.

02:31And again, I expect this to shift south and east too.

02:34You've probably been seeing big ranges on these.

02:37And that's because it really will be, or certainly has looked that way,

02:42that we will have some pretty big ranges of snowfall totals,

02:45especially across, again, the metro area.

02:46So this was their 6.53 a.m. update that had three to five inches

02:50in the core of the metro with four to eight in the southeast metro.

02:53But all of this has really shifted.

02:56And some of the models that can show this pretty well for us,

03:00this is the latest high-resolution rapid refresh model,

03:04which is showing that snowfall shift to the south and east here

03:08with still a very heavy swath.

03:09We're talking eight to 12 inches, potentially,

03:12across southeastern Minnesota, right over Rochester now.

03:15But this same model, if we look at the run from...

03:20Oh, first I'm going to switch this out here.

03:23If we look at the run from midnight, overnight, last night,

03:27still had the southeast metro in that two to six inch potential range

03:31with maybe a couple of inches right in the core of Minneapolis-St. Paul proper.

03:36The evening model run last night had six inches at MSP

03:41and maybe eight to ten inches in the southeast metro.

03:44So that has been a shift.

03:46So again, this was the 6 p.m. model run yesterday evening, Monday evening.

03:51And now the 6 a.m. model run this morning.

03:53You can see that shift here.

03:54And this is just one of several models showing the same thing.

03:58Our three kilometer North American model,

04:00the 12 kilometer, all showing the same thing there.

04:05And basically, just the American model still brings some snow,

04:10but even it has shifted farther to the southeast.

04:13This has been an outlier model the last couple of days for this particular storm.

04:17It has been way overdoing the totals.

04:19It's been having a foot of snow occasionally in the Twin Cities even.

04:23So this is a significant shift for the American model, too,

04:26to give us only six inches now,

04:27whereas let's just look at the evening model run yesterday.

04:31It gave us 13 inches of snow.

04:33So you get the idea here.

04:35All the models are trending south.

04:37If we look at the mean of the shorter term models,

04:43it is still kind of lagging as these models update.

04:46But even that has dropped to just about one to three inches for the metro.

04:51So we really are in a situation where this could be a boomer bust here

04:54and probably a bust the way it's looking right now.

04:59Let's see.

05:02I want to show you some probabilities based on the current models.

05:07Basically, there is a two thirds chance that we get more than zero inches of snow still.

05:13But even that could shift.

05:14We're at about the 50-50 probability mark for an inch of snow.

05:19Now, this is for Minneapolis-St. Paul proper.

05:20If you're in the southeast metro, still a better chance of getting a little bit of snow.

05:25But the higher end snowfall totals,

05:27the probabilities of those have really dropped off

05:29because of this big shift in the model trends here.

05:33And when we look at the weighted average of models,

05:35that's still lagging because it isn't including all the updated model runs yet.

05:40But it, too, has dropped to just four inches now for the Twin Cities.

05:45But again, if we go back in time to yesterday evening, it was giving us a half foot.

05:49So you get the idea.

05:51Again, here's the trend.

05:53And this is not accounting for all the morning model runs updates just yet.

05:58So I do think we'll continue to see those drop off.

06:00So it is entirely possible that if you live in Minneapolis-St. Paul,

06:04we might get zero, just some snow showers, but maybe no accumulating snow.

06:08And almost certainly now, if you're in the northwestern suburbs,

06:12just based upon what we're seeing here with all the model trends.

06:15The interesting one to see is what the latest European model shows.

06:18This is the overnight run.

06:20European model is one of the last model runs to finish its update.

06:24But even its 1 a.m. run overnight gave us a pretty stark amount of snow,

06:28just a dusting to a few tenths of an inch in the Twin Cities

06:31with maybe half inch to an inch in the southeast metro.

06:34But this, if it pans out the way it's looking right now,

06:38the European model may have nailed the storm before the other models

06:41by keeping consistently the heaviest snow swath to the southeast

06:46across southeastern Minnesota.

06:47But still looking like, you know, Faribault, Mankato, Rochester, Elbert, Lee,

06:52you guys are in for a pretty heavy snow.

06:54Again, if the high resolution rapid refresh model is correct,

06:58the HUR, we're talking about a big snow in Olmstead County

07:03that's in the 9, 10, 11 inches.

