10 Day Trend 23/07/2025 – Any signs of another heatwave? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 23/07/2025. The Azores high will nudge in at times through into next week, to bring largely settled conditions across the south but less settled conditions spread in from the north at times. Stay up to date as we get nearer to the time if your weekend plans are weather dependent. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Gregory Dewhurst.

Transcript

00:00Hello there, welcome to your latest 10-day trend from the Met Office and so

00:05far this summer the 10-day trend has all been about heat waves or thunderstorms

00:10and this one's going to be slightly different. So looking at the upper air

00:15pattern at the moment and the jet stream, the UK has been in this dip of a jet

00:20stream over the last few days, low pressure sat in the middle of this dip,

00:24we've seen unsettled conditions, heavy showers and thunderstorms for many of

00:27us over the last few days but it's all changed over the next few days. If we

00:32just play the jet stream pattern on for the next few days we can see how we lose

00:36the dip in the jet stream and the jet stream becomes a bit more mobile, a bit

00:40more westerly across the UK and what that allows is weather fronts to move in

00:44particularly across northern and western parts. But at the same time the Azores

00:48High behind me here is starting to try and push some ridging up from the

00:52southwest at times and you can almost see a bit of a north-south split developing.

00:56This area of low pressure interacting with the jet stream here you can see on

01:00Saturday and later into Sunday on our global model there's some uncertainty

01:05around that with the details. We'll come on to that in a moment but the main sort of

01:10features are coming in from the Atlantic which is always a fresher direction. So

01:15having a quick look at the forecast for Friday and a bit of a northwest

01:19southeast split across the UK, quite cloudy conditions across the north and the

01:23west a weak weather front pushing its way eastwards with some patchy light rain and

01:27drizzle at times becoming a little brighter but notice temperatures here

01:3017 to 21 Celsius fresher and breezy with that westerly wind but further south and

01:37east particularly across central southern parts of the UK temperatures in the

01:41sunshine rising to the mid to locally high 20 so warm afternoon to come. Then for

01:47Saturday a fairly cloudy day there'll be some bright or sunny spells there'll be a

01:51scattering of showers as well and then just behind me here this area of low

01:54pressure moving into the southwest uncertainties with the development of

01:59this it really needs the interaction with the jet stream to develop into an

02:02area of low pressure but it could start to bring some rain across some

02:06southwestern parts later in the day but for the vast majority it should be a

02:10fairly dry day a scattering of showers so the umbrella will be needed and

02:13temperatures high teens to low 20s across many parts centrally across the UK

02:19there 25 26 Celsius still possible. So just taking a look at different model

02:24outputs for the weekend and concentrating on the area of low pressure our global

02:29model here from the Met Office really sort of sticks out compared to other

02:32models developing a deep area of low pressure just to the southwest of the UK

02:37through Saturday and into Sunday whilst other models ECMWF for example on the

02:41right top right there you can see doesn't really have that deep area of low

02:45pressure and similar for the GFS with this more of a westerly flow pushing away

02:50any low pressures quicker that also then has an impact on our rainfall through the

02:56weekend the these are showing two different past model runs the top left

03:01pictures here and the bottom left picture is our global model you can see

03:05the previous model from the system here created some very intense rainfall

03:10amounts 50 60 70 80 millimeters plus in places across the southwest of the UK

03:15while some of the models ECMWF in the middle GFS on the right there

03:20indicates much lower amounts in fact the ECMWF here keeps the heaviest rainfall

03:25weight rates away from UK and now looking at the most recent rainfall from our model runs

03:31you can see how the rainfall totals are much lower on our latest global model

03:35still higher compared to say ECMWF which actually keeps rainfall amounts much lower

03:41so it just shows the uncertainty is there for Saturday and into Sunday with the

03:46development of that low pressure system probably most likely they'll still be

03:49some heavy showers around but the main sort of heavy and more persistent rain

03:54largely likely to miss the UK but just shows you there is the potential there for

