Met Office 14 Day Outlook 22/07/2025

22 July - 14 day outlook presented by Aidan McGivern

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Metalvis 14-day outlook in which we take a look at the most likely

00:04weather patterns for the next couple of weeks. The last week or so of July and into the first

00:09week of August of course. And the weather patterns have changed in the past week compared

00:15with summer so far. We've got the jet stream now to the south of the UK. That's why we've

00:20had so many outbreaks of rain and showers during the last few days. And if anything

00:24they'll intensify as we're going to Wednesday across the south and southwest as the jet

00:28stream takes a further dive to the south. And this area of cold air way up high where

00:34the jet stream is sits over the south and that's going to allow a lot of showers and thunderstorms

00:39to develop in the south and southeast. But then changes again later Wednesday and into

00:44Thursday that jet stream dip moves off. Higher pressure builds from the southwest. Doesn't

00:51quite end up over the UK. In fact there may well be another low trundling on for the weekend

00:57for the end of the weekend at least to bring some more rain. But the jet stream's in a

01:04slightly different position. It's not quite to the south of the UK. In fact it's more

01:08lying over the UK. And increasingly it will sit to the north of the UK or across the north

01:14of the UK as we go into the start of next week. And these are the three most likely weather

01:20patterns for Tuesday the 29th of July. Low pressure taking a more northerly track once

01:26again. Heading into Scandinavia. Higher pressure towards the south and southwest not quite reaching

01:32the UK. In between a fairly bland signal. Westerly winds more changeable. Just a blue blob there.

01:39That indicates wetter than normal conditions for the northwest of Scotland. Otherwise fairly average

01:44conditions in this most likely scenario. There are two other scenarios here. The second most

01:50likely and the third most likely. And not much difference between them really. We've still

01:56got low pressure to the north and high pressure to the southwest and west or northwesterly airflow

02:01across the UK. So fairly average summer weather as we begin next week. Not quite as showery as

02:08it has been. Not as hot as we've seen at times this summer. And it's more of the same as we go into

02:14Wednesday the 30th of July. As you can see this westerly airflow the most likely once again. We've

02:20got some other scenarios here. But they're very similar. West to northwest or southwest winds.

02:26But then hints of a change as we go into August. Still a fairly bland signal for the 1st of August.

02:33This is the most likely weather pattern. But there are some other scenarios emerging in the modelling.

02:39And one of them has higher pressure closer to the west and southwest of the UK. And that build of

02:45pressure to the west and southwest of the UK is a consistent signal that's coming in. This is the

02:50average pressure anomaly for this week. Higher pressure to the west. But that higher pressure

02:55to the west signal strengthens for the following week into the first few days of August. And that would

03:01of course lead to more settled weather more widely up and down the country. So yeah we start off

03:06the 7 to 14 day outlook with mixed weather in the north. Mostly fine in the south. Cloud. Some rain.

03:14Some showers. But otherwise reasonably settled with some warm sunny spells. No heat wave. And then

03:20gradually as we go into August turning more settled. That means perhaps more sunshine and a build in

03:27temperatures once again. But we'll have more details on that as and when we get more information. Bye bye.