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00:00So I think AI will be somewhat disruptive to the way people currently use technology.

00:10The reason I was smiling is there's this funny thing that happens.

00:16Older people are people who are used to emailing with a certain kind of etiquette

00:19will type out the bullet points that they want to communicate,

00:25put it into ChatGPT.

00:27ChatGPT will write this long, nice formal email with a bunch of fluff and bullet points somewhere in there.

00:32They'll send it across to somebody else.

00:34That person will put it back into ChatGPT and say, please summarize this for me.

00:40And on the whole, the high school students think this is ridiculous

00:44and just say, just send the bullet points.

00:47That kind of formal email thing is dead.

00:50You're generating on one side, you're collapsing it back.

00:53This is ridiculous.

00:53And it's funny, but I think there's something about the way we use the whole internet

01:00that is encapsulated there.

01:03Like if I, when I wake up in the morning, I go through a bunch of apps,

01:08I read messages across five or six different things.

01:10I go check, you know, a thing here, a thing there, a thing there.

01:13And what I really would like, and then my phone all day long is just like blowing up at me

01:20and it feels like I'm like walking down the Las Vegas Strip and these things flashing at me

01:24and it's very distracting, people like shoving things in my face.

01:27And what I would like is my AI agent to be off using the internet for me,

01:33knowing when to interrupt me.

01:34It can tell when I'm, you know, focused working.

01:37It can tell when I'm in a meeting.

01:38It can tell when I'm like got some time to think.

01:39It can override if necessary.

01:41Otherwise it can like nicely summarize stuff, respond to things for me,

01:45pull the things together.

01:47And, you know, I want like that bullet point condensed thing.

01:50And I don't want the fluff and I don't have to like go around and click around

01:53and I don't have to, you know, respond to stuff I don't respond to.

01:59But that change is probably fairly disruptive to the way that the internet works now.

02:05And I think there'll have to be new business models that go along with that.

02:10Like I'll have to have new ways of paying for content.

02:12I have always wanted micropayments for content on the internet.

02:16I hope that finally happens.

02:17Maybe there'll be like new ways that we actually reduce, you know,

02:21spam and message overload with new kinds of protocols.

02:23But it does seem like we're heading towards a very different way

02:29you will start your morning with technology when you wake up.

02:32One question in order to get the microphone over to your community.

02:38I'm Peter Rupert, Deutsche Bank.

02:40Sam, thank you very much for prolonging a career,

02:42at least raising productivity as the years advance rather than seeing a drop off.

02:48You mentioned you were expecting significant job losses and significant job gains.

02:55Could you talk a little bit more about the areas

02:57and the potential disruption that could cause?

03:00One thing I believe, just as a general statement first,

03:08is that we have no idea really kind of like how much more labor supply

03:15it would really take to meet true demand today.

03:20You know, when you are sitting in a doctor's office waiting room for an hour,

03:24I think that just means undersupply of doctors

03:27or that the doctors aren't productive enough.

03:30And, you know, it would be great if the doctor's waiting around

03:32and as soon as you get there, like, they're ready to see you

03:34and they have the whole thing ready to go.

03:36Lots of other examples like this.

03:38Every time you're, you know, wasting your time in any way,

03:42every time you're kind of clicking around the internet,

03:44can't quite do the productive thing.

03:45I think we are in an undersupply of labor to a degree

03:50that is going to look horrible in retrospect.

03:54Now, some areas, again, I think just, like, totally, totally gone.

04:01I don't know if any of you have used one of these, like,

04:02AI customer support bots, but it's incredible.

04:06A couple years ago, you, like, call customer support.

04:10You, like, go through a phone tree.

04:11You talk to four different people.

04:12They do the thing wrong.

04:13You call back again.

04:14You wade through it.

04:15It's, like, hours of pain, ton of time on hold,

04:18and the thing that you want doesn't happen.

04:19Very frustrating experience.