03:59some heavier rain into southwestern parts which we'll need to watch so here's a look

04:03at the forecast using our extended high-res data for Sunday and it does develop a lot

04:08of heavy showers across central southern parts which may or may not come off they

04:13may start to ease later on in the day depending on the development and the movement of that

04:17low pressure through Saturday night into Sunday and temperatures once again above

04:22average and we can see that nicely on the anomaly charts for the next few days Friday

04:26and into Saturday particularly England and Wales the reds there on the map indicating

04:30temperatures above average something a little cooler across the northwest into

04:35next week when we start to see that more westerly mobility starting to develop

04:40temperatures actually back down nearer to average for the time of year generally

04:44you can just about see some blue hues across northern and western parts

04:48occasionally a little red on the far east with a bit of shelter but something a

04:52little cooler on the way to end the weekend and beginning of next week so

04:58talking about next week and looking at the five to ten day period we can see

05:02generally we're still going to keep a westerly regime in terms of our weather

05:08pattern this is the most likely weather pattern set up for Tuesday the 29th of

05:12July we can see there's always high trying to extend across the southwest this is

05:16using ECMWF data and low pressure to the north indicating some windier conditions

05:21here but also the risk of some rain coming in at times this high pressure may just

05:26move around a little bit through the course of next week and so if we take a

05:30look at Thursday for example you can see the most likely scenario is just the high

05:35to push a little further north and eastwards just allowing drier than average

05:40weather to develop across southern and western parts but the same time notice the

05:44wind direction still coming in from the north and northwest so quite a cool

05:48direction any sheltered eastern and southeastern parts likely to see the

05:52warmest temperatures but temperatures likely near average for many as you can

05:56see the percentage chance of this starts to drop off the further we go out this

06:00high pressure could still move around a little bit there is some model outputs

06:04that sort of allow the high to push a little further south we may see them

06:07weather fronts come in from time to time particularly across the north but they

06:11may make their way further south as well so if you're expecting rain through next

06:15week the further north and west you are more likely to see rain the further south and

06:19southeast you are you're more likely to be drier with sunny spells but there could

06:23still be a little rain around typical summer conditions if we take a look at

06:29europe for next week these are the temperature anomaly maps from east mwf and you can

06:33actually see after what has been a hot summer so far across europe the week ahead into the

06:39next week five to ten days it's indicating the temperature anomaly is going to be slightly

06:43below normal so if there are any chances that we switch our wind directions to a

06:48bit more of a southerly direction over the course of next week which is looking

06:52fairly unlikely of more of a west northwesterly flow temperatures across

06:56europe being a little below average we won't see the return of that extreme heat

07:01like we have done so far this summer so if we look at the probability plot over the

07:07course of the next two weeks we can see initially low pressure in charge at the

07:11moment giving that unsettled weather but quickly the azores high allowing it to settle down but

07:17just notice how there is a north-south split a 50-50 split with low pressure high pressure as

07:22we end july and go into the beginning of august this is that azores high the yellows there

07:28indicating the azores high coming in from the southwest so again indicating that north-south

07:33split with low pressure always nearby the further north you are but just hints as we get towards

07:38the beginning of august the scandinavian high and higher pressure to the north of the uk just

07:44showing up on some models which may just indicate through into august a settling down of the weather

07:49something a little warmer and drier but for now generally overall a north-south split with the

07:55weather with a mixed picture overall low pressure likely to the north high pressure to the south

08:01typical summer weather temperatures near average but they could be warm and it will be pleasant at times

08:06in that sunshine the sunshine still strong at this time of year it's largely going to be dry

08:12towards southern parts compared to the north but not exclusively we will see some showers some

08:17spells of rain perhaps at times through the next five to ten days but overall very much like a normal

08:24summer something we haven't really seen so far so if you'd like more information on the weather for

08:31the next few days you can go to our app our website and don't forget to click subscribe on our youtube

08:37channels for all the updates see you again soon

10 Day Trend 23/07/2025 – Any signs of another heatwave?

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