07:04Now there probably will be some melting and compacting

07:06because temperatures will be in the 30s overnight.

07:09But big shift here in the model trends over the last 24 hours, 12 hours even.

07:16But we are still looking at the possibility of a system coming in

07:19as we head into the weekend.

07:20I wanted to take a little bit of a glance at that.

07:23We'll put on the European model here Sunday, Monday next week.

07:29And again, don't get too excited because as we have seen,

07:32these things can shift even just in the hours before.

07:37So that's for this current system.

07:39European model keeping it further to the south.

07:43And then over the weekend, that looks kind of spotty now.

07:49European models going further south.

07:52American model still dumps some snow,

07:55but further north across northern Minnesota,

07:57maybe a couple of inches in southern Minnesota.

08:00Canadian model still gives us some snow.

08:02Again, this is Sunday across southeastern Minnesota.

08:04So still a mixed bag on that Sunday, Monday system.

08:07But again, the big headline is this current snowfall.

08:10All the models really trending southeast.

08:13So Twin Cities Metro, not saying we're out of the woods just yet,

08:17but I would watch for these advisories to really shift here.

08:20We're probably going to see all these things shift through the afternoon

08:22south and east with just a little bit of snow in the metro.

08:25And again, southeastern suburbs, still not out of the woods yet.

08:29You might still get a couple of inches there.

08:30But Rochester area, Elbertly, I would plan on a very heavy, wet snow.

08:36And then temperatures are going to be a little cooler here

08:38as we head into the next couple of days.

08:39Probably low 40s tomorrow, mid 40s heading into Thursday.

08:44So whatever snow any of us does get, we'll be melting.

08:4652 Friday, but generally cooler temperatures these next

08:50five to seven days from what we've gotten used to,

08:52which has been ridiculously above normal.

08:55These temperatures are all closer to normal,

08:57still actually slightly above.

08:59Normal highs about 43 going into the mid 40s next week.

09:02So can't complain about above normal temperatures too much

09:05if you're really got spring fever.

09:08But again, bigger story is missing that snow to the south and east here.

09:14If you're a snow lover, I'm sorry.

09:15Head to Rochester, but I think a lot of people have spring fever at this point.

09:19Much needed moisture though.

09:2069% of Minnesota still is in drought.

09:22And southeastern Minnesota, which is included in some of that drought category,

09:26looking to get a nice heavy wet snow late tonight into Wednesday.

09:33Can look at the timing of this for those that will be affected.

09:37Again, we're still seeing probably a few rain and snow showers.

09:41This is 11 p.m. this evening.

09:44Few snow showers across west central Minnesota.

09:46Not really amounting much though.

09:47The bigger snow really gets going early in the morning.

09:50So another thing is the delayed onset of this system.

09:52So this is 10 a.m. tomorrow.

09:55Heavy snow in southeastern Minnesota.

09:57It just gets to maybe Hastings there by the afternoon.

10:01And then really doesn't get farther north.

10:04And then wraps up even in southeastern Minnesota by evening tomorrow.

10:06Here's 8 p.m.

10:08It's pretty much done.

10:10And yeah, not getting much out of that.

10:15In the Twin Cities except for...

10:17Well, that's yesterday afternoon's run.

10:19Don't scare people there.

10:20Okay, yeah.

10:21So entirely possible we get zero.

10:23But I would still bank on a little bit of snow.

10:26But we're definitely gonna be watching the rest of the morning model runs in the midday

10:31model runs as it appears.

10:32This storm is definitely trending further south and southeast of the Twin Cities with

10:37a heavy snow and those blizzard conditions potentially here in south central Minnesota.

10:42Oh, that is one thing I want to look at is we're still going to be looking at

10:46a lot of wind here tomorrow.

10:48These are the wind gusts through Wednesday.

10:51Even in the Twin Cities, maybe up to 50 miles an hour.

10:53Maybe 50, 60 miles an hour there.

10:55These are maximum wind gusts forecast by this particular model for tomorrow.

10:59Might be a little high, but you get the idea.

11:01Very windy.

11:02So where we get that heavy snow set up, even if it's not a foot, even if it's six inches,

11:06say, blowing around, that's why we've got those blizzard warnings for south central

11:12and southeastern Minnesota.

11:13So winter's not done with us yet.

11:15Tomorrow's the last full day of winter.

11:18And then the vernal equinox is on Thursday.

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