This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 16/07/2025. The heat and humidity rise again this week but rather than blue skies it’ll be often cloudy and those clouds may well produce hefty downpours too. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
00:00Hello. By the end of this 10-day trend forecast period, I'm pretty sure most schools across the UK will be on their summer holidays.
00:08Is the weather about to change? Well, yes, it kind of is.
00:12We've already seen a bit of a shift over recent days.
00:15The jet stream has slipped further south, currently kind of straddling the UK at time of recording.
00:20But we need to look out west, out in the Atlantic, where the jet is taking a bigger dive further south,
00:26generating a trough, a dip in the jet stream, which spins up this area of low pressure.
00:32And this area of low pressure, which generates further areas of low pressure, will dominate our weather,
00:37especially through the course of the weekend.
00:40But the devil will be in the detail.
00:43And for that, we need to get a little closer to the time.
00:46One of the things we are pretty sure of, though, is that as the jet stream drives southwards and starts to develop that area of low pressure,
00:52it's going to scoop up some warmth and humidity across the near continent, extending north.
00:59These are now the winds at low levels, pushing up some heat and humidity from Spain and from France across the UK during Friday and Saturday.
01:08So we are going to see the temperatures rising once more.
01:11Unlike the last few times where temperatures have been on the rise there,
01:15this one is likely to be accompanied by quite a lot of cloud and not the blue skies,
01:19and also increasingly the threat of some heavy rain.
01:23Now, that warm air is knocking on the door by the time we get to Friday.
01:26Probably the highest temperatures on Friday across the southeast with some sunshine up to 30 degrees Celsius.
01:32An old weather front straddling through parts of England and Wales,
01:35likely to provide quite cloudy conditions and also mark the boundary between cooler, fresher conditions further north and west.
01:42But again, on Friday, just like Thursday,
01:44the potential for some pretty heavy downpours and thunderstorms across Northern Ireland.
01:49There's a warning in place for Thursday.
01:51Check out the Met Office website and app for more details on that.
01:55This is the 10-day trend, so we're looking further ahead and trying to see what may happen through the course of the weekend.
02:01As that heat and humidity builds across the south,
02:04that's where we're looking down to the southeast in particular through Friday night and into Saturday.
02:08The first bout of heavy, potentially thundery rain drifting northwards.
02:13Look at the temperatures overnight.
02:15We may, in the London area, stay up above 20 Celsius,
02:18whereas it will be cooler again and more comfortable with the fresher air further north.
02:21The showers fading here, but increasing further south.
02:25And then during Saturday, we're looking at further plumes of heavy downpours drifting their way northwards.
02:30Now, don't take these maps too literally.
02:33This is just to give you an idea of the kind of general weather pattern.
02:35With the air coming up from the south, heavy, thundery showers coming up from the south.
02:40As always, they will be hit and miss.
02:42And as we'll see in a minute, there's not much confidence in the details for Saturday.
02:47But we are happy that we're going to see warm air drifting northwards,
02:50bringing quite a bit of cloud and some heavy and thundery downpours.
02:54Now, that's the Met Office main or deterministic model interpretation of how the rainfall could look.
03:00But, of course, if you watch the 10-day trend regularly,
03:03you'll know that that's not necessarily that useful, particularly when there's more uncertainty.
03:07We use ensemble forecasts where we run the model many times,
03:11just slightly tweaking the initial conditions.
03:14And that generates things like this.
03:16These are the postage stamps for the rainfall accumulation during the whole of Saturday.
03:23Each one a different member, a different run of the model.
03:27And each one showing slightly different things.
03:29Or in some instances, very different things.
03:32If we take a closer look at these four panels,
03:34member 21 actually doesn't have much rain at all over the Midlands and eastern England.
03:39Whereas 22, 23, they're quite similar in the formation of the rain.
03:43The brighter colors there and this white line affecting Northern Ireland, Wales,
03:47and pushing further north into southern Scotland.
03:49This one's got a slightly different orientation again.
03:52So, yes, quite a bit of uncertainty in just how much rain we'll see and when we'll see the heavy downpours through the weekends.
04:01But we're pretty confident that this low pressure is going to develop somewhere down to the southwest and pump up that warm and humid air.
04:07So, there is the high chance of some heavy downpours across the UK during Saturday.
04:14But they'll always be hit and miss.
04:15Some places may not see many at all.
04:17And there will be some sunshine.
04:19One of the question marks is around the exact position of the low pressure.
