The Mavs win the lottery with a 1.5% chance and now the conspiracy theories are flying. I explain why it’s fun to speculate — but also why it probably isn’t rigged — and what this means for Dallas, Utah, Charlotte & more.
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#NBADraftLottery #Mavs #LukaDoncic #NBA2025 #BasketballTalk
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SportsTranscript
00:00there's no other way to put this it's hilarious that the dallas mavericks won the nba's draft
00:14lottery when you look at everything that this team has put itself through i was going to say
00:19has gone through everything that this team has put itself through um the fact that they come
00:24away with the the number one pick is just first and foremost it's funny it's that that's just what
00:31it is it's it's a funny thing that has happened um and look i i am not a sports conspiracy theory guy
00:37at all i i think that when you look at how these leagues operate and try to put together different
00:44things i i think it is laughable not laughable but i think it's very difficult to suggest that
00:49leagues that can't figure out video review can figure out a way to rig a lottery system so i i'm
00:55not a conspiracy theory guy at all but if we get the documentary 30 years from now that this one was
01:01fixed i'm it's not going to be a look of shock on my face i said it won't be a no no what no
01:10it's gonna be a okay yeah no i guess i guess that checks out the fact that like the lakers just tying
01:18it all together for the people nba tv ratings are down and so how do you do that well it is with
01:24superstars and it is with marquee franchises well uh we got lebron on the lakers and that's still not
01:29really working and 80 like he's good but we we need something else uh oh let's get luca to the
01:34lakers in a gigantic seismic move to really rock the boat and get this and so if again if you're going
01:41to rig the whole thing you say hey uh nico um just a sec here uh so uh you're trading luca
01:47what no we're not gonna do it yes you are but in return we're gonna give you that first overall
01:54pick in in a draft where that is necessary right this isn't last year with uh resashay that this
01:59is a yeah you know what well that this is a this is a game changer so we're gonna give them to you
02:03and this would just be a nice little thank you for that one and so you can see how it all kind of
02:08like draws together where nba desperate to change the conversation about their ratings
02:13now they are dominating the conversation when it comes to um sports talk in general with lebron
02:20and luca together now and all the different things that maybe it means and yeah you're gonna take it on
02:25the chin for a little while uh but now now you're gonna get the next one here in in cooper flag and so
02:31i can see where the conspiracy theorists are coming from but i still don't fully buy that it's a
02:38conspiracy and here's why for this to be a legitimate conspiracy i don't think the lakers
02:43then would have lost in five like i don't i don't think they're cut off for when they would want
02:47better tv ratings ends at the first round of the playoffs you know and especially when you see what
02:53they have now where it is um the the timberwolves against curry and the warriors now it ends up not
02:59being curry and the warriors because curry is hurt but you you're telling me that the nba if they're
03:04going to rig a lottery to get a player to a different team just for tv ratings you're telling
03:10me that they're not going to rig a playoff series come on come on right if you're gonna go you're
03:16gonna go halfway you gotta go all the way on that one right and so when you look at it like that game
03:20four crucial game four for the lakers against the timberwolves where lebron is called for a foul and we
03:25don't see the video of that until the very end and it's just like super slow-mo down thing
03:29okay like no one else saw that and so they could have just very easily not right they could have
03:37easily not had that and just okay whatever if we're going to go the conspiracy route instead
03:41they show it lebron gets the foul timberwolves win game four and they go on to win the series and so
03:46then um so that's one reason why we're not fully buying this right the other reason why we just need
03:52to take a breath on these conspiracy theory things is how many things had to happen to get the mavericks
04:01to this point where you have within the first like days of this trade happening kyrie and 80 have
04:10catastrophic season ending injuries gafford goes down with an injury as well and now all of a sudden
04:15this is a team that is basically just running on fumes down the stretch and the only way they get
04:23into the play-in at all is because the phoenix suns are just an absolute tire fire the whole way so
04:28then they get into the play-in and then you are assuming that they lose in the second part of the