04:22Now, you call one of these things and AI answers.

04:25It's, like, a super smart, capable person.

04:27There's no phone tree.

04:28There's no transfers.

04:29It can do everything that any customer support agent

04:31at that company could do.

04:33It does not make mistakes.

04:34It's very quick.

04:35You call once.

04:35The thing just happens.

04:36It's done.

04:37Answers right away.

04:38Great.

04:38Now, I don't want to go back there,

04:44and I also don't, it doesn't bother me at all

04:47that that's an AI and not a real person.

04:49So that's a category where I would just say,

04:51you know what?

04:51When you call customer support,

04:53you're going to be talking to an AI, and that's fine.

04:57A lot of these other things, I really do want a human doctor.

05:01ChatGPT today, by the way, most of the time can give you better,

05:06it's like a better diagnostician than most doctors in the world.

05:10And I'll, like many people here, probably put my symptoms in

05:13and test results, and, you know, like,

05:16there's all these stories on the Internet of ChatGPT saved my life,

05:18and, you know, I had this rare disease, and it found it,

05:20and all these doctors didn't do it.

05:22And yet people still go to doctors.

05:24And I am not, like, maybe I'm a dinosaur here,

05:27but I really do not want to, like, entrust my medical fate

05:30to ChatGPT with no human doctor in the loop.

05:33Would anybody here rather just have ChatGPT

05:35diagnose them than a doctor?

05:39Even though you know it's better?

05:40That's, like, quite interesting, right?

05:41So this is a class where we're going to keep doing things

05:44largely the way that we did.

05:46We talked earlier about this example of computer programmers.

05:50Like, again, I think it's amazing that a computer programmer

05:53is now ten times more productive.

05:54Salaries of programmers going up extremely rapidly

05:58in Silicon Valley, so are expectations.

06:01And it turns out, I think the world wants

06:03a gigantic amount more software,

06:06a hundred times, maybe a thousand times more software.

06:08So maybe each person can now write ten times as much software.

06:12They're going to make three times as much.

06:14The world will be happy because the world

06:15has wanted way more software.

06:17The programmers will be happy, too.

06:19And I think we'll see many categories like that.

06:21Things in the physical world will keep being done by humans for a while,

06:24but when this robotics wave comes crashing

06:26in another three to seven years,

06:29I think that's going to be a really big thing

06:31for society to reckon with.

06:35Yeah, that's kind of what I'd summarize it.

06:37I think we have two more questions over here,

06:40and we might have time for a third,

06:41but let's go ahead.

06:43Rob, you already have the microphone.

06:45Would you introduce yourself, please?

06:46Sure.

06:46Rob Blackwell with Intrify.

06:48We've been raised on decades of sci-fi telling us

06:52that AI is eventually going to kill us all.

06:55And since you know more about AI than arguably anybody in this room,

06:59I just want to ask you, what does keep you up at night?

07:03What are the things that you worry about when it comes to AI,

07:05and how do we prevent those things that you worry about

07:08from coming true?

07:09I think there's three sort of scary categories.

07:17There's a bad guy gets superintelligence first

07:21and misuses it before the rest of the world

07:23has a powerful enough version to defend.

07:25So an adversary of the U.S. says,

07:28I'm going to use this superintelligence to design a bioweapon

07:32to take down the United States power grid

07:35to break into the financial system

07:37and take everyone's money.

07:39Something that would just be hard to imagine

07:41without significantly superhuman intelligence,

07:45but with it becomes very possible.

07:46And because we don't have that, we can't defend against it.

07:48So that's category, broad category one.

07:52And I think that the bio capability of these models,

07:56the cybersecurity capability of these models,

07:58these are getting quite significant.

08:00We continue to flash the warning lights on this.

08:03I think the world is not taking us seriously.

08:06I don't know what else we can do there,

08:07but this is a very big thing coming.

08:11Category two is the sort of broadly

08:14called loss of control incidence.

08:16experience.

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