04:23How it interacts with the jet stream as it dips down to the south.
04:27This is, again, the Met Office main deterministic model, Ron, which is keeping it a little further south and west.
04:33But if you look at the postage stamps, but not from the Met Office model this time, from the European model, ECMWF.
04:42You can't see much detail here, but these are the same postage stamps.
04:45Hoping you can pick out that actually on more of these, there's a bit more of a swirl closer to the UK compared to the Met Office model.
04:52And that's because the European model, the parent model from that, the deterministic model, has the low pressure closer to the UK compared to the Met Office model.
05:02So, this is the European model.
05:04It's got the low sort of just to the south of the Republic of Ireland and closer into Wales and the southwest.
05:11As a result of that, the rainfall has pivoted further north into parts of Scotland, whereas the Met Office model has it just more down to the southwest.
05:21And that rain, just in a slightly different orientation, further south across Scotland and into Northern Ireland, with heavy, thundery showers potentially coming up further south as well.
05:31Compare that to the American model, which has things completely different altogether, with low pressure sitting across parts of Scotland, still generating heavy showers across a good chunk of the UK.
05:42But a very different weather pattern.
05:44And this is the least likely of those three solutions.
05:47Something between the Met Office and European model is the most likely scenario.
05:53Hence, why we're pretty confident we will see some thundery showers drifting northwards this weekend.
05:58But the devil will be in the detail.
06:00Most of the models also agree that that low will then maybe spawn other little lows, which generally sit around close to the UK, drifting slowly eastwards as we head into the new week.
06:12So, yeah, we may not have the detail pinned down, but what we are confident of through Saturday, Sunday and Monday, it's certainly going to start very warm and humid, sticky conditions, ripe for the generation of heavy showers.
06:25Thunderstorms are likely in some locations, dropping a lot of rain in a short space of time.
06:30But for those details, if you've got plans this weekend, then really do stay up to date with the forecast.
06:36Not going to be one that weather apps are particularly useful for.
06:39So make sure you're giving us a follow here on YouTube.
06:43We'll have the details in our day to day forecast and we will have more of those details closer to the time.
06:48It's not that unusual in this kind of setup at this time of year.
06:52We are talking four or five days away to not have a firm grip on the details, but we are pretty confident there will be heavy and thundery showers across some parts of the UK this weekend and into the early part of next week.
07:05What happens after that?
07:07Well, it's likely that that low pressure will ebb away, but further low pressures never too far away from the UK.
07:14This is the probability plot showing them the main eight different flavors of weather with a probability of zero up to 100 percent.
07:23Strong signal there, those darker reds for high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south.
07:28That's what we've seen through the course of the weekend.
07:30But for next week, the main signal is in this mid blue color, certainly for the middle part of the week, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
07:37That's the most likely setup. And that is where we've got low pressure sitting up to the northeast and a northwesterly airflow across the UK.
07:48It looks something like this with, let's say, low pressure sitting up to the across Scandinavia, up to the northeast of the UK and high pressure trying to build in from the southwest.
07:58Now, high pressure brings drier weather. Low pressure brings wetter weather.
08:02So the closer you are to the high, better chance of things are of staying dry.
08:06If you have to rain and you need to be closer to the low pressure, this is the most likely pressure pattern.
08:11It's not really biased, low pressure or high pressure, which is why it says unbiased, but a northwesterly airflow coming in and a pretty high chance of that's almost a week away.
08:21Fifty one percent chance. So more than half more than half the likelihood that that will be the setup.
08:28By the time we get to Wednesday, the most likely pressure pattern is the same, just that the chance has dropped ever so slightly.
08:36But again, that's a pretty strong signal at this stage. And even Thursday, even moving further forward into Friday, yes, the chance is dropping off.
08:44But still throughout next week, that is the most likely pressure pattern with low pressure sitting to the northeast, high down to the southwest, which means things will be showery, particularly close to the low with most of the showers because the north and the east largely dry in the south and particularly down to the southwest, close to that area of high pressure.
09:04So with a northwest of the airflow, generally, that would bring cooler than average conditions.
09:09But mostly around the UK at the moment, the sea is warmer than average.
09:13And at this time of year, with the strength of the sun, it'll feel warm when the sun is out.
09:17So broadly speaking, temperatures like to be close to average, feeling warmer when the sun is out.
09:24As always, as I mentioned earlier, for those day to day details, do keep up to date with everything from the Met Office, followers across social media.
09:32And if you're watching this on YouTube, do hit subscribe.