04:33play-in um after winning in that first one against a memphis team that was having a bit of an injury
04:39concern there so i i just think that if you are going to if you are going to be the league if you're
04:47going to be saying that the league um set this up and that this was a giant conspiracy i just think
04:53you have to look at all of it and it's like okay well if they're going to conspiracy on that then why
04:56why do the lakers go down in five and how could you guarantee that this situation was going to come
05:02up when the mavericks had to have a bunch of injuries and then still almost make the playoffs
05:07making this point obsolete entirely so i don't i just don't believe that this is going to be it
05:13and i know people are going like oh well look at all the different ways that uh teams have made
05:17trades before and benefited from having the first overall pick and it's okay fine maybe you can like
05:23okay well yes you you get a you you just bought a team so here's anthony davis oh you had to trade
05:28anthony davis to the lakers well okay um here he goes uh here here's another number one pick for you
05:34and uh oh well we want we don't want lebron james in memphis we want him in cleveland so there's that
05:39i again i just don't see this league going out of its way to help cleveland and new orleans you know
05:46i just like the the raptors getting the best the top pick um with barniani that doesn't that's not
05:52helping anyone like i just i don't see them going you know what we really need right now uh we need
06:00new orleans and cleveland to be relevant that's that's what we need also if you were going to do
06:05if you were going to mastermind this whole plan to get the lakers into a better tv ratings spot
06:11you're probably doing it before the new tv deal right like they they have all the the tv ratings
06:19not the tv ratings mean nothing but this is a bit of a lame duck year for them before they go off to
06:25amazon and to nbc and staying on espn and abc they they just negotiated a gigantic tv deal why if they
06:33were going to do something like this why would they wait till now to do these something like this
06:38so i just i again i think that is where this kind of falls apart also if we're in the business of
06:44fixing things a little bit i i don't think victor reminyama ends up in san antonio i i don't think
06:50that's a key market for them right now i think the nba would be fine if the spurs were bad for the
06:54next 30 years i don't think it's affecting the nba one iota so giving them another generational
06:59talent and i don't i don't think that they would do that also i don't think lebron ends up in
07:04cleveland also i don't think zion ends up with the pelicans also i don't think the knicks end up
07:10not drafting high ever in their franchise's history aside from patrick ewing and maybe that's a hey look
07:16man we give you that one you you gotta be chill for 40 years at least here but so i just again it is
07:22it is fine to point at all the things that when you just focus on those things like oh shit oh
07:28there's something big there's there's something going on here but then we need to take one step
07:32back and say okay well if they did it there then why didn't they do it there and why did that happen
07:36what about this and what about those yeah but what about these two don't look at the eight look at
07:41these two things that are going on so it i again it's fun fun to believe conspiracy theories happen
07:46i just don't see it again i don't think a league that spends several minutes on reviews is going to
07:54be able to rig a lottery i just i don't i don't see it happening so if we are to assume that the
08:00lottery wasn't rigged did the nba just end tanking like you look at the last place teams this year
08:07the four teams with the best odds going into the draft lottery were utah washington charlotte and new
08:12orleans they finished fourth six or sorry fifth sixth fourth and seventh the mavs finished 10th
08:20in the west and they win the lottery on the 1.5 percent chance in 2024 the hawks won the lottery
08:25with a three percent chance now the three before that um the the spurs the magic and the pistons
08:30all had the best odds of winning and they end up getting it but it does seem that they're getting
08:36what they want where bad teams aren't necessarily just automatically getting rewarded for being bad
08:43teams and now i do think you have to if you are a team builder i think you have to take a very very
08:52long look at the strategies that you were using in building up your teams because just being bad and
08:59getting that top pick isn't isn't working it's what washington was banking on and now they're picking
09:04sixth sixth like that that number one pick that could have been a huge piece to really get this
09:10thing going in washington now i don't know what the get out of jail free card is right say if it like
09:15utah they have marketing that they can trade and probably will trade but then you're starting over
09:20basically and starting over not to get too far into it but with another white dude in utah that wouldn't
09:27be the worst place to be uh starting over with a cooper flag like that that is a big piece there and then
09:32you look at charlotte and new orleans they have dealt with some very high level injuries and now
09:37they are looking at the potential bringing in a star for charlotte maybe this is like one okay now
09:42you have flag whatever you get out of ball and miller and now we got something going here new orleans
09:48it either jump starts things because you can trade zion or now you take some of the pressure off of
09:53zion either way it this would have been a huge moment but now when you look at where these teams are
09:58these four teams like it feels helpless out in washington right now it feels helpless out in
10:04utah right now and charlotte like they're just hamstrung by injuries and new orleans did the
10:10damn thing got the guy and still haven't been able to because injuries or whatever but now if just like
10:16this was this was the lottery to fix this right this was the lottery to get them out of it not even
10:19just the the lottery but like not just number one but like the top four you get something pretty good
10:25out of and only one of the worst four teams is going to be drafting in that spot so i do wonder
10:31if this does mean the end of tanking because washington it just feels so helpless right now
10:38and i know like again you can point to a lot of different things that would suggest that maybe this
10:44isn't because san antonio they were bad and they got the kid right detroit almost won a playoff round
10:50because they were bad and they got the kid and they figured out how to build around him
10:53um orlando has been to the playoffs back-to-back years now because they were bad got the kid and
10:58got a couple others and built around it right so i can understand where there would be pushback to
11:04this but i am wondering now if because you just saw these last two really not go the way of the
11:12bad teams and it being so desperate specifically in washington but it being so desperate for these
11:18teams now i wonder if you are an owner if you're a general manager you're looking at this like man i
11:23don't i don't know if this is the way to go about it because this sucks dude it's just it's helpless
11:29to to be in that spot um at this particular time and so it kind of ties in with the um uh some of
11:36the news that's going on but like looking at it from a my perspective raptor fan here um i do wonder
11:44now and i was critical of the brandon ingram trade but i do wonder if like hey let's just
11:48let's get as many good players as possible and just try to figure it out on the fly i don't care
11:54how we get them whether it is draft if a trade opportunity pops up let's take advantage of that
11:58if a free agent opportunity pops up let's take advantage of that let's just try to accumulate
12:02good players and if the ping pong balls happen to bounce our way sometime that's great um otherwise
12:07we're just going to try to manage this as uh as best as we can and now look they very obviously tried
12:13to tank at the end not even tried to they very obviously successfully tanked at the end of the
12:17season right but they also they make a couple of trades to bring in some actual like high level
12:24players onto their team and now there's a rumor that they're going to be trying to do that with
12:29one more with janice atentacumpo and so i do wonder now if that is maybe the way to go because the ping
12:34pong balls have been so unpredictable and have been so unforgiving for the bad teams also if you are
12:40looking to come out of it and acquiring a superstar look at where the bucks are at right now they don't
12:45have their own pick until 2031 so they're not looking to to dump off a bunch of guys for they're
12:52not looking to dump off janice for a bunch of picks or anything like that now i'm sure if and when janice
12:56gets traded a lot of draft picks are going to be involved but they're going to be looking to probably
13:01either get their original picks back which could be tricky or they are going to be looking at trying to
13:07bring in a few more win now players and when you're looking at the difference between a brooklyn
13:12who has a bunch of picks and everything to offer but not a whole lot in terms of like actual nba
13:17assets and you're looking at the raptors who have some picks but a bunch of nba assets if i'm milwaukee
13:22and i don't have my own picks the toronto one looks a little bit more enticing so uh we've been
13:27getting on messiah for a long time now maybe it's a crazy like a fox thing or maybe i'm just
13:31overreacting to two draft lotteries in a row but it really does seem like it would be a much more
13:35difficult sell to ownership to say i just tank then uh it was probably three or four years ago